Weekly Market Reports


7 August 2020

Friday, August 07, 2020

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 7th August 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S06/20

This Week

M06/20

Last Sale

S02/20

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1478

1476n

1638

-160

2117

-639

18

1272

1269

1428

-156

2075

-803

19

1126

1123

1279

-153

1923

-797

20

1083

1081

1229

-146

1909

-826

21 1081n 1067 1228n -147 1900n -819
 26 765n 784n 866 (M) -82 (M) 1320n -555

28

520n

520

574n

-54

1000n

-480

30

-

431n

466n (M)

-35 (M)

793n (M)

-362 (M)

MC

716n

733n

801n

-85

1040n

-324

A DISASTROUS RESUMPTION!!

While the 3 week winter recess was a welcome break from wool sales and a chance for everyone to catch their breath, it did little to enhance the positive market direction of prices we saw in the 2 opening sales of the season. As is always the case the lag time in receivals saw volumes of wool for the resumption build up to 47,000 bales and the FRX ascended by 2.5 cents to almost 72. This, coupled with a wait and see approach by many buyers, spelled disaster for the resumption of sales as talk of a price reduction of 60/80 cents was well and truly on the cards. If this was only true!! The market opened far worse than this predicted fall as all sectors fell by 40 to 165 cents. The AWEX EMI fell by 101 cents on the opening day of sales. The market steadied in the second session but still suffered losses. By week’s end the EMI retracted by 128 cents (11.5%) to just 1006 with the falls in US$ terms not as bad - a 63 cent drop to 723.  Merino fleece types fell by 145 to 165 cents while skirtings gave up 70 to 120 cents. Merino cardings also suffered heavy losses, washing types (< 3%VM) lost 50/70 cents while carbonising types > 3% VM fell by 80 to 120 cents. Crossbreds were the least affected sector with losses ranging from 40 to 60 cents.

The opening day’s fall of 101 cents was the biggest daily fall of the EMI for exactly 12 months. The fall in % terms in the opening session of 8.9% was the largest daily fall in 17 years. The weekly collapse of 128 cents is the largest since April when it lost 155 cents. The % fall of 11.5% for the week is the largest weekly fall since 1991 when the floor price was abolished and the market nosedived by 39%. The passed-in rate soared to 30% nationally, 51% in Fremantle with their opening session saw them with a pass-in rate of 65%. Another sad statistic is the year-on-year comparison of the EMI, 1006 to 1676 a year ago, a 40% drop in the market.  

No type was immune to the virtual, almost complete lack of interest from some exporters as the “wait and see” approach cruelled the market. Many in the industry questioned the 3 week recess under current circumstances should it have been shortened to 2 weeks and try to reduce the opening sale’s volume to a more manageable quantity that the subdued demand may have been able to cope with. As it turned out 42,700 went to auction with 4400 bales withdrawn and 12,800 passed-in to see only 30,000 bales sold to the trade but this looked to be far too much wool for the trade to handle at this stage. While prices collapsed competition was more widespread as European, Japanese and Indian inquiry lifted, as the major European top-maker, Modiano, bought 30% of the XB selection. Top-makers led the buying lists but enquiry further down the processing pipeline is almost nil, however, low prices can often deliver higher demand and eliminate the stumbling block of oversupply from held grower stocks and passed-in wool. Hopefully the market can steady next week with 33,000 bales on offer. No one wants a repeat of August 2019 when the EMI lost 379 cents - 1754 to 1375.

Southern Aurora Fwd Prices            

Micron

Date

Low

21

Aug/Sept 20

1060

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

4799

2

Tianyu Wool

3784

3

Endeavour Wool

3230

4

Modiano

2447

5

United Wool

1956

6

Fox & Lillie

1822

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1006 cents ê 128 cents compared with 10/07/2020

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1044 cents ê 131 cents compared with 10/07/2020

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7189 é 0.0253 compared with 10/07/2020

10 July 2020

Friday, July 10, 2020

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 10th July, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S02/20

This Week

M02/20

Last Sale

S01/20

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1638

1658

1586

+52

2175

-537

18

1428

1434

1408

+20

2143

-715

19

1279

1274

1284

-5

2043

-764

20

1229

1253

1221

+8

2033

-804

21 1228n 1253 1200n +28 2037 (M) -784 (M)
 26 - 866 816 (M) +50 (M) 1373n (M) -507 (M)

28

574n

564

564(M)

0 (M)

1045

-471

30

-

466n

466 (M)

0 (M)

861 (M)

-395 (M)

MC

801n

832n

801n

0

1010

-209

A STRONG FINISH!!

