Weekly Market Reports


21 September 2018

Friday, September 21, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 21st September, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S12/18

This Week

M12/18

Last Sale

S11/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney

 Yearly Change

            17       

2988

2893

3008 

-20

2228

+760

            18       

   2688   

2633

2708

-20

2072

+616

            19       

2429

2397

2439

-10

1778

+651

            20       

2294

2258

2303

-9

1588

+706

            21       

2243

2229

2274

-31

1540

+703

            22       

 -

2222

-

-31 (M)

1490 (M)

+712 (M)

            26       

1433n

1504n

1493n

-60

1101

+332

            28       

944n

959

975

-31

813

+131

            30       

728n

756n

738n

-10

586

+142

    MC

1531 

1568n

1563

-32

1113n

+418


CURRENCY MOVEMENT DICTATES PRICE
Another busy week in the world of wool: for the 4th sale in a row the AWEX EMI had a minor adjustment, shaving 27 cents (1.3%) to 2067 from the last series. For the past month the range has been from 2094 to this sale’s level. The market fell just 3 cents in $US terms to 1500 cents due to the spike in the FRX. Unlike the last 3 sales < 19 micron were caught up in the falls as losses ranged from 10 to 20 cents for 20s and finer and broader types 20/30 cheaper barring the very best fine types, virtually unchanged from previous levels. 
The skirting market suffered larger losses, finer types < 17 micron fell by 40 to 60 cents while all others gave back 20/30 cents. Cardings retreated from their new record high to see its first losses since early July (a 32 cent fall to 1531) with LKS the main culprit down by 40 to 60 cents while STN/CRT only fell by 10 to 15. Crossbreds also took a hit, losses ranged from 10 cents for broader wools to 60 cents for the finer microns.
If the Nanjing Wool Conference was the stimulus for an immediate dearer market we might have to wait a bit longer to see a lift. The ascendency of the $A looked to be the main driver behind this week’s fall to delay any positive movement for the time being. More news from the conference was the China/US trade war with textiles caught up in about 10% impact of the $400 billion tariff total ($4 billion) but thankfully the impact is on industrial Geo textiles and carpet exports to the USA. Of course price was a hot topic for the Chinese but not complaining about these new levels, more trying to adapt to the new prices and survive with better management strategies and improving production techniques to allay any further costs as they are fully aware of the impact of the drought on the quality of the wool arriving at their mills and the effect on the shrinking volume.
The woollen sector is under pressure as the double-faced fabric sector is suffering from high finished stock levels, excess capacity, retailers wanting more complicated products and subdued demand and the “fake fur” segment is flat at best. The positive sector which has led the price revival over the past 2 years is the sport and active-wear market that has expanded rapidly and will continue to do so especially from demand from the local Chinese consumer. The Chinese manufacturers are concentrating on this growing local demand rather than higher margin export markets where more volume can be sold to the “young hip” Chinese consumer that wants to support locally made products.   
Another good week as ram sales continue around the state.  Gullengamble from Yeoval sold 121 rams for a top price of $6500 to average $2336. Parkdale from Dubbo had a 100% clearance with a top price of $2800 to average $1120. Coddington Uardry Polls from Wellington cleared all 100 rams to average $2106 with a top price of $9000 and the famous Merryville Stud at Boorowa cleared 140 rams with a top price of $6000 twice to average $1986.
Congratulations must go to Steven Mudford from Gilgandra who broke the world record for a single stand shearing of wethers at the Parkdale Stud. He shore 373 for the 8 hours, averaging 93/run, that works out at 1 sheep every one and half minutes!! Well done.  Market direction next week will depend on the FRX movements so the experts say.  

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Seatech

4099 

2

Techwool

2654

3

Fox & Lillie

2188

4

Kathaytex Aust.

2092

5

New England

1417

6

Tianyu Wool

1186

7

Aust. Merino

1046

8

Lempriere

994

9

PJ Morris

992

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2067 cents é 27 cents compared with 14/09/2018

 

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2140 cents é 00 cents compared with 14/09/2018

 

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7257 ê 0.0079 compared with 14/09/2018


14 September 2018

Friday, September 14, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 14th September, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX

INDEX

This Week 

S11/18 

This Week

M11/18

Last Sale

S10/18

Sydney

Change 

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly 

Change

17

3008  

2944

2989

+19    

2207

+801

18

2708 

2652

2669

+39    

2078

+630

19 

2439 

2438

2443

-4    

1775

+664

20 

2303 

2306

2324

-21   

1595

+708

21 

2274 

2254

2285

-11

1547

+727

22 

2253

-6 (M)

1463 (M)

+790 (M)

26 

1493n 

1526n

1486n

+7

1107

+386

28 

975 

968

968

+7

816

+159

30 

738n 

743n

728n

+10

601

+137 

MC 

1563 

1575n

1563

0

1094

+469

MILLION DOLLAR RAM SALE!

