Weekly Market Reports


14 December 2018

Friday, December 14, 2018

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 14th December, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S24/18

This Week

M24/18

Last Sale

S23/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2532

2500

2513

+19

2538

-6

18

2402

2371

2379

+23

2300

+102

19

2247

2248

2218

+29

2086

+161

20

2178

2188

2147

+31

1883

+295

21

2145

2156

2129

+16

1745

+400

22

-

2155n

2140 (M)

+15 (M)

1633 (M)

+522 (M)

26

1205n

1229n

1205

0

1115

+90

28

855n

863

855

0

785

+70

30

-

693

683n (M)

+10 (M)

600 (M)

+93 (M)

MC

1146

1138n

1183

-37

1470

-324

WISHING ALL A VERY MERRY WET, WET CHRISTMAS!!

The final sale of the year delivered good news and an early Christmas present for growers that had wool in as all sectors recorded lifts bar cardings. The AWEX EMI added 13 cents to its value to finish the year at 1862 - a 100 cent (5.8%) increase from 12 months ago and, in US$ terms, almost identical at 1346. All microns regardless of style, VM and other faults were in good demand, all posting 15 to 30 cent rises with the odd lot with outstanding specs or non-mulesed up to 50/100 cents better than their indicators.

Skirtings also went well with a solid opening day to edge higher in the final session by 10 cents. As mentioned earlier cardings were the only sector to finish in negative territory as all types gave up 35 to 50 cents resulting in the 3 centres averaging 44 cent falls with the MCIs ranging from 1146 to 1105 cents - a disappointing end to the year after the previous 3 sales saw increases of 180 cents. Crossbreds put aside the past 3 erratic sales as most microns gained 10 to 15 cents.

The anticipated larger offering didn’t faze buyers as purchasing patterns returned to some form of normality as the biggest trader flexed their muscle and other companies were forced to follow suit. Techwool Trading bought over 6,500 bales, costing over $13m. The biggest indent buyer was also in the market concentrating on merino fleece types only with other local trading houses competing against them but not pushing them to extreme levels that would be out of reach of their client’s ability to pay the desired price. Also not to be out-done was China’s biggest top-maker who was looking to build inventory for the upcoming 3 week recess and Europe’s largest top-maker who dominated the lower spec types and crossbreds and skirtings.

A spectacular year for the market as the highs of June (2073) and August (2089) were offset by the low point of 1776 in early November. This was the cheapest point for cardings (1020) while their peak was 1563 cents in mid September. We wish all our clients a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year with drought breaking rains the best Christmas present we could all wish for. Wool sales resume on 9th January, 2019.

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

6507

2

Tianyu

4005

3

Fox & Lillie

3791

4

Aust. Merino

3505

5

Kathaytex

2457

6

Seatech Ind.

2423


Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1862 cents é 13 cents compared with 7/12/2018


Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1906 cents é 9 cents compared with 7/12/2018


AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7228 é 0.0003 compared with 7/12/2018

 
 

7 December 2018

Friday, December 07, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 7th December, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison


AWEX INDEX

This Week

S23/18

This Week

M23/18

Last Sale

S22/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2513

2445

2487

+26

2477

+36

18

2379

2326

2372

+7

2273

+106

19

2218

2202

2188

+30

2015

+203

20

2147

2156

2141

+6

1794

+353

21

2129

2133

2129

0

1669

+460

22

-

2140n

-

-1 (M)

1564 (M)

+576 (M)

26

1205

1244n

1335n

-130

1064

+141

28

855

850

-

-

772

+83

30

703n

683

-

-

571

+132

MC

1183

1174n

1199

-16

1433

-250

PENULTIMATE SALE DELIVERS ... NOT MUCH!

When looking at the AWEX EMI it’s hard to imagine little change with the 11 cent fall to 1849 cents but there were many twists and turns in the different sectors as XBs contributed to the slight fall. By week’s end the merino fleece sector had made some reasonable gains, up to 30 cents with some finer, lower style types over 2% VM commonly 50/60 cents to the good.

