Weekly Market Reports


8 November 2019

Friday, November 08, 2019

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 8th November, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S19/19

This Week

M19/19

Last Sale

S18/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1978

1967

1992

-14

2495

-517

18

1875

1858

1928

-53

2318

-443

19

1776

1788

1848

-72

2109

-333

20

1725

1728

1800

-75

2050

-325

21 1713n 1726 1782 (M) -56 (M) 2043 -330
26 1204n 1205 1233n -29 1143n +61

28

919n

910

959n

-40

745n

+174

30

693n

728n

733n

-40

636n

+57

MC

1055n

1064n

1086n

-31

1020

+35

THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES!

The market kept going on its rollercoaster ride this sale as predictions of a cheaper market after the opening day last week rang true as the quick price ascent was never going to be maintained. The previous 3 sales before last week’s big rise had seen the market average a 29 cent shift either way which, to all participants in the trade (most importantly processors), was quite acceptable and business was done without too much angst for grower or processor. Last sale’s rapid rise and the FRX upward shift put paid to this week’s market from the opening lot as the cheaper market in Fremantle last Thursday was a precursor.

The saving grace for sub 18.5 micron was based purely on the superior style types on offer for this week`s designated superfine sale with only the very odd lot attracting solid premiums with most falling by up to 50 cents. 19 micron and broader took the brunt of the losses, most microns giving back 70 to 80 cents more than last week’s gains. Skirtings weren’t as adversely affected as low VM types lost 10/15 while poorer, burrier lots fell by 20/30 cents. After last week’s massive lifts cardings losses were minimal, all types in this sector retracting by 10 to 20 cents bar carbo LKS, back by 30\50 cents. Crossbreds also came under demand pressure to contract by 30 to 60 cents - not quite all of last sale’s gains.

So the rollercoaster continues. The market cannot seem to crack the 1600 cent barrier – has reached 1594 cents last sale and back to 1555 this sale, a loss of 39 cents. The AWEX EMI has been stuck in the 1500 cent range for some time now and buyers are unable to let it go to 1600 and beyond. Is this level comfortable for processors? At the moment it does look as though1600 cents is the upper limit they can operate at and sell to downstream users where everyone is making money. The erratic rises and falls hurt all pipeline participants as we have seen since August. Up or down the staircase is far better for all to operate in rather than the elevator speed that the market has been on in some weeks since sales resumed in August.

As has been the case for some time Fremantle’s Thursday market dictates what will happen next week and the solid market yesterday (up by 10 cents) gives hope that the market should be solid to sellers’ favour next week if recent history is any sort of guide. Just a reminder that all who are eligible to vote in the AWI elections must send their postal voting papers by next Friday to arrive by the cutoff date. If voting via email votes must be submitted by Wednesday 20th November. Directors urge everyone to vote.

Southern Aurora Fwd Prices              

Micron

Date

Low

21

November 19

170

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

4304

2

Endeavour Wool

2462

3

Tianyu Wool

2412

4

Aust. Merino

2231

5

Fox & Lillie

2216

6

PJ Morris

1729

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1555 cents ê 39 cents compared with 01/11/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1583 cents ê 43 cents compared with 01/11/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6865 ê 0.0063  compared with 01/11/2019

1 November 2019

Friday, November 01, 2019

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 1st November, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S18/19

This Week

M18/19

Last Sale

S17/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1992

1971

1922

+70

2555

-563

18

1928

1912

1865

+63

2377

-449

19

1848

1844

1789

+59

2238

-390

20

1800

1784

1748

+52

2153

-353

21 - 1782 1743n (M) +39 (M) 2126 (M) -344 (M)
26 1233n 1238 1160n +73 1189n +44

28

959n

959

889n

+70

778

+181

30

733n

755

675n

+58

661n

+72

MC

1086n

1076n

987n

+99

1045

+41


NUMBERS LOOK GOOD BUT VOLATILITY TO CONTINUE!!