Plenty happening in the world of wool this week as the market stagnated, a record breaking ram sale and the annual Nanjing wool conference. The market followed last week’s pattern - a dearer opening session ending with a softer tone on the final day. The AWEX EMI advanced by just 6 cents to 2094 (37% higher than a year ago) helped along by the sub 19 micron indicators gaining 10 to 45 cents as the broader edge, 20 to 24 slipped by 10/20. The FRX remained stable around the 72 cent mark after falling to below 71 cents early in the week, its lowest point for 2 years. This enabled the EMI in $US to also add 6 cents to its value, up to 1503 as just 68 bales of FLC were passed-in in Sydney.

All types of skirtings made subtle gains, 10 to 20 cents depending on the level of VM and style. There was very little change in the carding market, the only movement being fine micron LKS back by 10 to cents. Crossbreds also had a sedate sale to have most types appreciate by 5/10 cents.

On property ram sales started with a bang. The first cab off the rank was long time wool client Kerin Poll from Yeoval with a massive 400 ram catalogue. 80+ registered bidders competed on every ram to achieve a top price of $9,000 to average $3026 with a 100% clearance. The sale grossed $1.21m to set a new national record for a single on-property ram sale and certainly set an incredible tone for the remainder of the ram selling season. Some of their new buyers from Victoria, Tasmania and Southern NSW were composite breeders aiming to join theses new rams to their ewes to put a bit more value into their wool clips. Well done to all at Kerin Poll, a great result. Another Macwool client, the famous Haddon Rig stud at Warren, held their sale on Thursday offering 150 horned and 60 poll rams with the top price going to a poll ram at $14,000. In an ever-increasing trend where studs are breeding both types the average for the polls was higher then their horned counterparts, $2887 to $2148 with a 91% clearance  and overall average of $2357. Again, great results for both studs considering the dire season.

It was a situation of “wait and see” this sale as the Nanjing Wool Conference was held and the outcomes will become more apparent in the next few sales. Hard to gauge from bleary-eyed delegates how the mood in China is as most are still in-bound or recovering from a solid 3 days of business and pleasure!!. What everyone is acutely aware of is the shortfall of wool when compared to last season, a dramatic 48,000 bales (13%) or 1 selling week of wool!!  Also on the radar at the conference is the recently introduced environmental protection legislation in China and the cost for mills to implement these new laws, the biggest drama being the effects on scouring effluent and waste water and sludge disposal as water treatment devices are adding significant costs to the scouring process. The USA and China trade war was also discussed at length, more on this next week. 35,000 bales on offer next week, no real change expected.

                        Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 14 September, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

31-Oct-18

2210

2210



Main Buyers (this week)

1

Tianyu

3946

2

Techwool

3703

3

Seatech Ind.

3318

4

Fox & Lillie

2518

5

Aust. Merino

2462

6

Kathaytex

2288

7

Lempriere

2110

8

Michell Aust.

1887

9

New England

1057

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2094cents é 6 cents compared with 7/09/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2162 cents é 9 cents compared with 7/09/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7178 é 0.0010 compared with 7/09/2018

7 September 2018

Friday, September 07, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 7th September, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week  

S10/18  

 This Week  

M10/18 

Last Sale   

S09/18  

Sydney Change

Last Year

Sydney 

Sydney Yearly

Change

17 

2989    

2903    

2968    

+21    

2273    

+716    

18 

2669    

2616    

2651    

+18    

2139    

+530    

19 

2443    

2414    

2418    

+25    

1839    

+604    

20 

2324    

2296    

2311    

+13    

1646    

+678    

21 

2285    

2259    

2286    

-1    

1597    

+688    

22  

-    

2259    

-    

-23 (M)    

1509n (M)    

+750 (M)    