Too much wool on offer with the subdued demand for exporters to handle?? Or the realisation that, with the looming 3 week winter recess upon us, this week’s sale would be their last chance to buy any meaningful quantity of wool till early August. Luckily for growers selling in this series the latter came into play. There was a real concern that the 35,000 bales on offer was going to be more than enough for the orders that were placed and a cheaper trend was on the cards, especially for us who were selling last on the final day with the 3rd largest catalogue in Sydney (1550 bales). This was far from the case as a cautious approach by buyers on the opening day pushing the market into sellers’ favour led to a more frantic buying urgency in the final session till the final lots were sold. This saw the AWEX EMI adding 18 cents to 1134. In US$ terms a 14 cent gain to 787 was the result as the FRX looks to be stuck at a whisker below 70 cents - virtually identical to a year ago. Finer and broader fleece types were the beneficiaries of the renewed competition with < 18 and > 21 microns lifting by 20 to 50 cents while 18.5s to 20.5 were just dearer while, in Melbourne, 17.5s rose 90 cents and 21s gained 60 cents. All descriptions of skirtings gained 20 to 30 cents while cardings finished the series just in buyers’ favour. Crossbreds followed the lead of their merino counterparts with prices ascending by as much as 20 to 50 cents. In a coup for our new partnership with Carmicheal & Co. they offered the largest XB catalogue in Sydney this week, 23% bigger than any other broker. Together we had a combined catalogue of 425 bales of XB wool. 

A good finish to the market as we head into a well earned 3 week recess after what can only be described as a 6 month period that as far as the health and economic destruction of the globe has been, historically it will be judged as bad or worse than anything preceding it. Other pandemics and World Wars have taken millions more lives but the economic ramifications could easily outdo the Great Depression, only time will tell. As we stated earlier the rush to secure wool before the 3 week recess led to a strengthening market. This opening 2 week increase for the season (24 cents) and the 28 cent rise over 2 sales in  late May/early June were the only 2 times the market has put together back to back gains since consecutive weekly increases before Christmas (a 66 cent jump to 1558) and, with the opening sale in January gaining another 51 cents to 1605 (117 cents for the 3 sales), today’s prices are a mile away from those levels pre Covid-19 and it could be a very extended period of time before we get close to them again.  

An email outlining Covid-19 market information is below this market report. This is a very informative document that outlines the damage that has been done to global economies by Covid-19 and needs to be read by woolgrowers.

https://macwool.worldsecuresystems.com/LiteratureRetrieve.aspx?ID=254269

Southern Aurora Fwd Prices            

Micron

Date

Low

21

Aug/Sept 20

1170

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

4263

2

Endeavour Wool

3441

3

Lempriere

3369

4

Aust. Merino

2540

5

Fox & Lillie

2266

6

United Wool

2146

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1134 cents é 18 cents compared with 03/07/2020

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1175 cents é 16 cents compared with 03/07/2020

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6936 é 0.0016 compared with 03/07/2020



3 July 2020

Friday, July 03, 2020

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 3rd July, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S01/20

This Week

M01/20

Last Sale

S52/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1586

1598

1592

-6

2133

-547

18

1408

1409

1401

+7

2107

-699

19

1284

1291

1276

+8

2024

-740

20

1221

1219

1212

+9

2009

-788

21 1200n 1194 1197n +3 2022n (M) -828 (M)
 26 810n 816 810 0 1315n -505

28

-

564

551(M)

+13 (M)

1050 (M)

-486 (M)

30

-

466

466 (M)

0 (M)

835 (M)

-369 (M)

MC

801n

826n

814n

-13

981

-180

OFF TO A STEADY START!

With very little demand to support even a national catalogue of as few as 20,000 bales, most people thought this week’s opening sale of the season with 30,000 bales on offer was going to be a bridge too far for exporters. As we predicted last week, if new business wasn’t forthcoming, the market could’ve dropped below 1100 cents. Luckily this wasn’t to be as fresh enquiry led to spatterings of business being written. Also, with the 3 week winter recess almost upon us it was enough to keep the market’s head above water. Two solid days of selling saw the AWEX EMI add 6 cents to its value to 1116. In US$ terms the move was minimal (a 2 cent lift to 772) as the FRX traded in a range from 68.5 to 69.2 cents. All fleece microns recorded single figure shifts - 6 cents for 17s and finer and 3 to 9 cent increases for all others. Growers were happy to take the money as 98% of fleece was cleared in Sydney. Skirtings had a firm sale as all types were tending in buyers’ favour with < 16.5 micron “B” fault, best style skirtings were 30 cents dearer. Cardings continued to slide as the MCI fell by 13 cents to 801 undoing all the rises from a month ago. Crossbreds added 20 to 30 cents to their previous quotes.