After a slow start merino skirtings came home with a wet sail again with gains similar to the fleece sector, up to 30 cents. Cardings took a breather from their rapid rises of a few weeks ago losing what they gained last series as all types retreated by 30 cents. After a few sales of whirlwind rises buyers put the brakes on any further gains in the XB sector citing the last series’ jumps too much as most microns lost 70 to 130 cents. The “fake fur” order that led to the sudden rises is still in place and will come into play again in January. Another reason for the fall could’ve been the sudden lift in volume of XBs particularly in Melbourne where only 17% of the Room 2 wools were merino PCS and BLS.

A good sale for merino growers as these types look to be building momentum again. The main Chinese indent buyer was again quiet but local traders filled this void to out-bid him on most occasions operating on a strict buy-in level price, not their usual method of purchasing.  Australia’s biggest buyer, Techwool Trading, flexed their muscle to buy 16% of the total sold this sale buying twice the volume of the next buyer on Thursday.

The sharp decline in the FRX from almost 74 cents on Monday to below 72 cents on Thursday - a 2 cent fall - was too late to help the markets on the Eastern seaboard but did benefit the Fremantle market, up by 20 to 45 cents on Thursday. The release of Australia’s poor GDP figures and trade issues between China and the USA saw financial markets tumble and currencies react. Next week sees the final sale of the year with 48,000 bales on offer - the largest sale since early August. Hopefully buyers will need to buy and ship wool to keep machinery running in January.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 7 December 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21 12-Dec-18 2125 2125
21 6-Mar-19 2100 2100

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

5405

2

Aust. Merino

2802

3

Tianyu

2800

4

Fox & Lillie

2691

5

Endeavour Wool

2233

6

PJ Morris

1970


Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1849 cents ê 2 cents compared with 30/11/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1897 cents ê 8 cents compared with 30/11/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7225 ê 0.0090 compared with 30/11/2018

30 November 2018

Friday, November 30, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 30th November, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison


AWEX INDEX

This Week

S22/18

This Week

M22/18

Last Sale

S21/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2487

2426

2472

+15

2459

+28

18

2372

2315

2343

+29

2270

+102

19

2188

2195

2204

-16

1999

+189

20

2141

2152

2172

-31

1773

+368

21

2129

2138

2158

-29

1649

+480

22

-

2141n

2144 (M)

-3 (M)

1561 (M)

+580 (M)

26

1335n

1359

1245n

+90

1035

+300

28

-

946

861n (M)

+85 (M)

734 (M)

+212 (M)

30

-

753

734 (M)

+19 (M)

536 (M)

+217 (M)

MC

1199

1181

1180

+19

1382n

-183

MARKET MARKS TIME

After last series’ big lift the market consolidated with no shift in the AWEX EMI to stay at 1860. The Sydney market managed a 2 cent gain while Melbourne lost 2 cents to come to that unchanged figure - a good result considering the FRX went against the A$ by 1%, this reflected in the rise of the EMI in US $ terms by exactly that amount, 13 cents to 1360. On the surface the market was unchanged but there were some very mixed results across the different categories. The fleece sector saw some subtle movements with the final designated super-fine sale of the year helping the sub 18.5 micron types post gains up to 30 cents and for the “Italian/European” types (spinners and better) premiums were in the order of 200/300 cents with some < 16.5 micron types even with very poor strength readings were 30 to 80 cents higher. Broader microns from 19 couldn’t maintain their big increases of last sale and lost 15 to 30 cents - buyers citing last Thursday’s push of 20/40 cents as too much after absorbing Wednesday’s price rises as plenty of business had been done that night after that day’s good gains.
Skirtings also benefitted from the superior selection on offer as these finer, low VM types lifted by 10 to 20 cents with some up to 50 cents to the good. Cardings also were quoted dearer helped along by the better offering as fine LKS < 17.5 micron looked 20 to 50 cents dearer with all other types of cardings solid. The Crossbred sector was the stand–out for the week as 26 to 28 micron shot up 80 to 90 cents. This push that started last sale has come about from some large “fake fur” orders being placed in China that uses 25.5 to 27.5 micron wools but these rises may be short lived as requirements may be filled pre-Christmas or early in the New Year.