26  

1486n    

1521n    

1489    

-3    

1141    

+345    

28  

968    

974    

965    

+3    

852    

+116    

30  

728n    

739     

731n    

-3    

636    

+92    

MC 

1563    

1583n    

1560    

+3    

1089n    

+474    

HOLDING PATTERN AWAITING NEW DIRECTION

As each week passes the picture becomes clearer about the effect drought is having on supply. Whilst production in our area has been impacted gradually over the last 12 months, a much wider area is now feeling the brunt of lower numbers and reduced cut. Added to this is the higher market over the past season that has flushed out nearly all held wool either on farm or in store. For the first seven selling weeks of this season there has been 39,000 bales less wool offered compared to last season. That is roughly the same amount of wool that was offered this week, so already we have dropped a full week’s offering!
The market opened on Wednesday full of promise and looked to be continuing the previous week’s upward trend but on Thursday the dollar rebounded slightly and by the end of the day the wool market had retreated roughly the same amount and the end result was little change. The crossbred offering was the smallest in three years but it had little effect on price movements. Generally, the finer microns continued to hold promise but the increasing amount of drought affected dusty wools, even in the Southern market, are having an impact.
The Nanjing Wool Market conference will be held in just over a week’s time and, as this is now a focal gathering not just for Chinese buyers but globally, there is a bit of “wait and see” till after the conference. Some pundits feel that supply pressure is building and the conference will no doubt focus on this and then we expect a clearer direction.
Over the coming weeks all wool levy payers will receive information about the upcoming Wool Poll. Every three years wool growers get the opportunity to vote on the level of wool levy they are prepared to pay. There will be 5 options ranging from 0% to 3%. Currently it is 2% and has been since AWI commenced nearly 20 years ago. The levies are proportioned out to 40% research and development and 60% marketing and promotion. Marketing was only reintroduced in 2010 and there is good evidence to suggest that this component has reaped good rewards for levy payers. Up until this year wool production has been relatively stable (around 340-350 mkg) and demand has increased to a point where the EMI has risen 783 cents (60%) in two years. The most recent production forecast has it falling to 322 mkg. Many of us believe it will be lower than that. There will be public discussion no doubt that AWI can survive on a lower levy. I am concerned that production will not bottom out for some time yet and now is not the time to prune heavily. We will have more on this as the weeks progress.

Finally, IWTO is running a promotion on our fibres great properties through an Instagram promotion of your farm videos and photos of sheep and wool.  Please see the attachment with our weekly report and join in to promote our great fibre worldwide. A smaller offering of 35,000 bales will commence Wednesday.


   

NCWSBA Weekly Newsletter Supplements (Sept 2018) NCWSBA Weekly Newsletter Supplements (Sept 2018) (400 KB)


                                
Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 7 September, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

23-Jan-19

2150

2150

 

Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

5721

2

Seatech Ind.

3944

3

Kathaytex Aust.

2960

4

Lempriere

2286

5

Aust. Merino

2104

6

Fox & Lillie

1685

7

Michell Aust.

1209

8

Tianyu

1181

9

PJ Morris Wool

862

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2088cents ê 2 cents compared with 31/8/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2153 cents é 8 cents compared with 31/8/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7168 ê 0.0084 compared with 31/8/2018

31 August 2018

Friday, August 31, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 31st August, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week 

S09/18 

This Week 

M09/18 

Last Sale 

S07/18 

Sydney 

Change 

Last Year 

Sydney 

 Sydney Yearly  

Change

17

2968   

2924   

2917

+51   

2315   

+653   

18

2651   

2639   

2617

+34   

2186   

+465   

19

2418   

2426   

2393   

+25   

1838   

+580   

20

2311   

2302   

2303   

+8   

1643   

+668   

21

2286   

2283   

2280   

+6   

1598   

+684   

22

-   

2282   

2259n   

+17 (M)   

1516 (M)   

+766 (M)   

26

1489   

1548n   

1489n   

0   

1125   

+364   

28

965   

980   

930n   

+35   

848   

+117   

30

731n   

719   

-   

+8 (M)   

628 (M)   

+91 (M)   

MC

1560

1592n   

1526   

+34   

1086n   

+474   

MARKET PLEASES GROWERS AND BUYERS

The wild swings of the past fortnight weren’t evident this series as a much more measured approach to buying was on display. This week saw the opening “designated superfine sale” of the season. The superior style, sub 19 micron selection in Sydney that had attracted wools from WA and VIC was well received by the exporters as both days saw steady rises for the finer, better style types. By week’s end the 18 and finer indicators added 35 to 50 cents, 18.5/19s gained 25 cents and 20s and broader, although in short supply, weren’t neglected to finish in sellers’ favour by up to 10 cents.  As is the case when a larger volume of these superior types hit the market, the Italian buyers come to the fore with premiums on some lots up to 150 cents higher than the indicator, as both days had a total clearance in both rooms of 98.4%. The Northern Regional Indicator added 28 cents to finish at 2145. The EMI added 22 cents to finish the sale at 2090. The fall in the FRX did no harm either falling to 72.65 cents on Thursday night, back by 0.80 of a cent from last Friday.
Skirtings also benefitted from the superior style selection on offer to have increases for both selling days for a combined rise of 50 to 70 cents for < 19 micron and below 5%VM. All other broader and burrier types were quoted as fully firm. Cardings continued on their merry way as double digit gains over the 2 days saw the MCI lift by 34 cents to 1560 cents. LKS and CRT led the charge with advancements of 40 to 50 cents with STN in sellers’ favour. Crossbreds turned last sale’s cheaper trend to the good as the finer end (< 28micron) looked solid with the 28 and coarser types dearer by 20 to 35 cents.
National totals rose to 35,000 bales as Fremantle rejoined the selling roster after a week’s recess but all things didn’t go to plan as the Melbourne sale scheduled for Thursday was postponed till this morning due to the massive fire in a shed next door (an old woolstore) to the Brooklyn wool stores that started yesterday morning but, although contained, could still burn well into next week. Black plumes of smoke from asbestos and wool grease could be seen as far away as Geelong.
A good sale as the excellent selection (in Sydney) and favourable FRX movements helped the market appreciate into positive territory. Another factor could be the release of consumer confidence figures in major wool consuming countries. In the US the figure is just below the peak of April and the highest since 2000. This is the same for the European Union, China and Japan but surprisingly confidence has waned in Sth Korea.