Any rise is a good rise! The final 3 weeks of the season had seen the market lose 73 cents to come close to falling below 1100 cents but this week’s mini recovery might delay this unfortunate milestone mark. As was the case in May, a bit of business can lift or see the market stabilise when volumes are not large enough to fill the demand but, on the other hand, when the market is treading water or no demand is in the market even small national catalogues are too big for the market to handle. According to most exporters, a recovery in demand looks to be a long way off. Some restrictions are being lifted in some European countries, a sign that life may be returning to some form of normality but there are still many countries where the pandemic is in its 2nd wave and restrictions are being re-enforced and the brakes being put on economic recovery. As far as employment returning to pre-Covid-19 levels, it could be 12/18 months before the degree of employment is enough to allow economies to get back to full economic production. How quickly consumers feel they are able to spend their discretionary income on non-essentials will be the driver as to when the demand picks up for woolen products and the farm gate price improves.  We must ram home our advantage of a clean, green, renewable, sustainable and traceable product. If most growers were surveyed now this would be the message they would want to be conveyed to consumers when demand picks up. The 2nd sale of the season will take place next week, then we head into a 3 week winter recess. The largest sale since late March (36,000 bales) will be on offer. Hopefully there is enough enquiry about to keep the market where it is and, with the looming recess, limited opportunity to buy wool for 3 weeks.  

Southern Aurora Fwd Prices            

Micron

Date

Low

21

Aug/Sept 20

1170

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

4314

2

Endeavour Wool

3704

3

Tianyu Wool

2301

4

Lempriere

2259

5

Aust. Merino

1809

6

United Wool

1696

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1116 cents é 6 cents compared with 26/06/2020

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1159 cents ê 1 cent compared with 26/06/2020

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6920 ê 0.0022 compared with 26/06/2020

26 June 2020 - Updated

Friday, June 26, 2020

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 26th June, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S52/19

This Week

M52/19

Last Sale

S51/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1592

1571

1613

-21

2120

-528-

18

1401

1392

1438

-37

2090

-689

19

1276

1273

1314

-38

2002

-732

20

1212

1219

1243n

-31

1984n

-772

21 1197n 1194 1229n -32 - -
 26 810n 795n 815 (M) -20 (M) -

28

-

551

589n (M)

-38 (M)

1060 (M)

-491 (M)

30

-

466n

508 (M)

-24 (M)

835n (M)

-369 (M)

MC

814n

853n

858n

-50

961

-147

A SEASON TO FORGET!!

Another poor week for the wool market as the final sale of the season brought more misery for wool growers to finish a season to forget for so many reasons. Our bleak prediction that the AWEX EMI could fall below 1100 cents almost came true as it finished the season at 1110 (a fall of 29 cents) saved only by a steadying market on the final day of selling. All merino fleece microns fell by 20 to 40 cents. Skirtings had a mixed sale as finer than 17.5 held their ground as the broader types retreated by another 40 to 60 cents. Cardings also continued their cheaper trend as all types in this sector fell by 40 to 90 cents and, to round out the disappointing week, crossbreds lost 30/40 cents.

The only few good things to report on over the past season has been the incredible prices that lambs, sheep and cattle have been making for some time now and autumn rains over a vast area breaking the back of the drought. As far as wool prices go it is a season to forget. A 605 cent reduction (1715 to 1110) is the sad tale of the tape - a 35.3% fall. In US$ terms the losses were identical in % terms a 35.8 fall from 1199 to771. The FRX however is virtually unchanged at 69 cents with a peak over 75 and a low point of 55 cents. With the falling market the pass-in rate climbed to 17% up from 11 last season. All this despite the national offering being reduced by 195,000 bales to 1.47 million, an 11% drop in volume primarily due to drought. No1 buyer was Techwool Trading securing 178,000 bales; next was the new buying entity having its first full year of trading was Endeavour Wool with 111,000 bales; and 3rd was Fox & Lillie who bought 104,000 bales. The top 10 buyers bought 72% of the offering.

