WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 10th July, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

A STRONG FINISH!!

Too much wool on offer with the subdued demand for exporters to handle?? Or the realisation that, with the looming 3 week winter recess upon us, this week’s sale would be their last chance to buy any meaningful quantity of wool till early August. Luckily for growers selling in this series the latter came into play. There was a real concern that the 35,000 bales on offer was going to be more than enough for the orders that were placed and a cheaper trend was on the cards, especially for us who were selling last on the final day with the 3^rd largest catalogue in Sydney (1550 bales). This was far from the case as a cautious approach by buyers on the opening day pushing the market into sellers’ favour led to a more frantic buying urgency in the final session till the final lots were sold. This saw the AWEX EMI adding 18 cents to 1134. In US$ terms a 14 cent gain to 787 was the result as the FRX looks to be stuck at a whisker below 70 cents - virtually identical to a year ago. Finer and broader fleece types were the beneficiaries of the renewed competition with < 18 and > 21 microns lifting by 20 to 50 cents while 18.5s to 20.5 were just dearer while, in Melbourne, 17.5s rose 90 cents and 21s gained 60 cents. All descriptions of skirtings gained 20 to 30 cents while cardings finished the series just in buyers’ favour. Crossbreds followed the lead of their merino counterparts with prices ascending by as much as 20 to 50 cents. In a coup for our new partnership with Carmicheal & Co. they offered the largest XB catalogue in Sydney this week, 23% bigger than any other broker. Together we had a combined catalogue of 425 bales of XB wool. 

A good finish to the market as we head into a well earned 3 week recess after what can only be described as a 6 month period that as far as the health and economic destruction of the globe has been, historically it will be judged as bad or worse than anything preceding it. Other pandemics and World Wars have taken millions more lives but the economic ramifications could easily outdo the Great Depression, only time will tell. As we stated earlier the rush to secure wool before the 3 week recess led to a strengthening market. This opening 2 week increase for the season (24 cents) and the 28 cent rise over 2 sales in  late May/early June were the only 2 times the market has put together back to back gains since consecutive weekly increases before Christmas (a 66 cent jump to 1558) and, with the opening sale in January gaining another 51 cents to 1605 (117 cents for the 3 sales), today’s prices are a mile away from those levels pre Covid-19 and it could be a very extended period of time before we get close to them again.  

An email outlining Covid-19 market information is below this market report. This is a very informative document that outlines the damage that has been done to global economies by Covid-19 and needs to be read by woolgrowers.

https://macwool.worldsecuresystems.com/LiteratureRetrieve.aspx?ID=254269

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 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 3rd July, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

OFF TO A STEADY START!

With very little demand to support even a national catalogue of as few as 20,000 bales, most people thought this week’s opening sale of the season with 30,000 bales on offer was going to be a bridge too far for exporters. As we predicted last week, if new business wasn’t forthcoming, the market could’ve dropped below 1100 cents. Luckily this wasn’t to be as fresh enquiry led to spatterings of business being written. Also, with the 3 week winter recess almost upon us it was enough to keep the market’s head above water. Two solid days of selling saw the AWEX EMI add 6 cents to its value to 1116. In US$ terms the move was minimal (a 2 cent lift to 772) as the FRX traded in a range from 68.5 to 69.2 cents. All fleece microns recorded single figure shifts - 6 cents for 17s and finer and 3 to 9 cent increases for all others. Growers were happy to take the money as 98% of fleece was cleared in Sydney. Skirtings had a firm sale as all types were tending in buyers’ favour with < 16.5 micron “B” fault, best style skirtings were 30 cents dearer. Cardings continued to slide as the MCI fell by 13 cents to 801 undoing all the rises from a month ago. Crossbreds added 20 to 30 cents to their previous quotes.

Any rise is a good rise! The final 3 weeks of the season had seen the market lose 73 cents to come close to falling below 1100 cents but this week’s mini recovery might delay this unfortunate milestone mark. As was the case in May, a bit of business can lift or see the market stabilise when volumes are not large enough to fill the demand but, on the other hand, when the market is treading water or no demand is in the market even small national catalogues are too big for the market to handle. According to most exporters, a recovery in demand looks to be a long way off. Some restrictions are being lifted in some European countries, a sign that life may be returning to some form of normality but there are still many countries where the pandemic is in its 2^nd wave and restrictions are being re-enforced and the brakes being put on economic recovery. As far as employment returning to pre-Covid-19 levels, it could be 12/18 months before the degree of employment is enough to allow economies to get back to full economic production. How quickly consumers feel they are able to spend their discretionary income on non-essentials will be the driver as to when the demand picks up for woolen products and the farm gate price improves.  We must ram home our advantage of a clean, green, renewable, sustainable and traceable product. If most growers were surveyed now this would be the message they would want to be conveyed to consumers when demand picks up. The 2nd sale of the season will take place next week, then we head into a 3 week winter recess. The largest sale since late March (36,000 bales) will be on offer. Hopefully there is enough enquiry about to keep the market where it is and, with the looming recess, limited opportunity to buy wool for 3 weeks.  