The National Ram Sale was held in Dubbo this week. In what might be (but hopefully not) a disturbing trend just 56% of the rams offered were sold. Honors went to the South Australian stud, Orrie Cowie, with a top price of $22,000 bought by the Brumpton family in QLD. A national catalogue of 38,000 bales is on offer next week - a repeat of this series would be good!!

                        Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 31 August, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

14-Nov-18

2175

2175

 

Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

4464

2

Seatech Ind.

3336

3

Fox & Lillie

3013

4

Tianyu

2736

5

Kathaytex Aust.

2679

6

Modiano

1893

7

PJ Morris Wool

1771

8

Lempriere

1700

9

Michell Aust.

1231

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2090 cents é 22 cents compared with 24/8/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2145 cents é 28 cents compared with 24/8/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7252 ê 0.0092 compared with 24/08/2018

24 August 2018

Friday, August 24, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 24th August, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S08/18

This Week

M08/18

Last Sale

S07/18

Sydney Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2917

2915

3007

-90

2274

+643

18

2617

2589

2682

-65

2169

+448

19

2393

2386

2465

-72

1862

+531

20

2303

2291

2376

-73

1663

+640

21

2280

2269

2341

-61

1640n

+640

22

2259n

2265

-

-98 (M)

1532 (M)

+733

26

1489n

1538n

1507

-18

1149n

+340

28

930n

970

944

-14

883n

+47

30

-

711

736 (M)

-25 (M)

660 (M)

+51(m)

MC

1526

1534n

1515

+11

1102

+424

ERRATIC UPS AND DOWNS FRUSTRATE GROWERS

The fickle and erratic nature of the wool market has been no more evident than over the past 2 sales. After the sky-rocketing ascendency of prices last sale (the largest weekly rise in 16 years) the market retreated almost as rapidly on the opening day of this week’s sale. It was a market of 2 complete contrasts from buying wool like there was “no tomorrow” in sale 7 to drawing bids from exporters this week was like “pulling teeth”!! The market collapsed from the opening lot. Losses ranged from 35 to 90 cents in the opening session to a day of consolidation to end the series where 19.5/20 micron were the only microns to suffer as all microns retreated by 60 to 95 cents for the week. By week’s end the AWEX EMI gave up 48 cents to fall back to 2068. As the FRX appreciated for its low point of 72.55 a week ago to mid 73 cents, this saw the EMI fall just 18 cents in US$ terms to 1519. No micron or type was immune from the massive change in buyer sentiment as discounts for faults opened up to excessive levels as some good spec types did perform well, outdoing their indicators by up to 40 cents but some lots were well shy of their value (100 to 150 cents clean) as we passed-in 33% of our fleece offering.
Skirtings followed a similar pattern to the fleece wools - an opening session fall of 30 to 40 cents for all types and styles regardless of VM, colour or other faults only to finish the sale on a solid note. Cardings were the only sector to end the sale in positive territory, the MCI up by 11 cents to 1526 due to LKS and CRT going ahead by 10 to 40 cents. We had a line of LKS from Tottenham make an incredible 1158 cents (1812 cents clean). Crossbreds were also caught up in the negative tone as losses ranged from 15 to 25 cents.

The rapid descent of the market after the vertical rises of the previous sale caught growers and brokers by surprise as no-one was talking of a correction let alone the magnitude of this week’s fall. Quantity was vastly reduced as only the 2 east coast centres were in operation with 29,700 bales on offer and the lift in the FRX wasn’t considered to be a factor in market movements. The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee met and has reviewed its forecast for the 2018/2019 season. After considering industry data and seasonal conditions the committee now predicts shorn wool production at 320mkg – a drop of 5.7% since its April forecast. This may force buyers to supply-driven pricing rather than demand-driven expectations. More volatility like the past 2 sales could become commonplace. Some good judges think medium microns, 19s and broader, have conquered their Everest but finer types < 19 micron may still improve; only time will tell. Fremantle rejoins the selling roster next week with just 35,000 bales on offer.