This is certainly a season to forget. After a run of very high wool prices that started back in 2016 the end of the “super-cycle” started almost 2 years ago but did recover until Easter last year when the current run of falling prices we are in now began. The big fall in August last year from 1754 to 1365 certainly put paid to any price recovery back to the lofty heights the EMI enjoyed. The market did seem to find a base to trade between 1500 and 1650 from September to March when it started to fall to today’s level. The reasons are varied for the falling market, from prices getting to high, (every commodity has a point when price dictates over everything else) to drought affected wools to, of course, the devastating effects of Covid-19. When will economic growth lift?? The pandemic is still rampant in many countries and, with the fear of a 2nd wave, this could delay global economic recovery by another 6/12 months as most countries are still heading into recession, let alone on the road back so consumer spending on discretionary goods like clothing and electronics will be very slow.

The new season starts next week with 31,000 bales on offer in the 3 centres. If new business isn’t forthcoming, the market will struggle to hold where it is.

Southern Aurora Fwd Prices            

Micron

Date

Low

21

Aug/Sept 20

1170

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

3017

2

Endeavour Wool

2930

3

Lempriere

2512

4

Tianyu Wool

1909

5

United Wool

1884

6

Aust. Merino

1670

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1110 cents ê 29 cents compared with 19/06/2020

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1160 cents ê 25 cents compared with 19/06/2020

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6942 é 0.0072 compared with 19/06/2020

19 June 2020

Friday, June 19, 2020
News from Macdonald & Co Woolbrokers and Carmichael & Co Woolbrokers

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 12th June, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S51/19

This Week

M51/19

Last Sale

S50/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1613

1588n

1624

-11

-

-

18

1438

1427

1473

-35

2238

-765

19

1314

1297

1360

-46

2144

-784

20

1243n

1224

1286

-43

2128n

-842

21 1229n 1223 1268n -39 2120 (M) -870 (M)
 26 - 815n 833 (M) -18 (M) -

28

-

589

613n (M)

-24 (M)

1093n

-469

30

-

490n

508 (M)

-18 (M)

914n (M)

-406 (M)

MC

858n

903n

874n

-16

997

-123

NEW ENTITY BROADENS OUR BASE

Next week marks a new chapter for our wool brokerage business. We are launching a new trading entity, Carmichael & Co Woolbrokers, to be operated by a team of former TWG Wool employees which has been wound up after 115 years of trading by its Canadian parent company Nutrien. Established in 1905 by Thomas Green, in Cooma, the company has traded for decades offering woolgrowers a personalised independent service built on the same philosophies that we have also operated on.

Manager Jason Carmichael who is a direct descendant of Thomas Green will auction the first catalogue for Carmichael & Co Woolbrokers next Tuesday. The business when founded operated in Cooma, Crookwell and Guyra, all in excess of 3000 feet above sea level which was the theory to drought-proof the business given this was around the time of the infamous Federation drought so the attraction to us was along similar lines and, although the Monaro is still in drought, we believe the strategy is a good one. Depots for Carmichael & Co are now operating in Cooma, Crookwell, Guyra, Cootamundra and Wellington with wool being stored and cored at our Dubbo woolstore and under contract principally in Cooma, Yass, Bathurst and Goulburn. Tamworth, Wagga and Yarrawonga will also see small quantities.

So it’s a great welcome from us at MacWool to the staff and clients of Carmichael & Co.

Onto the market. The softer tone late last week sadly continued in this series. With just the 2 eastern seaboard centres operating only 15,800 bales were offered, 425 more than the smallest sale of 2 weeks ago for 25 years. As is sometimes the case, tiny offerings don’t always mean a dearer market as the most recent orders and prompt shipment needs had been filled the trade was almost completely reliant on new business being written. This was not forthcoming and the market suffered. The AWEX EMI fell by 32 cents to 1139 (its lowest point for 5 years) as < 17.5 micron lost 10/25 cents while broader microns bore the brunt of the downward trend giving up 35 to 50 cents. The lower yielding wools were the driving force in the cheaper market with exporters still struggling to average these lots into their purchases. The ever-increasing volume of higher yielding types was least affected but there is still not enough of these coming through to blend successfully with the lower yielding types. Skirtings also suffered losses similar to their fleece counterparts, 40 to 60 cents back. Cardings had a mixed sale as finer types < 17.5 micron look 5/10 cents dearer while broader lots gave up 15 to 25 cents with crossbreds finishing 20 cents down.