The absence of the biggest Chinese indent trader did see prices falter early but other buyers soon filled the void to secure volume as well as local traders and one of China’s larger top-makers. A major talking point was quota issues in China with their allocation of 300 million greasy kgs of all wool allowed to be imported rumoured to be fulfilled. We have retained our share of that quota with end of September figures showing a 1% decrease of volume imported year on year. Fresh quotas will be issued in a month and, given the 3 week recess is almost upon us, little impact is expected if quotas have, in fact, closed off for the calendar year. After last week’s rise 40,000 bales are on offer next week and the final sale before Christmas could see close to 50,000 bales for sale.

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

4543

2

Fox & Lillie

3226

3

Tianyu

2820

4

Endeavour wool

2567

5

Aust. Merino

2367

6

Lempriere

1927

7

Kathaytex Aust.

1678

8

Michell Aust.

1656

9

PJ Morris

929

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1860 cents é 2 cents compared with 23/11/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1905 cents é 7 cents compared with 23/11/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7315 é 0.0063 compared with 23/11/2018

23 November 2018

Friday, November 23, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 23rd November, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S21/18

This Week

M21/18

Last Sale

S20/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2472

2448n

2445

+27

2460

+12

18

2343

2319

2278

+65

2277

+66

19

2204

2210

2104

+100

1985

+217

20

2172

2164

2057

+115

1758

+414

21

2158

2159

2048

+110

1636

+522

22

-

2144n

-

+59 (M)

1548n (M)

+596 (M)

26

1245n

-

1140n

+105

1055

+190

28

845n

861

760

+85

731

+114

30

-

734

663n

+50 (M)

539 (M)

+195 (M)

MC

1180

1183n

1100

+69

1381n

-201

AT LONG LAST, THE MARKET LIFTS

Finally, after weeks of showfloor chatter of a recovery in the market, it did happen!! Hopes were high after the last series’ modest rises that the market could get some serious traction and recoup the recent losses. Whether it be the lower quantities on offer, the fall in the FRX from the Tuesday night high of 73.35 cents to 72.3 before sales commenced, the latest release of wool production forecasting figures or just that the market had fallen enough and the Chinese deemed it was time to step back in and start to buy again is anyone’s guess.

Whatever the reason it was a dearer market in all sectors. The AWEX EMI clawed back 77 cents to 1858 led by the medium wool types (19 to 22s) up by 100 to 120 cents. Finer microns were dearer but not to the extent of their broader cousins, still hindered by oversupply and poor quality, 18/18.5 jumped by 60 to 70 cents while < 18 could only find 15 to 30 cent gains as discounts for any fault shrunk as 97.6% of fleece lots were sold in Sydney.

The positive tone also extended to Room 2 as skirtings, regardless of VM, style or micron added 40 to 80 cents to their values. It was another good sale for cardings as they jumped an identical amount to last series, 80 cents to 1180 as all types posted 50 to 80 cent rises. Crossbreds weren’t to be outdone either as < 28s climbed by 85 to 110 cents while broader than 30 microns looked up to 50 cents to the good.

As mentioned above whatever it takes for the market to rise is welcome but a major factor could have been the latest release of figures by the Wool Production Forecasting Committee that met last week, a month ahead of schedule due to global concern of supply in Australia. The new forecast came in at 305mkg for the current season, down from the 322mkg that was predicted at their August meeting and back by 11% on the 341mkg from last season. These figures are backed up by the AWTA stats that are 9.7% behind last year’s totals to the end of October and offerings are 17% (136,800 bales) lower than to the same sale last year. NSW production is predicted to fall by 20% this season to 100mkg, the lowest since 1902 with some brokers talking of a 25% reduction of wool through their stores by July next year. Alarming stats indeed! Talk of the market keeping this momentum is all the rage with only 3 sales before Christmas buyers need to deliver wool to their mills promptly to process in the new year with the 3 week recess looming.


Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 23 November 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

20-Feb-19

2100

2100

 21 22-May-19 2050 2050

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Tianyu

3719

2

Techwool

3469

3

Endeavour Wool

2956

4

Fox & Lillie

2686

5

PJ Morris

1916

6

Michell Aust.

1658

7

Seatech Ind.