The promise of a dearer market late last week was spot on as buyers chased wool from the opening lot. Sydney’s market had to play catch-up after its 1 day sale last week but all centres rose more than expected as all fleece microns gained 50 to 75 cents on the opening day then leveled out on the final day. Skirtings had an excellent sale as broader types jumped 40/50 cents while < 18 micron climbed by 70 to 90 cents. XBs also benefitted from the increase in demand up by 60 to 80 cents while the MCI added 100 cents as all types in this sector skyrocketed by 80 to 110 cents.

While any rise in any commodity is welcome, price volatility is always a concern as the past 12 weeks has demonstrated. This sale’s rise was widely tipped but after the opening day’s rises most talk was “gains went too high too fast” and  the shift in the FRX to well above 69 cents was too much as Fremantle’s market pulled back by 20 cents on Thursday - a certain sign of things to come here next week. The sudden upward shift in the A$ came after the first phase of a trade pact with China and the US could be signed ahead of schedule and the US Federal Bank dropped interest rates to 1.5% which resulted in the US stock market setting a new record high. The widely volatile market has auctions highly reactionary to immediate demand (both positive and negative) as buyers don’t want a heavily exposed open position and execute purchasing promptly without price limitations. The +/- 20 cent movements over the previous month has had both sides of the trade (buyers & sellers) confident in what they were doing but the big shift in prices makes trading difficult.

The end of the month saw the release of testing figures from AWTA. October saw a 4.2% fall compared to last October and the progressive total from July to now is 11% less than the same period last year. The volume of wool offered for the current season is 16% (89,400) less than last season - these figures certainly not to improve any time soon. AWI AGM will be held in 3 weeks and voting is under way for the 3 vacant positions on the board from a field of 8 candidates. All shareholders eligible to vote should have received their voting papers by now (electronically or by mail) and are urged to vote from now. If you cannot attend the AGM you will need to appoint a proxy for the meeting. Don Macdonald will be happy to again carry your proxy in what will be a very important election of 3 new board members. As we mentioned earlier we could see a cheaper market next week.

            Southern Aurora Fwd Prices

Micron

Date

Low

21

November '19

1760

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

5737

2

Fox & Lillie

4214

3

Endeavour Wool

3160

4

PJ Morris

2489

5

Aust. Merino

2245

6

Tianyu Wool

1844

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1594 cents é 49 cents compared with 25/10/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1626 cents é 66 cents compared with 25/10/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6928 é 0.0080 compared with 25/10/2019

25 October 2019

Friday, October 25, 2019

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 25th October, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S17/19

This Week

M17/19

Last Sale

S16/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1922

1924

1898

+24

2582

-660

18

1865

1873

1850

+15

2397

-532

19

1789

1797

1763

+26

2258

-469

20

1748

1748

1722

+26

2175

-427

21 1743n 1743 1712n +31 2153 -410
26 1160n 1188n 1160n 0 - -

28

889n

924

899n

-10

795

+94

30

675n

705

685 (M)

+20 (M)

671n

+4

MC

987n

1035

987n

0

1143

-156

MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF MEASURED RECOVERY

The market’s current yo-yo movements kept going this week with an upward trend as last sale’s falls were recovered. The positive tone from last Thursday flowed through for 2 days of solid rises for the AWEX EMI for a gain of 28 cents to 1545 and an identical rise in US$ terms to 1058. The AUD/US$ has been trading in the mid to high 68 cent bracket for 2 weeks after trading in the 67 cent range for a month before that but these fluctuations seem not to be influencing the market with everything else going on and are having very little effect on price direction. Gains for fleece types were pretty even - 15 to 35 cents for all microns. Skirtings added 10/20 cents while cardings remained firm and XBs added 10 cents for < 27 and fell 10 cents for 28 and coarser.

Consensus amongst buyers is that the change in sentiment along the pipeline that these price levels are more and more acceptable as the past 3 weeks of sales have shown and hopefully the erratic price movements of August/September are just a memory. Global economies look to be swinging to more positive outcomes with early autumn sales hopefully showing that Northern Hemisphere consumers are ramping up their spending. If Britain and the EU can resolve their differences, the UK can avoid a general election, resolve the Brexit issues quickly and the China/US trade war dies down global economies could dodge the bullet (Recession) everyone fears. A significant factor in the market’s dearer trend was the largest Chinese top-makers ramping up their buying after a quiet month or so. This could be an indication that the backlog of tops to spinning stage wools is clearing where cash flow has been tight due to delays in the uptake of contracts.