All 3 centres are in action for the final sale of the season with 30,240 bales catalogued, the biggest sale since early April. If there is not a sprinkling of business done early next week we could see the EMI fall below 1100 cents.

 Southern Aurora Fwd Prices            

Micron

Date

Low

21

July 20

1220

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Lempriere

1710

2

Tianyu Wool

1678

3

United Wool

1677

4

Endeavour Wool

1416

5

Techwool

1415

6

Aust. Merino

851

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1139 cents ê 32 cents compared with 12/06/2020

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1185 cents ê 33 cents compared with 12/06/2020

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6870 ê 0.0075 compared with 12/06/2020

12 June 2020

Friday, June 12, 2020

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 12th June, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S50/19

This Week

M50/19

Last Sale

S49/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1624

1604

1659

-35

-

-

18

1473

1483

1504

-31

2238

-765

19

1360

1368

1389

-29

2144

-784

20

1286

1280

1318

-32

2128n

-842

21 1268n 1250 1298n -30 2120 (M) -870 (M)
 26 820n 833n 823 (M) +10 (M) -

28

624n

613

615n

+9

1093n

-469

30

-

508

500n (M)

+8 (M)

914n (M)

-406 (M)

MC

874n

896n

884n

-10

997

-123

MARKET STUMBLES, TOO MUCH WOOL??

The market started this series on a solid footing which pointed to a 3rd week of rises but, unfortunately, this was not to be as losses in the final session saw the AWEX EMI retreat after a fortnight of positive movements. The EMI fell by 12 cents to 1171 and 8 cents to 813 in US$ terms as the FRX finished the week where it started, 69.50 after peaking at 70 cents earlier in the week. The falls were uniform across all microns - 30 to 35 cents with only the better style types less affected. Skirtings had a quiet sale to be quoted as firm/unchanged while cardings couldn’t continue their rising trend as the MCI lost 10 cents as high VM CRT/STN gave up 20 cents while fine LKS gained 15/20 cents. Crossbreds were solid for < 28 micron as broader types added 10 to 15 cents.

The short-term orders that saw the market stabilise over the past month look to have been filled for the time being. A contributing factor for the reversal in this series was the high number of fleece types that were unable to average the required 70% washing yield for many Chinese orders. Most mills are still very cautious to place new orders and these are for small quantities. There is, however, a better take-up of old existing orders down the pipeline but not in the volume needed to call this a full-blown recovery as early stage processors are still reporting cash flow problems. Short wool types for open top, knitted and semi-worsted processing look to be quicker to recover than the traditional worsted sector. Scoured and carbonised carding wools are also in increasing demand as the local Chinese market shows signs of a lift in consumer spending as more retailers open their doors and entice customers back in. Current prices are attractive right down the pipeline to the retailer but their main focus is to reopen and try to clear old stock at minimal losses before placing new orders for the Northern hemisphere autumn/winter season. The pipeline from greasy wool sold to Chinese retailers can be quick when the demand kicks in.

Showfloor chatter from the buyers seems to be concerned about volumes in the new season exceeding demand. Normally there is some wool that is held back from sale till the new financial year ticks over. We can’t see this happening (certainly not with us). In fact, many growers have had the need to sell wool/stock to finance their farming operations because of the Autumn break. For those holding wool the question is when to sell? Has the market bottomed out and how long will the wait be before prices get back to acceptable levels? The OECD forecasts 2 years before global economic activity returns to a level pre Covid-19 (final 6 months of 2019) with or without a 2nd wave of infection we could be in for a long road back. Just the 2 east coast centres selling next week with only 16,800 bales on offer. Hopefully a small enough quantity to stop the market’s slide.

 Southern Aurora Fwd Prices            

Micron

Date

Low

21

July 20

1220

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Endeavour Wool

2361

2

Techwool

2213

3

United Wool

2142

4

Lempriere

1631

5

Tianyu Wool

1253

6

Aust. Merino

1218

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1171 cents é 12 cents compared with 05/06/2020

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1218 cents é 14 cents compared with 05/06/2020

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6945 é 0.0004 compared with 05/06/2020

5 June 2020

Friday, June 05, 2020

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 5th June, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S49/19

This Week

M49/19

Last Sale

S48/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1659

1622n

1653

+6

-

-

18

1504

1493

1498

+6

2318

-814

19

1389

1386

1363

+26

2193

-804

20

1318

1312

1296

+22

2179

-861

21 1298n 1299n 1275n +23 2174n -876
 26  - 823n  801n (M) +22 (M) 1448n (M) -625 (M) 

28

615n

608

600n

+15

1115n

-700

30

-

500n

459 (M)

+41 (M)

939n (M)

-439 (M)

MC

884n

879n

843n

+41

1021

-137

CAN THE MARKET RISE 3 WEEKS IN A ROW??