                                    Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 24 August, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

19-Sep-18

2280

2280

 

 

           Main Buyers (this week)

1

Seatech Ind.

2955

2

Fox & Lillie

2650

3

Techwool

2455

4

Aust. Merino

2227

5

Kathaytex

2182

6

Lempriere

1618

7

Tianyu

1583

8

PJ Morris Wool

1361

9

New Eng. Wool

1304

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2068cents ê 48 cents compared with 17/8/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2117 cents ê 46 cents compared with 17/8/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7344 é 0.0082 compared with 17/8/2018

17 August 2018

Friday, August 17, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 17th August, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week   

S07/18   

This Week   

M07/18   

Last Sale   

S06/18  

Sydney  

Change 

Last Year  

Sydney  

Sydney Yearly 

Change  

17  

3007  

3006  

2816  

+52  

2282  

+725  

18  

2682  

2659  

2478  

+89  

2201  

+481  

19  

2465  

2459  

2292  

+40  

1924  

+541  

20  

2376  

2387  

2232  

+17  

1724  

+652  

21  

2341  

2367  

2210  

+18  

1668  

+673  

22  

-  

2350  

2184n  

+16 (M)  

1602 (M)  

+748 (M)  

26  

1507  

1554  

1430n  

+35  

1180  

+327  

28  

944  

984  

871  

+30  

899  

+45  

30  

709  

736  

648  

+30  

682  

+27  

MC  

1515  

1558n

1466  

+14  

1110  

+405  

BUT WAIT......THERE’S MORE??
The improving market late last week gave no real indication as to what might unfold this sale. All participants were pleased with the outcome of the opening series and a slight improvement in the market and slowly gaining momentum as sales commenced to the tune of 20 cents and maybe up to 50 cents was the most likely scenario for this week. How wrong we were!! The market exploded into action from the 1st lot with all fleece indicators across the 3 centres skyrocketing by 100 to 160 cents smashing regional indicator and individual micron records. The final day wasn’t as frantic as just the Eastern seaboard was in action - still most microns increasing by double digits (up to 90 cents). By week’s end the AWEX EMI had escalated by 126 cents (6.33%) to 2116 easily surpassing the June record of 2073. The depreciating FRX against the US$ (down by 2.20 cents - 3.2% - on Wednesday night to 72.20) had the EMI in US$ adding 56 cents to last sale’s value to 1537. Nothing was immune to the intense competition as all microns and types, regardless of style, VM or other faults put on 130 to 200 cents as 99% of fleece was snapped up by the trade.
Room 2 wools weren’t to be outdone either. Skirtings were in hot demand like their fleece counterparts. Big opening day rises followed by steadier increases to finish the sale had all types and descriptions, regardless of faults, climb by 110 to 150 cents. Just 28 bales of the 5684 offered nationally failed to sell, a 99.4% clearance. Cardings also looked to be caught up in the frantic buying frenzy to secure quantity as LKS and CRT led the charge in this category. Fine types
< 19.5 and < 5% VM jumped by 50 to 80 cents while STNs remained solid. Crossbreds shook off last week’s negative tone to recapture those losses. Prices improved by 60 to 80 cents across all the micron ranges and categories - Fremantle selling all of its 115 bale selection!!

A great sale this week as the combination of high demand, reduced supply and favourable FRX combined to have buyers scrambling for quantity as price limitations took a back seat and buyers took no prisoners in the battle to get volume as the competition from, not only China, but Europe and India at the forefront of the bidding war as no one mentioned “panic buying” moreso “aggressive”!!. The 99 cent gain on Wednesday and the weekly rise of 126 cents were the largest daily and weekly gains since 2002 to push 18 to 24 micron prices in all 3 centres into new record territory. Quantity again is reduced next week as just the 2 East coast centres offer 29,000 bales - where to from here???

                  Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 17 August, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

26-Sep-18

2205

2280

21

12-Dec-18

2150

2150

21

13-Feb-19

2110

2110

 

          Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

5543

2

Fox & Lillie

1091

3

Aust. Merino

2562

4

Seatech Ind.

2561

5

Lempriere

2553

6

Endeavour Wool

2180

7

Kathaytex Aust.

2156

8

PJ Morris Wool

1980

9

Michell Aust.