Ram sales are finished in this part of the state with the focus now down south. The Henderson family from Grogansworth stud at Yass cleared 87% for a top price of $8,000 to average $2205; Egelabra at Warren had a 100% clearance (146) to average $2,700 with a top price of $18,000; Glenwood at Wellington gained a top price of $5,800 to average $2,215 for an 89% clearance; and Hazeldean held their Hay sale to sell all but 2 of the 110 rams offered with a $2,600 average and a top price of $6,500. All the showfloor talk is of a solid to dearer market despite the largest selection since early August.

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

5069

2

PJ Morris

3204

3

Fox & Lillie

1999

4

Aust. Merino

1980

5

United Wool

1964

6

Endeavour Wool

1767

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1545 cents é 28 cents compared with 18/10/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1560 cents é 15 cents compared with 18/10/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6848 é 0.0061  compared with 18/10/2019

18 October 2019

Friday, October 18, 2019

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 18th October, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S16/19

This Week

M16/19

Last Sale

S15/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1898

1884

1902

-4

2743

-845

18

1850

1839

1867

-17

2530

-680

19

1763

1770

1788

-25

2330

-567

20

1722

1708

1762

-40

2262

-540

21 1712n 1706 1753 -41 2223 -511
26 1160n 1156n 1170n -10 1301n -141

28

899n

909

940n

-41

846 (M)

+63 (M)

30

-

685

719 (M)

-34 (M)

758 (M)

-73 (M)

MC

987n

1004

991n

-4

1299

-312

MARKET HOPEFULLY HAS FOUND THE LEVEL!

The volatile nature of the market is still well and truly in play as price levels of last sale couldn’t be maintained this week but the degree of fluctuations not as bad (or good) as some over the past 6 weeks. The market opened on a softer note as the 3 centres fell but Fremantle did stage a late recovery on Wednesday. This flowed through to the eastern seaboard on Thursday as minor gains were recorded. By the end of the sale the AWEX EMI fell 26 cents to 1517, < 17.5 were in buyers’ favour while 18s and broader lost 20/40 cents. Skirtings followed a similar pattern to their fleece counterparts to finish the sale 20 cheaper. Cardings were the least affected sector as LKS/STN lost 10 to 20 cents while XBs retreated by 10 to 40 cents.

Trading looks to have returned to somewhat of a normal pattern as the EMI has settled just above 1500 cents - hopefully a bottom level of the market as writing business seems to be easier than a month ago but price movements are still largely driven by supply both for volume and wool types. The acceptance of these prices is widespread as most mills are committed to strategising loss-recovery plans from the hectic financial results caused by the dramatic downturn in price with sentiment at the other end of the wool textile chain still subdued.

Could the global economy be showing signs of recovery?? Now that Brexit is locked in to go ahead without any more hiccups and the US-China trade war not as bullish as the rhetoric may have sounded world economies might have dodged a bullet. Retail sales in China rose by 0.7% in August compared to 12 months ago and their trade surplus increased to US$40 billion in September, up by US$9 billion from September, 2018, putting the yearly trade surplus up to US$300 billion, $80 billion higher than the same period last year. Chinese exports did however drop by 3% but were offset by an import reduction of 8%. Their growth in retail sales is good news for woolgrowers as they buy 75% of our wool of which 45% is sold as woolen products in China, putting them at no1 for the largest consumer of wool in the world.

Next week has 33,000 bales on offer with only enough wool in Sydney for a 1 day sale as some growers hold onto their wool waiting for a dearer market and those who have passed-in wool wait for the market to recover up to that level or better. Going on Thursday’s dearer trend we hope the market can keep moving upwards.

Southern Aurora Fwd Prices         

Micron

Date

Low

21

November 19

1670

Free knitted woollen jumpers for poddy lambs. Call into our office in Dubbo or Macdonald Rural at Brewarrina and take as many as you need. Many colours and styles to choose from!