With just the 2 eastern seaboard centres selling this series’ supply, or lack of, was always odds-on to come out in front. The national weekly offering of 15,300 bales was the smallest in 25 years as the market followed conventional economic theory of reduced supply attracting stronger demand. With supply so light only a few extra orders in the market had demand increasing to have the AWEX EMI add 13 cents to 1183. Even more impressive was the rise in US$ terms (up by 44 cents to 821) a consequence of the FRX appreciating in favour of the A$ by 3 cents (4.5%) - a massive shift. Fine fleece indicators < 18 micron were marginally dearer (5 to 10) while 18.5s to 22s added 15 to 30 cents. Skirtings outdid their fleece counterparts climbing by 25 to 45 cents with only 24 bales passed-in as extra knitwear orders were placed. Carding continued their price recovery as all types in this sector were quoted 20 to 40 cents higher to have the MCI gain 41 cents to 884, an 89 cent (11%) rise over the past 3 weeks having reached a low point that was too hard to ignore a month ago. Crossbreds also benefitted from the renewed demand to rise 10 to 30 cents.

One thing that is noticeable is the slight improvement in yields of fleece wools. The recent rain has certainly washed some dust out and the resulting ground cover has less dust being kicked up from sheep moving through paddocks. Buyers are certainly looking forward to being able to buy higher yielding wools but will also have to contend with a higher VM %  and are still having difficulty placing types with high mid-breaks and low tensile strength - these should decrease as we move through winter.

Three weeks of rises from the past 5 sales would suggest a recovery is on the way?? No-one is prepared to go out on that limb and declare the worst is behind us. Tight supply has certainly been the main reason for the market’s steady tracking recently and, as this series showed, even as the FRX shot up to a 4-month high, it couldn’t dampen buyers’ renewed demand. Global economic conditions have not changed but, as travel and social-distancing restrictions ease and people return to full-time work, then will we see a lift in consumer spending and demand for discretionary goods as money becomes more readily available to spend on non-essentials. How long could this take?? Given the March quarter recorded a negative growth figure in every developed economy (Australia was -0.3%) and the June quarter will be worse, we are still going into a recession and not beginning to come out of it so global economic recovery may not even start till late this year/early 2021. The European Commission is providing a $750 billion recovery fund of which $500 billion is in the form of grants to help economies get back on their feet and consumers to resume work and spend again.

Fremantle joins the fray again next week as the national catalogue rises to 24,000 bales. Hopefully not enough to dampen demand given the sharp rise in the FRX.

 Southern Aurora Fwd Prices            

Micron

Date

Low

21

July 20

1270

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Endeavour Wool

2133

2

Techwool

1922

3

Aust. Merino

1596

4

Fox & Lillie

1240

5

United Wool

1014

6

Kathaytex Aust.

988

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1183 cents é 13 cents compared with 29/05/2020

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1232 cents é 20 cents compared with 29/05/2020

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6941 é 0.0300 compared with 2/05/2020

29 May 2020

Friday, May 29, 2020

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 29th May, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S48/19

This Week

M48/19

Last Sale

S47/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1653

1620

1625

+28

2409

-756

18

1498

1495

1473

+25

2361

-863

19

1363

1373

1339

+24

2211

-848

20

1296

1305

1278

+18

2203

-904

21 1275n 1299 1255n +20 2127 -922

28

600n

596

576 (M)

+20 (M)

1123 (M)

-527 (M)

30

-

459n

450 (M)

+9 (M)

935 (M)

-476 (M)

MC

843n

872n

823n

+20

1036

-193

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL??

Buyer sentiment moved to the positive this week as all sectors of the market posted gains. The AWEX EMI crept 15 cents higher to 1170. The appreciation of the FRX by 1 cent to 66.5 saw the market increase by 21 cents to 777 in US$ terms. The price increases were very even across the merino microns. 18 to 30 cents covered most types with some of the best lots commanding higher premiums as just 4% of the fleece offering was passed-in in Sydney. Finer skirtings < 17.5 micron also gained 20/30 cents with broader types unchanged. Cardings continued to add to last series’ gains by posting a 20 cent rise in the MCI, all types were 20 to 50 cents higher. Crossbreds also looked 15 to 20 cents better.