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 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 26th June, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

A SEASON TO FORGET!!

Another poor week for the wool market as the final sale of the season brought more misery for wool growers to finish a season to forget for so many reasons. Our bleak prediction that the AWEX EMI could fall below 1100 cents almost came true as it finished the season at 1110 (a fall of 29 cents) saved only by a steadying market on the final day of selling. All merino fleece microns fell by 20 to 40 cents. Skirtings had a mixed sale as finer than 17.5 held their ground as the broader types retreated by another 40 to 60 cents. Cardings also continued their cheaper trend as all types in this sector fell by 40 to 90 cents and, to round out the disappointing week, crossbreds lost 30/40 cents.

The only few good things to report on over the past season has been the incredible prices that lambs, sheep and cattle have been making for some time now and autumn rains over a vast area breaking the back of the drought. As far as wool prices go it is a season to forget. A 605 cent reduction (1715 to 1110) is the sad tale of the tape - a 35.3% fall. In US$ terms the losses were identical in % terms a 35.8 fall from 1199 to771. The FRX however is virtually unchanged at 69 cents with a peak over 75 and a low point of 55 cents. With the falling market the pass-in rate climbed to 17% up from 11 last season. All this despite the national offering being reduced by 195,000 bales to 1.47 million, an 11% drop in volume primarily due to drought. No1 buyer was Techwool Trading securing 178,000 bales; next was the new buying entity having its first full year of trading was Endeavour Wool with 111,000 bales; and 3^rd was Fox & Lillie who bought 104,000 bales. The top 10 buyers bought 72% of the offering.

This is certainly a season to forget. After a run of very high wool prices that started back in 2016 the end of the “super-cycle” started almost 2 years ago but did recover until Easter last year when the current run of falling prices we are in now began. The big fall in August last year from 1754 to 1365 certainly put paid to any price recovery back to the lofty heights the EMI enjoyed. The market did seem to find a base to trade between 1500 and 1650 from September to March when it started to fall to today’s level. The reasons are varied for the falling market, from prices getting to high, (every commodity has a point when price dictates over everything else) to drought affected wools to, of course, the devastating effects of Covid-19. When will economic growth lift?? The pandemic is still rampant in many countries and, with the fear of a 2^nd wave, this could delay global economic recovery by another 6/12 months as most countries are still heading into recession, let alone on the road back so consumer spending on discretionary goods like clothing and electronics will be very slow.

The new season starts next week with 31,000 bales on offer in the 3 centres. If new business isn’t forthcoming, the market will struggle to hold where it is.

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 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 12th June, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

NEW ENTITY BROADENS OUR BASE

Next week marks a new chapter for our wool brokerage business. We are launching a new trading entity, Carmichael & Co Woolbrokers, to be operated by a team of former TWG Wool employees which has been wound up after 115 years of trading by its Canadian parent company Nutrien. Established in 1905 by Thomas Green, in Cooma, the company has traded for decades offering woolgrowers a personalised independent service built on the same philosophies that we have also operated on.

Manager Jason Carmichael who is a direct descendant of Thomas Green will auction the first catalogue for Carmichael & Co Woolbrokers next Tuesday. The business when founded operated in Cooma, Crookwell and Guyra, all in excess of 3000 feet above sea level which was the theory to drought-proof the business given this was around the time of the infamous Federation drought so the attraction to us was along similar lines and, although the Monaro is still in drought, we believe the strategy is a good one. Depots for Carmichael & Co are now operating in Cooma, Crookwell, Guyra, Cootamundra and Wellington with wool being stored and cored at our Dubbo woolstore and under contract principally in Cooma, Yass, Bathurst and Goulburn. Tamworth, Wagga and Yarrawonga will also see small quantities.

So it’s a great welcome from us at MacWool to the staff and clients of Carmichael & Co.

Onto the market. The softer tone late last week sadly continued in this series. With just the 2 eastern seaboard centres operating only 15,800 bales were offered, 425 more than the smallest sale of 2 weeks ago for 25 years. As is sometimes the case, tiny offerings don’t always mean a dearer market as the most recent orders and prompt shipment needs had been filled the trade was almost completely reliant on new business being written. This was not forthcoming and the market suffered. The AWEX EMI fell by 32 cents to 1139 (its lowest point for 5 years) as < 17.5 micron lost 10/25 cents while broader microns bore the brunt of the downward trend giving up 35 to 50 cents. The lower yielding wools were the driving force in the cheaper market with exporters still struggling to average these lots into their purchases. The ever-increasing volume of higher yielding types was least affected but there is still not enough of these coming through to blend successfully with the lower yielding types. Skirtings also suffered losses similar to their fleece counterparts, 40 to 60 cents back. Cardings had a mixed sale as finer types < 17.5 micron look 5/10 cents dearer while broader lots gave up 15 to 25 cents with crossbreds finishing 20 cents down.