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

4383

2

Endeavour Wool

3240

3

Aust. Merino

2911

4

PJ Morris

2759

5

Fox & Lillie

2323

6

Seatech Ind.

1537

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1517 cents ê 26 cents compared with 11/10/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1545 cents ê 22 cents compared with 11/10/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6787 é 0.0039  compared with 1110/2019

11th Oct 2019

Friday, October 11, 2019

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 10th October, 2019

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S15/19

This Week

M15/19

Last Sale

S14/19

Sydney Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1902

1901

1872

+30

2869

-967

18

1867

1859

1840

+28

2583

-716

19

1788

1788

1739

+49

2346

-558

20

1762

1739

1699

+63

2225

-463

21

1753

1731

1684

+69

2186

-433

26

1170n

1211n

1150n

+20

1351n

-181

28

940n

963

908n

+32

904n

+36

30

-

719n

-

-

701n

-

MC

991n

1021n

1005

-14

1385

-394

MARKET RECOVERS BUT FOR HOW LONG??

The wool market continued on its volatile and erratic path this sale, but growers benefitted from renewed competition as the AWEX EMI added 32 cents to sit at 1543. As has been the case for some time now, the big swings in price (both ways) have thought to be over-done, rising by too much and falling far quicker and further than most thought. This, again was the case last week as the EMI collapsed by 98 cents and to everybody’s relief clawed back 1/3rd of those losses this sale, the level the market finished at was enough to extract fresh business from our major customers. Fleece microns <18.5 rose by 25/30 cents while 19s and broader gained 50 to 70 cents. Skirting’s added 20 to 40 cents for all types while XB’s were quoted 20 to 30 cents higher. The only sector to fall was cardings, losses ranging from 20 to 40 cents.

Since wool sales resumed in early August, the EMI has moved a total of 763 cents up and down, an average of 76 cents over those 10 weeks or 49% of the EMI (1543). Even the veteran’s of the trade think these large price fluctuations are unprecedented and make trading a very difficult proposition that could continue for some time. Uneasy global economic conditions  that could result in some countries slipping into recession, the ongoing trade tensions and Brexit are still at the forefront of most Western governments which is leading to economic slowdown as consumer confidence weakens and  leads to lower demand from wool processing destinations despite shrinking volumes of wool from Australia. The supply and demand balance is in question as reports of building up of early stage processing stocks in China are countered by the ever eroding supply of wool from NSW & QLD. In the short term demand could swing from good to bad as processors try to work out what price level is fair value through the pipeline and at the retail level.

A few more ram sales to report on; Cassilis Park had a 100% clearance for a top of $3,800 (2) to average $1,530,  Bundilla at Young sold all but 2 of their 239 rams for a top of $10,000 to average $3,270 and Blyth at Adelong sold 77% to achieve a top of $6,500 to average $1,635. We have Canola hay for sale ex Lockhart @ $260/tonne (plus GST) if anyone is interested, contact Ros Press at Macdonald Rural on 0427 704 457.                                                            

                                    Southern Aurora Fwd Prices as at 10th October, 2019

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

6-11-19

1750

1750

 

Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

4011

2

Fox & Lillie

3482

3

Endeavour Wool

2635

4

PJ Morris

2449

5

Australian Merino

2177

6

United Wool

1410

 

 

 

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1543cents é32 cents compared with 10/10/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1567cents é 29 cents compared with 10/10/2019

 

 

 

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6748 é 0.0030 compared with 10/10/2019

4 October 2019

Friday, October 04, 2019

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 4th October, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S14/19

This Week

M14/19

Last Sale

S13/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1872

1898n

2003

-131

2869

-997

18

1840

1852n

1965

-125

2583

-743

19

1739

1727n

1871

-132

2346

-607

20

1699

1689n

1843

-144

2225

-526

21 1684n 1687n 1828n -144 2186 -502
26 1150n 1188n 1240n -90 1351n -201

28

908n

936

988n

-80

904n

+4

30

-

738n

814n (M)

-76 (M)

729 (M)

+9 (M)

MC

1005

1040

993n

+12

1385

-380

DEMAND IS KING BUT VOLATILITY RULES!!