Could the market finally reach the bottom? May saw the EMI have 2 positive and 2 negative weeks to trade between 1179 and 1155 just a 24 cent movement. A solid month when compared to the wild fluctuations of January, March and April with February also having very little price shift (13 cents - 1581 to 1568). The news from China keeps improving as their industrial economy had a strong bounce back in April after facing the first 3 months of the year experiencing their first economic quarterly contraction in history. Retail and investment figures are still weak but did improve from March to April. Year-on-year retail sales were 7.5% lower for April 2020 to April last year, a vast lift from the March figures of 16% lower this year compared to 2019. Consumer spending should improve by July/August north of the Equator as apparel producers have started to look at cloth samples again and purchasing managers are enquiring on prices at these levels - a good sign for the busier Autumn/Winter period in the northern hemisphere. Retailers could be faced with a dilemma of trying to shift out-of-date/fashion expensive stock at a loss to make way for new colours, designs and styles that will be hitting retailers for their busiest time of the year.

National offerings have averaged 22,300 bales since Easter and, with just a few new and unfilled orders in the market over the last month, with limited quantity available prices can react quickly at this end of the pipeline but buyers are still reporting hesitation at the other end to book up large volumes. Demand is the key ingredient to ensuring a farm-gate price rise and that will not happen till tens of millions of people around the globe return to work and are able to start spending their disposable income again.

Drop into our Dubbo office or Macrural at Brewarrina to pick up free woollen jumpers to keep your poddy lambs warm this winter.

      All colours and sizes for both male and female lambs!

 Southern Aurora Fwd Prices            

Micron

Date

Low

21

July 20

1275

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

2594

2

Endeavour Wool

2285

3

Fox & Lillie

1275

4

Aust. Merino

1154

5

PJ Morris

1122

6

Lempriere

1018

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1170 cents é 15 cents compared with 22/05/2020

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1212 cents é 19 cents compared with 22/05/2020

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6641 é 0.0092 compared with 22/05/2020

22 May 2020

Friday, May 22, 2020

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 22nd May, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S47/19

This Week

M47/19

Last Sale

S46/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1625

1601

1683

-58

2380

-755

18

1473

1467

1517

-44

2317

-844

19

1339

1354

1391

-52

2163

-824

20

1278

1296

1332

-54

2149n

-871

21 1255n 1284 1305n -50 2129n -874

28

580n

576

576 (M)

0 (M)

1071 (M)

-495 (M)

30

-

450n

450 (M)

0 (M)

888 (M)

-438 (M)

MC

823n

856n

795n

+28

1019

-196

MARKET REVERTS TO ‘BAD OLD DAYS’!!

Was the one week wonder just that? Looking at the market report from Melbourne on Tuesday one could be forgiven that the falling market was behind us as the 20+ cent rise in >19.5s and cardings was the start of a recovery. On the other side of the continent, however, hopes were dashed as Fremantle’s market fell by 23 cents and, as Sydney joined in on Wednesday, both eastern seaboard centres fell to debunk the myth of a market that had bottomed out. By week’s end the AWEX EMI gave up another 24 cents to 1155 completely wiping out last series’ gains. In US$ terms the descending trend was offset by the rise in the FRX of 1.25% which would’ve contributed to the falling market - just a 7cent decline to 756. Merino fleece indicators fell 45 to 65 cents while skirtings had similar losses of 30 to 50 cents. Cardings bucked the cheaper trend as all types in this sector were quoted 20/40 dearer, the MCI up by 28 cents TO 823 while XBs were in buyers’ favour.

It was a very different IWTO Congress that was held this week. Scheduled to be held in China then rescheduled to Belgium it was moved to a digital platform due to the ongoing travel restrictions. One session of interest was the Market Intelligence session in which several speakers reported. Chris Wilcox from the Nat Council of Wool Selling Brokers spoke of the awful economic conditions and low consumer confidence around the globe and that all sectors of the wool pipeline from early stage processors to garment and interior textile manufacturers had seen a massive drop in  production since the new year and a sharp rise in stock levels except garment making and the recovery in raw wool demand in the near term is very limited. Madam Peng Yanli from the China Wool Textile Association also painted a very grim picture. Production of wool fabric and yarn fell by 25% in the first 3 months of 2020 in China due to domestic and global collapse in demand. This led to the value of their wool textile and garment exports to fall more sharply in the 1st quarter of the year than during the GFC in 2008. This led to a large number of their mills capacity utilisation fall below 50% but a significant number are returning  to 80% capacity as domestic demand recovers and conditions improve slowly in the textile industry but there are still many challenges ahead as cancelled retail orders offshore and tight restraints on working capital will slow the recovery. A full video of all speakers can be seen on the IWTO’s Facebook page or their YouTube channel at www.youtube.com/user/IWTOCHANNEL/featured.