1148

8

Aust. Merino

1082

9

Modiano

846

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1858 cents é 77 cents compared with 16/11/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1898 cents é 79 cents compared with 16/11/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7252 ê 0.0021 compared with 16/11/2018

16 November 2018

Friday, November 16, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 16th November, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S20/18

This Week

M20/18

Last Sale

S19/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2445

2403

2495

-50

2494

-49

18

2278

2248

2318

-40

2303

-25

19

2104

2100

2109

-5

2009

+95

20

2057

2071

2050

+7

1783

+274

21

2048

2058

2043

+5

1647

+401

22

-

2085n

-

-15 (M)

1548n (M)

+537 (M)

26

1140n

1126

1143n

-3

1075

+65

28

760

765

745n

+15

768

-8

30

663n

684

636n

+27

584

+79

MC

1100

1114n

1020

+80

1382n

-282

WOOLGROWERS VOTE FOR 1.5%

The recent Woolpoll voting results have finally been released after the closest vote on record. Like most political elections, preferences had to come into play to determine a winner as first-hand results were too close to call between the 2 favoured options, 1.5% and 2%. After the final tally of preferences the 1.5% levy won by 52.5% over 47.5% for the current rate of 2% to be retained. Despite the call for the levy to be held at 2% from AWI, various industry groups lobbied for the lower option despite the forecasted less revenue due to less wool being sold and with less finances coming in putting some projects at risk. The new levy will commence from July 2019.      

For just the 4th time in 13 weeks - since the big rise in mid August - the AWEX EMI took a turn for the better, with a modest 5 cent gain to 1781. Talk of a recovery or the market bottoming out has been in the wings for 2-3 sales now but only came to fruition this sale due mainly to a buoyant XB and carding market. The large volume of dusty, fine and tender types < 19 micron saw these wools lose 35 to 55 cents whereas the odd lot with “good specs” gained 40 to 60 cents. Broader microns managed to hold their ground to finish in sellers’ favour. A much higher acceptance of these current prices by growers saw just 6% of the Sydney fleece catalogue passed-in.

The big movers in the market were in Room 2. Skirtings had an up and down sale as the opening day’s losses of 20 to 30 cents were regained in the closing session to see this sector finish unchanged to sellers’ favour. The big mover was the carding sector. After getting hammered since the record peak of 1563 cents in mid September to last sale’s low of 1020 (a 543 cent collapse – 35%) the 3 centres averaged a 90 cent gain as all types in this sector added 50 to 150 cents to their previous values. Crossbreds were also buoyed by the renewed buyer competition increasing by up to 30 cents.

Could this finally be the bottom of this price cycle? It may well be if all other sectors follow the lead of cardings as a Chinese delegation was here this week and were keen to purchase carding types having been out of the market for several weeks. Also of note was the lift in prices of inferior fleece types by 40 cents late in the final session. The market in Euro terms gained 1.1% even with the ascendency in this currency by 3.5% over the past 3 weeks indicating increased support for the better European types despite China’s absence from the market. Many “good judges” are predicting a dearer market through to Christmas - hope their on the money!!

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 16 November 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

5-Dec-18

1990

1990

 
21

22-May-19

1910

1910

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

3842

2

Tianyu Wool

3232

3

Endeavour Wool

2641

4

Fox & Lillie

2420

5

Seatech Ind.

2367

6

Aust. Merino

2252

7

PJ Morris

1881

8

Vic. Wool Proc.

1012

9

Kathaytex

825

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1781 cents é 5 cents compared with 9/11/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1819 cents é 10 cents compared with 9/11/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7273 ê 0.0005 compared with 9/11/2018

9 November 2018

Friday, November 09, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 9th November, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S19/18

This Week

M19/18

Last Sale

S18/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2495

2387

2555

-60

2488

+7

18

2318

2207

2377

-59

2283

+35

19

2109

2107

2238

-129

2005

+104

20

2050

2056n

2153

-103

1764

+286

21

2043

2064n

2139

-96

1645

+398

22

-

2100n

-

-69 (M)

1560 (M)

+540 (M)

26

1143n

1119

1189n

-46

1103

+40

28

745n

751

778

-33

815

-70

30

636n

670

661n

-25

616

+20

MC

1020

1045n

1045

-25

1348n

-328

THE END OF AN ERA AT AWI

AWI Chairman, Wal Merriman announced today that he had stood down as Chairman of the company after 13 years in the top job. His decision came just prior to the AGM in two weeks time to allow the incoming Chair, Colette Garnsey, time to prepare for the next busy year. Wal’s contribution has been enormous and one hopes his tenure is remembered as one who steered and guided the company back into marketing and putting wool back on the stage in the world fashion industry. He leaves his position with the company in a strong financial position with a list of many significant achievements for the wool grower shareholders.