All 3 centres are in action for the final sale of the season with 30,240 bales catalogued, the biggest sale since early April. If there is not a sprinkling of business done early next week we could see the EMI fall below 1100 cents.

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 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 12th June, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

MARKET STUMBLES, TOO MUCH WOOL??

The market started this series on a solid footing which pointed to a 3^rd week of rises but, unfortunately, this was not to be as losses in the final session saw the AWEX EMI retreat after a fortnight of positive movements. The EMI fell by 12 cents to 1171 and 8 cents to 813 in US$ terms as the FRX finished the week where it started, 69.50 after peaking at 70 cents earlier in the week. The falls were uniform across all microns - 30 to 35 cents with only the better style types less affected. Skirtings had a quiet sale to be quoted as firm/unchanged while cardings couldn’t continue their rising trend as the MCI lost 10 cents as high VM CRT/STN gave up 20 cents while fine LKS gained 15/20 cents. Crossbreds were solid for < 28 micron as broader types added 10 to 15 cents.

The short-term orders that saw the market stabilise over the past month look to have been filled for the time being. A contributing factor for the reversal in this series was the high number of fleece types that were unable to average the required 70% washing yield for many Chinese orders. Most mills are still very cautious to place new orders and these are for small quantities. There is, however, a better take-up of old existing orders down the pipeline but not in the volume needed to call this a full-blown recovery as early stage processors are still reporting cash flow problems. Short wool types for open top, knitted and semi-worsted processing look to be quicker to recover than the traditional worsted sector. Scoured and carbonised carding wools are also in increasing demand as the local Chinese market shows signs of a lift in consumer spending as more retailers open their doors and entice customers back in. Current prices are attractive right down the pipeline to the retailer but their main focus is to reopen and try to clear old stock at minimal losses before placing new orders for the Northern hemisphere autumn/winter season. The pipeline from greasy wool sold to Chinese retailers can be quick when the demand kicks in.

Showfloor chatter from the buyers seems to be concerned about volumes in the new season exceeding demand. Normally there is some wool that is held back from sale till the new financial year ticks over. We can’t see this happening (certainly not with us). In fact, many growers have had the need to sell wool/stock to finance their farming operations because of the Autumn break. For those holding wool the question is when to sell? Has the market bottomed out and how long will the wait be before prices get back to acceptable levels? The OECD forecasts 2 years before global economic activity returns to a level pre Covid-19 (final 6 months of 2019) with or without a 2^nd wave of infection we could be in for a long road back. Just the 2 east coast centres selling next week with only 16,800 bales on offer. Hopefully a small enough quantity to stop the market’s slide.

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Main Buyers (This Week)

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 5th June, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

CAN THE MARKET RISE 3 WEEKS IN A ROW??

With just the 2 eastern seaboard centres selling this series’ supply, or lack of, was always odds-on to come out in front. The national weekly offering of 15,300 bales was the smallest in 25 years as the market followed conventional economic theory of reduced supply attracting stronger demand. With supply so light only a few extra orders in the market had demand increasing to have the AWEX EMI add 13 cents to 1183. Even more impressive was the rise in US$ terms (up by 44 cents to 821) a consequence of the FRX appreciating in favour of the A$ by 3 cents (4.5%) - a massive shift. Fine fleece indicators < 18 micron were marginally dearer (5 to 10) while 18.5s to 22s added 15 to 30 cents. Skirtings outdid their fleece counterparts climbing by 25 to 45 cents with only 24 bales passed-in as extra knitwear orders were placed. Carding continued their price recovery as all types in this sector were quoted 20 to 40 cents higher to have the MCI gain 41 cents to 884, an 89 cent (11%) rise over the past 3 weeks having reached a low point that was too hard to ignore a month ago. Crossbreds also benefitted from the renewed demand to rise 10 to 30 cents.

One thing that is noticeable is the slight improvement in yields of fleece wools. The recent rain has certainly washed some dust out and the resulting ground cover has less dust being kicked up from sheep moving through paddocks. Buyers are certainly looking forward to being able to buy higher yielding wools but will also have to contend with a higher VM %  and are still having difficulty placing types with high mid-breaks and low tensile strength - these should decrease as we move through winter.