The market hit a brick wall this sale as demand almost completely dried up. The cheaper market in Fremantle last Thursday was the absolute indicator of things to come this sale as the volatility in the market continued as last series’ gains were completely wiped out when the AWEX EMI fell by 98 cents to 1511. All FLC indicators recorded triple figure losses, 120 to 145 cents. Most skirtings dropped by 80 to 110 cents bar the better style low VM types which gave up 60/80 cents. Crossbreds also suffered heavy losses - 80 to 100 cents while cardings were the only shining light to be firm to sellers’ favour. We were fortunate enough to open the sale on Wednesday and escaped most of the carnage with some NM lots 25 to 100 cents better than their indicators.

This degree of volatility has not been seen in the market according to wool buyers with 40+ years of experience. Over the past 9 weeks, since sales resumed, the EMI has lost 389 cents, regained 244 and this sale fell 98 cents. Volatility is running above 40% for 19 & 21 micron and in the last 10 years the EMI has moved either direction by more than 50 cents in a single day 19 times, with 9 since January and 7 in the past 9 sales. On two occasions has the EMI had a daily shift more than 100 cents, both in the last 6 weeks.

The shrinking volume is again front and centre with the latest release of testing figures from AWTA. September is back by 13.7% compared to last year and for the first quarter of the season the decline is 14% (55,000 bales) from last season. The total bales offered is worse, 81,500 (19.6%) less than last year so far - alarming figures.

More  Ram sales results: Allendale at Wellington cleared 78% with a top price of $3,500 to average $1320, other results from  Wellington: Mumblebone sold all but 2 rams from 200 offered to average $2905 to top out at $12,000 (2); and Boxleigh Park topped at $3,200 for a $1,490 average; Langdene at Dunedoo sold 87% to average $3,030 with a top price of $9,000; while Dunbogan 85% sold with a top of $2,600 to average $1265; at Peak Hill Westray/Genanegie cleared all 164 on offer to average $2,565 topping out at $16,000; and Cora Lynn averaged $1,645  with a top of $3,800 to clear 95%.


         Southern Aurora Fwd Prices as at 4th October, 2019       

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

16-Oct-19

1680

1680

Free knitted woollen jumpers for poddy lambs. Call into our office in Dubbo or Macdonald Rural at Brewarrina and take as many as you need. Many colours and styles to choose from!

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

3416

2

PJ Morris

2082

3

Fox & Lillie

2266

4

Aust. Merino

2082

5

Endeavour Wool

1862

6

Michell Wool

1233

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1511 cents ê 98 cents compared with 04/10/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1538 cents ê 97 cents compared with 04/10/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6718 ê 0.0039 compared with 04/10/2019

27 September 2019

Friday, September 27, 2019

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 27th September, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S13/19

This Week

M13/19

Last Sale

S12/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2003

1998

1967

+36

2948

-945

18

1965

1955

1902

+63

2615

-650

19

1871

1869

1775

+96

2358

-487

20

1843

1835

1743

+100

2220

-377

21 1828n  1829 1735 (M) -94 (M) 2173 (M) -345 (M)
26 1240n 1233n 1195n +45 1401n -161

28

988n

995

953n

+35

910 (M)

+85 (M)

30

-

814n

791n (M)

+23 (M)

730 (M)

+84 (M)

MC

993n

1046n

934n

+59

1419

-426

IS THIS ANOTHER PEAK??

The Nanjing Wool Conference that was held last weekend proved to be a success as plenty of business was written as all mills sold plenty of quantity to fill large fake fur orders. The market’s stunning rise two sales ago kept going this week as an opening day surge saw 19 micron and broader add 90/100 cents and finer types 35 to 60 cents with some superior types 50 to 200 cents higher. Skirtings also recorded rises beyond 100 cents as the low VM < 2.5% lifted by 100/130 cents while all others were 70 to 110 better. XBs posted gains of 30/50 cents while cardings enjoyed the renewed buyer sentiment as the 3 centres averaged a 64 cent jump as all types rose by 40 to 80 cents. The AWEX EMI rose by 67 cents to 1609, a 244 cent (63%) recovery over the past 3 weeks from the 389 cent fall in August.