It seems nothing at the moment can influence the buyers into a positive change of sentiment as the market lurched further into negative territory. Each region recorded similar losses (74 to 82 cents) as the AWEX EMI retreated to the tune of 78 cents to 1776. In US$ terms the fall was not as severe, a 29 cent fall to 1293 this due the FRX ascending against the A$ by 1.5 cents. Even though falls were across the board, fortunes were reversed from the previous few sales as the < 18.5 micron escaped the bigger losses of their broader counterparts (45 to 70 cents) as 19 and coarser collapsed by 95 to 130 cents - a sign that the gap between the fine and broad microns was too close as in the past few sales the <19 micron have been falling dramatically and broader types not so. Only the very best style lots with good length and strength results escaped the carnage giving up 20/40 cents.

Skirtings also came under the pump as losses across all microns, VM, styles and lengths totaled another 50 to 100 cents. Cardings again copped a caning as some buyers were still sitting on the side-lines as all types in this sector were quoted 60 to 100 cents behind the previous series. Crossbreds took reasonable hits as well with a cut-off point around 26 micron. Finer than this the falls ranged from 50 to 100 cents while coarser types were adjusted down by 20/30 cents.

After last series relatively minor falls talk of the falling market reversing its fortunes was widespread. That was until the FRX shifted in favour of the 3 major wool trading destinations as the A$ jumped and buyers let the market freefall again. Talk is still strong that the market is very close to the bottom.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 9 November 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

23-Jan-19

1980

1980

21 8-May-19  1910 1910 

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Endeavour Wool

2548

2

Fox & Lillie

2531

3

Tianyu Wool

2411

4

Techwool

2383

5

Seatech Ind.

2094

6

PJ Morris

1823

7

Aust. Merino

1507

8

Michell Aust.

714

9

G Schneider

668

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1776 cents ê 78 cents compared with 2/11/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1809 cents ê 82 cents compared with 2/11/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7278 é 0.0149 compared with 2/11/2018

2 November 2018

Friday, November 02, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 2nd November, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S18/18

This Week

M18/18

Last Sale

S17/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2555

2532n

2582

-27

2454

+101

18

2377

2343

2397

-20

2246

+131

19

2238

2221

2258

-20

1968

+270

20

2153

2141

2175

-22

1713

+440

21

2139

2126

2153

-14

1608

+531

22

-

2169n

-

+4 (M)

1503 (M)

+666 (M)

26

1189n

1210

-

-

1048

+141

28

778

778

795

-17

728

+50

30

661n

700

671n

-10

536

+125

MC

1045

1116n

1143

-98

1289n

-244

NEXT WEEK ... THE RECOVERY??

Hope that the change of fortunes in Fremantle last Thursday could be a trigger for a market recovery were short lived as the falling market accelerated as the sale progressed. All 3 centres recorded double digit losses (20/30 cents) as the AWEX EMI peeled off by another 20 cents (1%) to 1854. Losses were consistent across all microns, 15 to 30 cents as again buyers struggled to cope with the large volume of drought-affected, fine, low yielding and tender types coming onto the market as growers dug their toes in to pass-in 16% of the national fleece catalogue.

The skirting sector was the best performer of any as losses were kept to the barest minimum as all types and descriptions were quoted as “in buyers favour”. Cardings again bore the brunt of buyer resistance as heavy losses over both sale days saw the MCI shed 98 cents in Sydney to 1045, a whopping 518 cents from the record peak of 1563 in early September. Growers were caught out by the magnitude of the losses as the clearance rate was only 73%. Crossbreds also looked to escape the big losses of the past few sales as most microns gave up 10 to 20 cents.