1806

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2116cents é 126 cents compared with 10/8/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2163 cents é 136 cents compared with 10/8/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7262 ê 0.0176 compared with 10/8/2018


10 August 2018

Friday, August 10, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 10th August, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

 AWEX INDEX

This Week

S06/18

This Week

M06/18

Last Sale

S02/18

 Sydney Change

   Last Year

    Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2816

2831

2793n

+23

2227

+589

18

2478

2480

2435

+43

2153

+325

19

2292

2328

2282

+10

1853

+439

20

2232

2246

2242

-10

1648

+584

21

2210

2230

2224n

-14

1576

+634

22

2184n

2201

2199n

-15

1519n

+665

26

1430n

-

1519n

-89

1119

+311

28

871

886

924

-53

817

+54

30

648

673

683n

-35

608

+40

MC

1466

1477n

1435

+13

1099n

+367

MARKET OPENS ON A SOLID FOOTING BUT DROUGHT STILL DOMINATES

Wool sales resumed after the 3 week annual winter recess. Of course with the break came an increase in volume - upwards of 50,000 bales rostered (8,800 more than Sale 2) but around 4,000 bales shy of the corresponding sale last year. As is always the case after a recess buyers were keen to talk the market down due to the big offering. Apparently, following Sale 2, a major buyer put offers out 20/30 cents below where the market finished and these offers were snapped up by Chinese mills and showfloor talk had the market retreating by up to 100/150 cents. The market opened on Tuesday with the anticipated fall of 10 to 30 cents for all fleece microns bar 18/18.5s. Was this the start of the 150 cent fall?? Thankfully not - a complete change in sentiment entered the auction rooms for the final 2 days to have < 19.5 micron to the good by 10 to 75 cents as broader types lost 10 to 20 cents. The AWEX EMI added a modest 6 cents to 1990 and 18 cents to 1480 in US$ terms as the FRX has barely moved either side of 74 cents for a month. One thing of note was the discounts for < 2% VM in fleece lots looking to have gone back to very little or, in some cases with the right specs, no penalty, some lots up to 20 cents above the indicator. Even burry types > 2% looked to have their discounts softened when compared to end June/early July when these penalties looked excessive.
Skirtings followed the lead of the fleece types, an opening cheaper session followed by renewed buyer activity to end the sale to have all descriptions and VM levels 20 dearer for the week. Cardings also mirrored their merino counterparts. After a cheaper opening session they came home with a wet sail to finish the week 10 to 20 cents higher. Crossbreds also took their lead from the merino sector but a last day recovery couldn’t push them into positive territory. The losses were in fact heavy, 26s down by 90 cents while 28 to 30 micron fell by 35 to 50 cents whereas the broader microns were unchanged. These big falls probably attributed to the Northern Hemisphere shearing still under way which is virtually all XB wool leading to an over-supply of > 26 micron wool.

A good way to kick off sales after the 3 week break as the bigger quantity was easily absorbed into buyers’ inventory. European buyers and forward sellers lead the way especially on the better style/finer types which forced the Chinese mills to join the fray to meet supply requirements, despite the US$ now appreciating by 10% against the CNY-Chinese yuan. Volume drops back to 37,000 bales next week. Should be solid to dearer.

          Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 10 August, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

19-Sep-18

2150

2150

21

12-Dec-18

2075

2075

21

10-Apr-19

2010

2010

 

Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool 

7636

2

Fox & Lillie

5323

3

Lempriere

3837

4

PJ Morris

3233

5

Aust. Merino

3205

6

Endeavour Wool

2880

7

Kathaytex  Aust.

2486

8

Modiano

2073

9

Tianyu  Wool

1533

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1990cents é 9 cents compared with 13/7/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2027 cents é 14 cents compared with 13/7/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7438 é 0.0056 compared with 13/7/2018


13 July 2018

Friday, July 13, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 13th July, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

 AWEX INDEX

This Week

S02/18

This Week

M02/18

Last Sale

S01/18

 Sydney Change

   Last Year

    Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2793n

2780

2827 n

-34

2196

+597

18

2435

2443

2443

-8

2108

+327

19

2282

2269

2289

-7

1824

+458

20

2242

2246

2261

-19

1607

+635

21

2224n

2239

2251 n

-27

1530

+694

22

2199n

2236

2268 (M)

-32 (M)