Ram sales continue in earnest with good averages and clearance rates. Some more results include: Macquarie Dohne cleared 100% with a top of $6,000 to average $1,880; Gullendah at Baldry also had a top of $6,000 to average $1,970 and cleared 96%; Roseville Park also cleared 100% to average $3185 topping at $12,000; Towalba at Peak Hill sold 95% to average $1,775 with 2 rams selling for $5,000; Coddington Uardry also achieved a top of $5,000 to average $1,980 and clear 94%; Trynow at Goolma averaged $1,330 for a top price of $4,600; Calga Dohnes from Coonamble sold 91% to average $1,455 with a top of $3,600; Bella Lana at Wellington had a top of $4,550 to clear 90% and average $1,950. In the Riverina Poll Boonooke and Wanganella had a top price of $26,000 to average $3,675 and sold all but 1 of the 190 rams offered and Pooginook topped out at $6,500 to average $2,365 for all 237 rams sold.

AWI board elections will be held in November and all shareholders were sent documentation showing their voting entitlements at the AGM. There have been some discrepancies where the numbers of entitlements were wrong. If you have any queries we can email you a report showing the amount of wool tax for the past 3 years.

Most exporters thought this run on the market could last for a few sales but Fremantle’s fall in the market late yesterday (30 to 70 cents) could see the market give up some of this week’s gains.

       Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 27th September, 2019     

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

23-Oct-19

1750

1750

Free knitted woollen jumpers for poddy lambs. Call into our office in Dubbo or Macdonald Rural at Brewarrina and take as many as you need. Many colours and styles to choose from!

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

4686

2

Fox & Lillie

3315

3

Endeavour Wool

2645

4

PJ Morris

2141

5

Aust. Merino

2125

6

United wool

1049

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1609 cents é 67 cents compared with 20/09/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1635 cents é 65 cents compared with 20/09/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6757 ê 0.0033 compared with 20/09/2019

20 September 2019

Friday, September 20, 2019

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 20th September, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S12/19

This Week

M12/19

Last Sale

S11/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1967

1973

1930

+37

2988

-1021

18

1902

1915

1853

+49

2688

-786

19

1775

1809

1755

+20

2429

-654

20

1743

1740

1682

+53

2294

-551

21 1735 1769n -34 (M) 2229 (M) -494 (M)
26 1195n 1191n 1165n +30 1433n -238

28

953n

953

953n

0

944

+9

30

-

791n

813n

-27 (M)

756n (M)

+35

MC

934n

988n

906n

+28

1531

-597

WELL DONE SHARPY – A GREAT ACHIEVEMENT!!

A great milestone was achieved this week as Ian Sharp clocked up 50 years in the wool trade. It was on the 18th September, 1969, that he commenced with Winchombe-Carson as a junior valuer then went to CPS then onto Elders in 1973 till 2011 when he joined Macwool. It is an achievement to be able to work for half a century but to work in the one industry for your whole career and witness how the wool industry has evolved over that time and the life-long friendships that he has forged is testament to the respect and high regard in which he is held in the wool industry. Well done and here’s to many more years in the trade.

On to the market: Things panned out as most people had hoped. After last week’s massive hikes that left Melbourne and Fremantle well ahead of Sydney as they forged higher on the final day of sales (as we only sold on the first day), to have the 3 centres’ prices aligned more closely this week was a good result. With our rise and Melbourne’s fall the EMI added 7 cents to 1542 and most microns rose here by 35 to 60 cents. In the south, < 18 lifted by 10 to 40 while > 18.5 lost 25 to 50 cents. Skirtings kept improving as all types jumped by 50 to 70 cents with cardings to the good by 30 to 40 cents. Crossbreds had a mixed sale as opening day losses were nearly cancelled out by a final day’s rally to have 28s and finer up to 30 dearer and broader types 20/30 cheaper.