Another tough sale as the market fell but did perhaps mask an underlying change of sentiment as the fall in A$ terms can be somewhat attributed to the ascending FRX, up by 0.75%. The 3 other main currencies (US$, Euro and the Chinese Yuan) that are used in wool trading prices were unchanged to buyers’ favour. Demand was stronger from the outset and the only real problem is still the over-supply of sub 18.5 micron types not suitable for European manufacturers but buyer interest is on the up as the price gap between these and 19s to 21s is only 110 to 160 cents compared to 170 to 230 cents at the market’s peak in August making these finer microns good value when compared to their broader cousins.

These past few sales have demonstrated that “demand is still king” above all else. Factors like supply, FRX and quality all play their part in price determination but demand is the no.1 factor that dictates price movements and, if demand isn’t there, prices will fall no matter how much other factors are or are not in play. The “demand” component that goes all the way to the retailer has manufacturers worried that consumers will be able to afford these dearer price levels for the Northern Hemisphere winter collection which is in stores now.

The shrinking quantity is again in the news as the latest AWTA figures released for October showed a fall of 5.9% from  October, 2017, and the progressive total for the season (July to October) is back by 9.7% (102.7mkg) to 118.8mkg compared to last year. This equates to 93,700 bales less offered this season than last, more than 2 selling weeks. Hopefully the market can take a turn for the better next week!!! 

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 2 November 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

28-Nov-18

2130

2130

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

3514

2

Fox & Lillie

3064

3

Endeavour Wool

2472

4

Tianyu Wool

2451

5

Seatech Ind.

2407

6

Kathaytex

1758

7

Modiano

1131

8

Aust. Merino

897

9

G Schneider

652

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1854 cents ê 20 cents compared with 26/10/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1891 cents ê 23 cents compared with 26/10/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7129 é 0.0049 compared with 26/10/2018

26 October 2018

Friday, October 26, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 26th October, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S17/18

This Week

M17/18

Last Sale

S16/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2582

2566

2743

-161

2377

+205

18

2397

2382

2530

-133

2201

+196

19

2258

2241

2330

-72

1920

+338

20

2175

2158

2262

-87

1668

+507

21

2153

2163

2223

-70

1560

+593

22

-

2165

-

-38 (M)

1491n (M)

+674 (M)

26

-

-

1301n

-

1014

-

28

795

776

-

-70 (M)

707

+88

30

671n

700n

701n

-30

515

+156

MC

1143

1156n

1299

-156

1233n

-90

ALL TYPES COP A CANING!

Buyer sentiment changed from bad to worse this sale as losses exploded to, in many cases, triple figures with the EMI almost falling a triple figure amount! The AWEX EMI collapsed by 96 cents to 1874, its largest weekly fall for 15 years with the opening day’s 72 cent reduction also the biggest daily fall since 2003. From the original national roster 38,700 bales 7% was withdrawn and 24% was passed-in (highest since February 2014) to have just 26,400 bales sold. The finer end of the market bore the brunt of the collapse as < 18.5 lost 110 to 165 cents with the 19s and broader losing 40 to 90 cents as no type or micron was immune to the big falls.

The news was no better in Room 2 as all sectors suffered. Skirtings took a massive hit as all types, regardless of length, micron or VM, gave up 130 to 200 cents. Cardings also felt the full force of buyer resistance as the 3 centres averaged falls of 138 cents as all types in this sector fell 100 to 200 cents as the MCI is now below last year’s level. As was the case last series, Crossbreds were the least affected as losses ranged from 10 cents for the broader microns to 70 cents for 28s and finer.

No-one can or would even try to predict a market movement like the one we’ve witnessed, be it up 125 cents like Sale 7 or this series, a fall of 96 cents. Reasons??: the FRX, no it fell by half a cent; the quality of the offering or quantity, unlikely; the fact that higher prices have been in vogue for some time and manufacturers are struggling to pass on these higher prices to retailers is  highly likely. Once the pull-back started after Sale 7 we had 5 weeks of stable prices then 3 series of relative calm before last week’s fall. The EMI has lost 242 cents since mid August but is still 300 cents (19%) higher than the same sale 12 months ago with the increases in all merino microns 200 to 650 cents to the good.