1477n

+722

26

1519n

1569n

-

-

1108

+411

28

924

963

964

-40

766

+158

30

683n

684

664

+19

560

+123

MC

1435

1461n

1470

-17

1139n

+296

MARKET A BIT CHEAPER BUT STILL VERY GOOD

This sale was the final before the annual 3 week winter recess. 40,500 bales were on offer nationally down from 43,000 the week before. With just 2 sales done for the year, there is a differential of 13,000 bales fewer compared to last season. The market opened on a cheaper note but falls were not to the extent of the previous series. The market finished the week on a positive note as all fleece indicators clawed back some of the opening day’s losses. The AWEX EMI gave up 13 cents for the sale to finish on 1981. In US$ terms the fall equated to a 9 cent fall to 1462 as the FRX did fluctuate up to 74.75 at one stage before settling at last week’s level. Most microns (17.5 to 20) lost 10 to 20 cents with finer types below 17 and broader microns, 21 and coarser lost 30 cents - a good outcome when compared to the opening sale of the season.
The losses in the skirting sector also slowed considerably when compared to S01. Most types lost 10 to 20 cents bar the limited selection of superior types with < 3% VM that were in buyers’ favour. Cardings also had similar falls to the skirting sector - 10 to 20 cents across the board. Crossbreds had a mixed sale as the finer microns below 28 retreated by up to 40 cents with broader microns dearer by 20 cents.
Not a bad result to end sales as some show floor talk had the market repeating last sale’s falls. Invariably, this was not the case as all participants like to see the market end on a reasonable note before an extended break. The pass-in rate was nearly halved as most brokers took a cautious approach to valuing this sale’s catalogues and we even sold a few passed-in lots from last sale gaining small increases. Even though the market has lost 92 cents over the past 3 sales from the peak of S51 (at 2073) we are still an amazing 30% or 459 cents higher than a year ago. As the table above illustrates, the biggest gains are in the 20/22 micron range averaging a 684 cent leap.  These are incredible rises as buyers have become increasingly concerned about the lack of 80 to 100mm length wool in this micron range with the ongoing drought keeping a lot of sheep in the finer than 20 micron. The other standout micron was 26s, up by 411 cents.

As buyers catch their breath and plan their strategies for Spring they are under no illusions about the drought which is the worst since the early eighties and, in some areas, back to the sixties and the devastating effect on sheep numbers as most growers have cut numbers back to the bare essentials and now the tragic situation of having to offload scanned-in-lamb ewes, surely this rates as a natural disaster and Government intervention at the federal level should happen to save growers’ core breeders. This drought is far from over with the likelihood of easily accessible grain and hay to buy in the spring and summer is ever increasingly further and further away.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 13 July, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

10-Oct-18

2120

2120

21

12-Jun-19

1920

1930

 

Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

3632

2

Tianyu  Wool

3418

3

Fox & Lillie

3342

4

Aus. Merino Exp.

3247

5

Endeavour Wool

3101

6

Seatech Ind.

2900

7

Kathaytex  Aus.

2794

8

United Wool

1616

9

PJ Morris

933

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1981cents ê 13 cents compared with 6/7/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2013 cents ê 13 cents compared with 6/7/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7382 é 0.0005 compared with 6/7/2018


6 July 2018

Friday, July 06, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 6th July, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

 AWEX INDEX

This Week

S01/18

This Week

M01/18

Last Sale

S52/17

 Sydney Change

   Last Year

    Sydney

Sydney Yearly Change

17

2827 n

2791

2872n

-45

2192

+635

18

2443

2440

2524

-81

2118

+325

19

2289

2286

2368

-79

1845

+444

20

2261

2273

2346

-85

1618

+643

21

2251 n

2272

2334n

-83

1529

+722

22

2268

2336 (M)

-68 (M)

1468 (M)

+800 (M)

28

964

981

1029

-65

759

+205

30

664

675

705

-41

549

+115

MC

1470

1490

1482

-12

1164

+306

SEASON STARTS WITH A DOWNWARD THUD!!

The opening sale of the new season was nothing to crow about as the softer trend to finish the last sale of the ’17 season accelerated to have the AWEX EMI give up 62 cents (3%) to fall below the 2000 cent mark for 5 weeks to 1994. The fall wasn’t as big in US$ terms - 42 cents to 1471 as the A$ remained fairly steady at just below 74 cents. The fall was the largest weekly decline in six years as prices across the entire spectrum fell on both days. By week’s end most microns (17 to 22s) retreated by 45 to 85 cents. Only the very best lots were least affected, down only marginally with the odd lot actually dearer that had the right specs that suited Italian mills. The types that suffered heavier losses contained VM levels above 2%, low nk/t readings and high mid-breaks. Some lots were punished severely, almost neglected, as buyers picked the eyes out of the catalogue with some discounts way above what the losses read on the AWEX report resulting in a 30% pass-in rate in our fleece catalogue - our highest for some years.

Skirtings also took their biggest hit for some time as consistent losses over the 2 selling days had most types pulled back by 50 to 80 cents with > 5%VM affected more than their low VM counterparts with the very odd, better style/low VM type escaping the large losses. Crossbreds had a similar sale to the merino sector, losses ranging from 40 to 65 cents for the 28/30 micron wools with falls for other microns restricted to 20 cents. Cardings were the least affected of any sector as all types and descriptions gave up 10 to 20 cents for the sale.