We are in the peak season for ram sales with studs holding their sales through to the end of October. A few to report on from the past week include: Haddon Rig at Warren clearing 94% of their draft with a top of $6,500 to average $2410; Gullengamble at Yeoval sold 97% with 2 rams selling for $5,500 with an average of $2245; the newly formed Towonga stud at Peak Hill averaged $1910 with a top price of $4,500 to clear 84% at their opening sale; Parkdale at Dubbo had a top price of $3,500 to average $1,515; Weealla at Gilgandra sold all rams on offer to a top of$3,250 (2) to average $1,350; and Merryville at Boorowa sold 75% with 3 rams topping at $5,000 to average $2,125. Good results given the ongoing drought and the number of ewes to join far less than last year.

The Nanjing Wool Conference is currently being held in Shandong, China. The success or failure of this gathering will determine the immediate price direction of the market but one buyer reported selling 90% of this week’s purchases yesterday so next sale should be rock solid.

          Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 20th September, 2019       

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

18-Dec-19

1620

1620

21

27-May-20

1580

1580

Free knitted woollen jumpers for poddy lambs. Call into our office in Dubbo or Macdonald Rural at Brewarrina and take as many as you need. Many colours and styles to choose from!

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

3952

2

Fox & Lillie

3369

3

Endeavour Wool

2659

4

Aust. Merino

2623

5

PJ Morris

2223

6

Lempriere

2002

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1542 cents é 7 cents compared with 13/09/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1570 cents é 36 cents compared with 13/09/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6790 ê 0.0088 compared with 13/09/2019

13 September 2019

Friday, September 13, 2019

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 13th September, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S11/19

This Week

M11/19

Last Sale

S10/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1930

1969

1842

+88

3008

-1078

18

1853

1874

1783

+70

2708

-855

19

1755

1833

1578

+177

2439

-684

20

1682

1785

1497

+185

2303

-621

21 1645n 1769 1487n +158 2274 -629
26 1165n - 1100n +65 1493n -328

28

953n

961

853n

+100

975

-22

30

813n

818n

703 (M)

+115 (M)

738n

+75

MC

906n

1007n

814n

+92

1563

-657

HISTORIC RISES BUT WHERE TO FROM HERE??

What an incredible week for the market as the recovery was nothing short of spectacular. After last sale’s stable market and signs of a level being found last Thursday, futures trading was pointing to a 30/40 cent lift and by Tuesday night predictions were in the 80 to 100 cent range. Both were wrong! The sale in Sydney was condensed to a one day sale due to lack of quantity with gains of 70 to 90 cents for < 18 micron and the broader types 130 to 185 higher. The AWEX EMI added 170 cents to 1535 - the largest weekly gain on record - with the 130 climb on Wednesday the biggest daily rise of all time. Skirtings added 80 to 100, XBs rose 65 to 100 and cardings put on 50 to 100 cents. Despite this steep rise for all sectors, the pass-in rate was 6.2%

After loosing 389 cents (24.5%) since the resumption of sales over the past 5 weeks the market made a stunning comeback to gain 170 cents (12.2%) in one week to wipe out 44% of the losses.  Buyers were frantic to secure quantity as discounts shrank and premiums for better types rose to extreme levels. As one buyer said, “Exporters stopped selling the market down” as the volume of wool on offer compared to the wool actually sold over the past 5 sales had declined by 40/50% due to the high passed-in rates and withdrawn lots. Another factor was the sudden rush of woolen clothing imported to the US from China before last week’s additional 15% import duty came into effect as US retailers tried to beat the 1st September deadline. For June and July the year-on-year % of wool imports rose by 30%. This major increase in exported clothing may have left some manufacturers short on stock in China and with small offerings to pick from, panic looks to have set in. Also adding to the good news was the softening stance between the US and China over tariffs and agreeing to a resolution may not be just a dream but reality sooner rather than later which can only help consumer confidence north of the equator.

Kerin Poll held their ram sale this week with a total clearance of 450 rams to average $2500 topping out at $10,000. At the feature sale in Adelaide 2 rams were bought by syndicates for $100,000 (poll) and $72,500 (horn). These results augur well for the stud selling season despite the on-going drought and less ewes to join and maybe not as many rams needed for upcoming joinings. After the overdone falls in August and this sale’s correction anything is possible in this current volatile market. Who knows what for next week??