Most ram sales have finished in this area now with the focus moving to the Southern part of the state. On the whole most studs have reported good clearance rates and higher averages than in past years despite some clients not needing rams due to the dire season and not risking joining’s and large ewe and lamb losses. One sale of note was Grogansworth at Bowning near Yass selling 85% of the offering to top at $6,500 with an average of  2,155. Only 1 week left to vote for Woolpoll 2018 if you’re eligible - just 6200 growers have voted so far. Hopefully the dearer fleece prices in Fremantle yesterday (+5 to 15) will be enough to change saleroom sentiment and stop the rot!!

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 26 October, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

28-Nov-18

2150

2150

21

17-Apr-19

2050

2050

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Tianyu

2701

2

Seatech Ind.

2391

3

Techwool

2329

4

Fox & Lillie

1939

5

Kathaytex

1507

6

Endeavour Wool

1126

7

G Schneider

942

8

Aust. Merino

891

9

Michell Aust.

767

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1874 cents ê 96 cents compared with 19/10/2018

 

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1914 cents ê 107 cents compared with 19/10/2018

 

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7080 é 0.0053 compared with 19/10/2018

19 October 2018

Friday, October 19, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 19th October, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX 

INDEX

This Week

S16/18

This Week

M16/18

Last Sale

S15/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2743   

2700  

2857  

-114  

2338  

+405  

18

2530   

2490  

2593  

-63  

2161  

+369  

19

2330  

2324  

2381  

-51  

1885  

+445  

20

2262  

2238  

2278  

-16  

1657  

+605  

21

2223   

2208  

2243  

-20  

1553  

+670  

22

-  

2203n  

-  

-59 (M)  

1481 (M)  

+722 (M)  

26

1301n   

1336n  

1331  

-30  

1043  

+258  

28

-   

846  

906n  

-14 (M)  

741 (M)  

+105 (M)  

30

701n   

758  

711n  

-10  

521  

+180  

MC

1299   

1304n  

1382  

-83  

1206  

+93  

FINE WOOL GLUT HINDERS MARKET!

Last sale’s recovery was short lived as the market took a turn for the worst as all sectors fell sharply. The 53 cent fall for the AWEX EMI to 1970 was equal to the losses of 3 weeks ago and just shy of the 62 cent collapse in the opening sale of the season. No type was immune from the negative tone despite the superior quality of the selection on offer with the 3rd designated Super-fine sale of the season held in Sydney. The over-supply of sub 17 microns suffered the largest falls (100 to 150 cents) and even more for lots with poor additional measurement results. 19.5 to 17.5 also fell 50 to 75 cents with the broader microns > 20 giving up 20 cents late in the final session. Growers were caught by the size of the losses as 23% of the national fleece catalogue was passed-in.

Skirtings also took a decent hit with the high concentration of < 17.5 micron taking the brunt of the falls ranging from 40 to 60 cents. Cardings were the worst performing sector as the 3 centres averaged 100 cent losses. High flying LKS collapsed to the tune of 100 to 150 cents with CRT/STN giving up 30 to 40 cents as 25% of the Sydney offering failed to sell. Crossbreds looked to escape the carnage of their merino cousins as losses ranged from 10 to 30 cents.

Despite the national catalogue falling further behind last year’s figures, now 74,300 bales which is 2 selling weeks or 13% the market couldn’t sustain last series mini recovery. The vast majority of the offering is still very much drought affected and, as a result, finer than what most Chinese mills are looking for and not up to the standard that the Europeans require. This sale’s merino fleece selection on the East Coast was a full micron finer than the corresponding sale last year. This is backed up by the latest AWTA figures that, despite testing 11% less wool than last season to date, 70% more wool tested below 16.5, 19% more in the 16.6 to 17.5 range and 9% up 17.6 to 18.5 micron bracket.

European demand does remain strong on the “right types” as does interest from India but once outside their specs the price gap is up to 800 cents from the very best types to the worst. Demand remains strong for 19 microns and broader as the large topmakers and indent buyers from China are still active and could lead to better market conditions reappearing sooner rather than later.

Next week’s offering is just shy of 39,000 bales with a bit less fine wool on offer to hopefully see a settled market. The slight lift in the FRX didn’t seem to be a hindrance this sale but most pundits don’t want to see the A$ go higher. Don’t forget just 2 weeks left to vote for Woolpoll 2018, just 10% of eligible growers have voted so far.