A tough sale to commence the new selling season as the biggest catalogue since early April had some exporters offside regarding the big increase in quantity. This rise in quantity is a common occurrence as the new financial year ticks over as some growers look to spread their income over the 2 financial years. The increased volume should have been of no surprise to buyers. The rapid rise in the market since Easter (280 cents) may have caught up with the buyers as well. Everyone expected a correction but as to when and how much was the question no-one could answer till now. Another factor was the significant movements of the FRX of the Chinese Renminbi, CNY against the US$ over the past 3 weeks, 7% in favour of the US$ meaning Chinese mills had to find 7% more money to fund their purchases - a bridge too far this week!! Despite the sharp downwards adjustment the market is 470 cents (30%) higher than 12 months ago. Next week is the final sale before the 3 week annual winter recess with 41,000 bales on offer, hopefully the market can hang on??

Main Buyers (this week)

1

Seatech Ind.

4343

2

Fox & Lillie

3649

3

Tianyu  Wool

3483

4

Techwool

3212

5

Aust. Merino

2896

6

Kathaytex  Aust.

2270

7

G Schneider

2088

8

Michell Aust.

1905

9

Endeavour Wool

1657

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1994 cents ê 62 cents compared with 29/6/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2026 cents ê 62 cents compared with 29/6/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7377 é 0.0020 compared with 29/6/2018

29 June 2018

Friday, June 29, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 29th June, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S52/17

This Week

M52/17

Last Sale

S51/17

Sydney Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2872n

2867

2869n

+3

2200n

+672

18

2524

2513

2538

-14

2130

394

19

2368

2369

2374

-6

1859

+509

20

2346

2351

2356

-10

1634

+712

21

2334n

2350

2324

+10

1543

+789

22

2328

2336

2340n (M)

+4 (M)

1476 (M)

+670 (M)

26

1535n

-

1545

-10

1103

+568

28

1029

1028

1052

-23

756

+273

30

705

695

709

-4

558

+147

MC

1482

1500

1495

-13

1184n

+298

MARKET SURGE SLOWS

Our last sale this week for the 2017/2018 season saw Fremantle return after not offering last week and push the quantity for the three Centres to 31,784 bales, well up on last week’s offering. Early in the week we heard from the exporters that they expected the market to slow and slow it did. The Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) slipped to 2056 cents down 17cents.

The market saw the finer fleece microns hardest hit, retreating 20 to 40 cents, the 19 to 20 micron fleece were off 10 to 20 cents. Interestingly a very small offering of 21 micron fleece wools managed to remain in record territory rising a further 10 cents.

We continue to hear from the show floor that Chinese mills want more supply of 21 to 22 micron long 100mm plus merino wools. Unfortunately with our continuing drought, most clips are finer and many have shorn early reducing the length.

We saw this week that short fleece wools (60mm and less) and poorer, very dusty types were very neglected by the buying trade. The skirting types also felt the slowing with broken and bellies slipping 30 to 50 cents for the week. Oddments also were off 5 to 10 cents and crossbreds down 5 to 20 cents, 30 micron being the most affected.

As the season closes it is interesting to see which exporters buy the most. Our top three exporters this season were:

  1. Techwool Trading with 13.6% or 242,410 bales
  2. Fox and Lillie with 10.6% or 189,003 bales
  3. Kathaytex with 7.9% or 140,721 bales.

So next week we start the 2018/2019 season with Sale 01. Currently there are 43,232 bales rostered for sale. A larger quantity as many growers wait for this sale to sell in the new financial year. Let’s hope that this larger quantity does not slow the market further. Macdonald and Co will offer on Thursday, 5th July, 961 bales.

All eyes are now on the dollar holding steady at 73 cents and assisting this market to stabilise. Keeping in mind that the falls we are seeing are miniscule when looking at the rises we have had this season. Some rain has been reported to us. Let’s hope we are seeing the end of this dry.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 29th June, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

4-Jul- 18

2280

2300

21

12-Sep-18

2205

2205

21

17-Oct- 18

2135

2135

21

12-Dec-18

2100

2100

 

 

Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool  Trading

5144

2

Fox & Lillie

3476

3

Seatech Ind.

2442

4

Kathaytex  Aus.

2075

5

Tianyu  Wool

1980

6

Aus. Merino Exp.

1871

7

Endeavour Wool

1585

8

Michell Aust.

1232

9

PJ Morris Wool

591

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2056 cents ê 17 cents compared with22/6/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2088 cents ê 22 cents compared with 22/6/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7357 ê 0.0004 compared with 22/6/2018