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 13 September, 2019       

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

27-Nov-19

1520

1535

21

22-Jan-20

1600

1600

Free knitted woollen jumpers for poddy lambs. Call into our office in Dubbo or Macdonald Rural at Brewarrina and take as many as you need. Many colours and styles to choose from!

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Fox & Lilliel

3267

2

Techwool

1997

3

Modiano

1334

4

Endeavour Wool

1303

5

PJ Morris

1298

6

Aust. Merino

972

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1535 cents é 170 cents compared with 06/09/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1534 cents é 126 cents compared with 06/09/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6878 é 0.0059 compared with 06/09/2019

6 September 2019

Friday, September 06, 2019

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 6th September, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S10/19

This Week

M10/19

Last Sale

S09/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1842

1823

1845

-3

2989

-1147

18

1783

1747

1795

-12

2669

-886

19

1578

1582

1593

-15

2443

-865

20

1497

1481

1515

-18

2324

-837

21 1487n 1477 1499n -12 2285 -798
26 1100n - - - 1486n -386

28

853n

849

843n

+10

968

-115

30

-

703

698n (M)

+5 (M)

739 (M)

-36 (M)

MC

814n

821n

806n

+8

1563

-749

IS THIS THE BOTTOM??

This week’s market started off poorly but rebounded in the final session to give a glimmer of hope that the market may have finally bottomed out. By week’s end the AWEX EMI lost just 10 cents to 1365 with a slight lift in US$ terms (6 cents) to 931. All MPGs fell ranging from 5 to 20 cents with the very odd best style Italian lot fetching 30 to 60 cents higher than their indicators. The renewed buyer interest flowed through to Room 2 as skirtings lifted by 30/50 cents, cardings added 30 to 60 cents and XBs looked up to 10 cents dearer.

Finally the market came off the descending elevator to find the stairs. After a horror August which saw the market shed 379 cents (23.8%), the largest monthly % decline in 28 years, the market recorded its first daily rise since Sale 2 on Thursday to hopefully stop the rot. The EMI is a massive 723 cents (34.6%) lower than a year ago, meaning just 10% was lost in the period from August 2018 till end of July. The “super-cycle” that most analysts talk about is certainly over. This is the 5th such cycle since the market’s big jump in 1988. Reasons for the downturns in the market after theses super-cycles are varied and all not related to the wool market, rather global external factors. If we look at the 4 downturns this century: 2003 to 2005 with the SARS outbreak in China the EMI fell 608 cents (49%) to a low of 632; the GFC period of 2008/09 saw a 328 cent drop to 721 (31%); from 2011 to 2012 a 35% (501 cents) fall to 933 was due to the massive cotton stockpile that China had built up after the GFC; and, of course, this current downturn which hopefully is nearing its end.

Now we are faced with new global challenges that will take time (up to 2 years according to some economic experts) to sort out from Brexit to the US/China trade wars which took a new twist this week. As of Monday the US lifted tariffs by 10% on a vast range of imports from China (worth $300B) from 20% to 30% but for woolen clothing the tariff was raised by 15%. Have prices “overshot” their high and low points?? Many believe so and the fundamentals of supply and demand get lost in the over-correction when the market goes in either direction. Many traders believe the market reached an unsustainable height last year and this current correction has gone too far. Hopefully the market can maintain the level it finished at on Thursday.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 30 August, 2019       

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

16-Oct-19

1500

1500

21

20-Nov-19

1500

1500

Free knitted woollen jumpers for poddy lambs. Call into our office in Dubbo or Macdonald Rural at Brewarrina and take as many as you need. Many colours and styles to choose from!

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

2778

2

Fox & Lillie

2152

3

Endeavour Wool

2118

4

Tianyu Wool

1778

5

G Schneider

1077

6

PJ Morris

1044

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1365 cents ê 10 cents compared with 30/08/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1408 cents é 3 cents compared with 30/08/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6819 é 0.0090 compared with 30/08/2019