Drop into our Dubbo office or Macrural at Brewarrina to pick up free woollen jumpers to keep your poddy lambs warm this winter.

      All colours and sizes for both male and female lambs!

 Southern Aurora Fwd Prices            

Micron

Date

Low

21

July 20

1275

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Tianyu Wool

2943

2

Techwool

2295

3

Fox & Lillie

1296

4

Endeavour Wool

1237

5

United Wool

968

6

Michell Aust.

893

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1155 cents ê 24 cents compared with 15/05/2020

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1193 cents ê 37 cents compared with 15/05/2020

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6549 é 0.0073 compared with 15/05/2020

15 May 2020

Friday, May 15, 2020

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 15th May, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S46/19

This Week

M46/19

Last Sale

S45/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1683

1635

1657

+26

2418

-735

18

1517

1509

1488

+29

2365

-848

19

1391

1398

1353

+38

2231

-840

20

1332

1311

1303

+29

2189n

-857

21 1305n 1276n 1278n +27 2200 (M) -924 (M)
26 770n - 790n -20 1455 -685

28

-

576

596n (M)

-20 (M)

1180 (M)

-604 (M)

30

-

450n

476 (M)

-26 (M)

981 (M)

-531 (M)

MC

795n

814n

796n

-1

1056

-261

1 WEEK WONDER!!

Growers were buoyed by the positive start to this week’s wool sale as prices on the eastern seaboard made a surprisingly about-face with fleece indicators jumping by 25 to 40 cents as business was written for immediate prompt. By Wednesday the market reverted back to the all too familiar pattern, cheaper in Melbourne and Fremantle. The AWEX EMI still did manage a rise for the week breaking a 7 day run of falls, up by 9 cents to 1179 and an 11 cent gain in US$ terms to 764 as the FRX had a stable week trading around 64.75 cents. Skirtings in Sydney followed the fleece lead to gain 20/40 cents while fine LKS lifted by 20 to 30 cents as all other types in the carding sector were unchanged. Crossbreds remain out of favour as losses of 10 to 20 cents were across the spectrum. The pass-in rate dropped to 9%, the highest clearance rate (91%) since December.

While always welcome, the rise in the market looks to be short-lived. A smattering of business was written and a positive outcome for growers in this sale but global demand has not shifted to the positive. In fact it could even fall lower as the full effects of a global recession are yet to fully impact consumers till the 2nd half of the year.

Buyers and overseas mills are reporting prices are at very competitive levels but the key component in selling any commodity is demand which is virtually running on empty so shifting unsold stock is nearly impossible. Even though spinners, weavers and retailers are coming back on line globally trying to process and on-sell tops and yarn that is 200 to 400 cents too dear is proving mission impossible and many still have greasy wool on docks still to hit the scour that were bought at prices deemed too high or, in some cases, orders have been cancelled on this wool. Many companies along the pipeline are facing financial pressure with no cash reserves set aside. Some are using this as an excuse to renegotiate expensive contracts or cancel them altogether. A vertical-integrated company in India has been rumoured to have cancelled hundreds of tonnes of greasy wool contracts. Until all this wool makes its way through the pipeline to retailers and demand picks up, prices paid to woolgrowers will continue to fall or, best case scenario, flat-line given quantities don’t exceed current volumes.

The key to consumer demand getting back to pre Covid-19 level will be the easing of lockdown restrictions and how fast people can resume work and start to spend their disposable income again. Measures are in place in many countries to get people back to work and spending money to speed up the economic recovery as soon as possible.        

 Southern Aurora Fwd Prices            

Micron

Date

Low

21

July 20

1275

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

3008

2

Tianyu Wool

2557

3

Endeavour Wool

2505

4

PJ Morris

1788

5

United Wool

1720

6

Aust. Merino

1501

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1179 cents é 9 cents compared with 08/05/2020

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1230 cents é 16 cents compared with 08/05/2020

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6476 é 0.0044 compared with 08/05/2020