                               Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 19 October, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

12-Dec-18

2185

2185


              Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

3896

2

Seatech Ind.

2946

3

Tianyu

2596

4

Endeavour

2216

5

Fox & Lillie

2078

6

Aust. Merino

1701

7

United Wool

1376

8

Modiano

905

9

Kathaytex

799

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1970cents ê 53 cents compared with 12/10/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2021 cents ê 49 cents compared with 12/10/2018



AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7133 é 0.0063 compared with 12/10/2018

12 October 2018

Friday, October 12, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 12th October, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX

INDEX

This Week 

S15/18 

This Week  

M15/18  

Last Sale  

S14/18 

Sydney Change

Last Year   

Sydney   

  Sydney Yearly  

Change

17

2857   

2775   

2869   

-12   

2301   

+558   

18

2593   

2563   

2583   

+10   

2156   

+437   

19

2381   

2389   

2346   

+35   

1886   

+495   

20

2278   

2278   

2225   

+53   

1681n   

+597   

21

2243   

2263   

2186   

+57   

1589n   

+654   

22

-   

2262   

-   

+96 (M)   

1502 (M)   

+760 (M)   

26

1331   

-   

1351n   

-20   

1053   

+278   

28

906n   

860   

904n   

+2   

753   

+153   

30

711n   

768   

701n   

+10   

526   

+185   

MC

1382   

1410n   

1385   

-3   

1188n   

+194   

MARKET ON THE UPWARD TREND, STORMS STILL PATCHY

The wool market did what everyone was hoping for after last Thursday’s solid finish to that series. Good gains over the 2 days had the AWEX EMI recapture almost a third of its losses from the previous 3 sales, up by 31 cents to sit back over the 2000 cent mark at 2023. The relative stability of the FRX saw the EMI in $US post a 20 cent gain to 1430. The biggest benefactors were the broader microns, > 19 up by 35 to 60 cents as finer microns were a touch cheaper bar the superior types that were quoted 50/60 dearer under renewed competition.

Skirtings also followed the lead from their fleece wool counterparts ascending by 20 to 30 cents with emphasis on < 5% VM. Cardings had a flat sale after LKS gave up 10/20 cents while STN added a similar amount. This halted the steep falls of the past 3 sales (178 cents) after setting a new record in early September. Crossbreds had an up and down series as < 26s lost 20 to 30 cents while broader types added up to 10 cents.

The market certainly benefitted from the lower $A v $US rate on Wednesday as the conversion rate was at its best for almost 3 years. The lift in the market a relief for growers as many thought the correction was in the wind for last sale. Exporters scrambled to cover off inventory as some of the larger top-makers and indent buyers have made the decision to ramp up their purchases to ensure supply for upcoming increased machinery demands. Focus is well and truly on a shortfall in supply and a major concern for all in the processing chain. We are already 64,500 bales (12%) behind last season’s volume offered with this figure to become larger. With this in mind the Aust. Wool Prod. Forecasting Committee will meet on 14th November, 4 weeks earlier than was scheduled to give an updated report on how the numbers will be crunched re forecasted volumes post-Christmas something the Global Textile industry will be keeping a very close eye on.

All growers should have now received information for the Woolpoll 2018 vote. There are only 3 weeks left to vote either by reply paid mail, a toll free number (1800 211 736) or online at www.woolpoll.com.au AWI has been holding a series of info seminars to talk about marketing and research and the vote on the level of wool tax growers can vote on 1 of 5 options. Meetings at Dunedoo and Wellington saw about 30 growers at each - AWI stressed the importance of voting and how the reduced volume of wool sold will affect the amount of tax to be collected thus putting some projects at risk due to less wool tax revenue. Market should be stable with 37,000 bales on offer.        

                                     Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 12 October, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

23-Jan-19

2200

2200

21

10-Apr-19

2165

2165

 

                 Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

3866

2

Tianyu

3183

3

Fox & Lillie

3011

4

Modiano

2172

5

Aust. Merino

1946

6

PJ Morris

1639

7

Michell Aust.

1564

8

Seatech Ind.

1398

9

Lempriere

1072

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2023cents é 31 cents compared with 5/10/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2070 cents é 20 cents compared with 5/10/2018



AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7070 ê 0.0010 compared with 5/10/2018