Three weeks of rises from the past 5 sales would suggest a recovery is on the way?? No-one is prepared to go out on that limb and declare the worst is behind us. Tight supply has certainly been the main reason for the market’s steady tracking recently and, as this series showed, even as the FRX shot up to a 4-month high, it couldn’t dampen buyers’ renewed demand. Global economic conditions have not changed but, as travel and social-distancing restrictions ease and people return to full-time work, then will we see a lift in consumer spending and demand for discretionary goods as money becomes more readily available to spend on non-essentials. How long could this take?? Given the March quarter recorded a negative growth figure in every developed economy (Australia was -0.3%) and the June quarter will be worse, we are still going into a recession and not beginning to come out of it so global economic recovery may not even start till late this year/early 2021. The European Commission is providing a $750 billion recovery fund of which $500 billion is in the form of grants to help economies get back on their feet and consumers to resume work and spend again.

Fremantle joins the fray again next week as the national catalogue rises to 24,000 bales. Hopefully not enough to dampen demand given the sharp rise in the FRX.

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 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 29th May, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL??

Buyer sentiment moved to the positive this week as all sectors of the market posted gains. The AWEX EMI crept 15 cents higher to 1170. The appreciation of the FRX by 1 cent to 66.5 saw the market increase by 21 cents to 777 in US$ terms. The price increases were very even across the merino microns. 18 to 30 cents covered most types with some of the best lots commanding higher premiums as just 4% of the fleece offering was passed-in in Sydney. Finer skirtings < 17.5 micron also gained 20/30 cents with broader types unchanged. Cardings continued to add to last series’ gains by posting a 20 cent rise in the MCI, all types were 20 to 50 cents higher. Crossbreds also looked 15 to 20 cents better.

Could the market finally reach the bottom? May saw the EMI have 2 positive and 2 negative weeks to trade between 1179 and 1155 just a 24 cent movement. A solid month when compared to the wild fluctuations of January, March and April with February also having very little price shift (13 cents - 1581 to 1568). The news from China keeps improving as their industrial economy had a strong bounce back in April after facing the first 3 months of the year experiencing their first economic quarterly contraction in history. Retail and investment figures are still weak but did improve from March to April. Year-on-year retail sales were 7.5% lower for April 2020 to April last year, a vast lift from the March figures of 16% lower this year compared to 2019. Consumer spending should improve by July/August north of the Equator as apparel producers have started to look at cloth samples again and purchasing managers are enquiring on prices at these levels - a good sign for the busier Autumn/Winter period in the northern hemisphere. Retailers could be faced with a dilemma of trying to shift out-of-date/fashion expensive stock at a loss to make way for new colours, designs and styles that will be hitting retailers for their busiest time of the year.

National offerings have averaged 22,300 bales since Easter and, with just a few new and unfilled orders in the market over the last month, with limited quantity available prices can react quickly at this end of the pipeline but buyers are still reporting hesitation at the other end to book up large volumes. Demand is the key ingredient to ensuring a farm-gate price rise and that will not happen till tens of millions of people around the globe return to work and are able to start spending their disposable income again.

Drop into our Dubbo office or Macrural at Brewarrina to pick up free woollen jumpers to keep your poddy lambs warm this winter.

      All colours and sizes for both male and female lambs!

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Main Buyers (This Week)

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 22nd May, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

MARKET REVERTS TO ‘BAD OLD DAYS’!!

Was the one week wonder just that? Looking at the market report from Melbourne on Tuesday one could be forgiven that the falling market was behind us as the 20+ cent rise in >19.5s and cardings was the start of a recovery. On the other side of the continent, however, hopes were dashed as Fremantle’s market fell by 23 cents and, as Sydney joined in on Wednesday, both eastern seaboard centres fell to debunk the myth of a market that had bottomed out. By week’s end the AWEX EMI gave up another 24 cents to 1155 completely wiping out last series’ gains. In US$ terms the descending trend was offset by the rise in the FRX of 1.25% which would’ve contributed to the falling market - just a 7cent decline to 756. Merino fleece indicators fell 45 to 65 cents while skirtings had similar losses of 30 to 50 cents. Cardings bucked the cheaper trend as all types in this sector were quoted 20/40 dearer, the MCI up by 28 cents TO 823 while XBs were in buyers’ favour.

It was a very different IWTO Congress that was held this week. Scheduled to be held in China then rescheduled to Belgium it was moved to a digital platform due to the ongoing travel restrictions. One session of interest was the Market Intelligence session in which several speakers reported. Chris Wilcox from the Nat Council of Wool Selling Brokers spoke of the awful economic conditions and low consumer confidence around the globe and that all sectors of the wool pipeline from early stage processors to garment and interior textile manufacturers had seen a massive drop in  production since the new year and a sharp rise in stock levels except garment making and the recovery in raw wool demand in the near term is very limited. Madam Peng Yanli from the China Wool Textile Association also painted a very grim picture. Production of wool fabric and yarn fell by 25% in the first 3 months of 2020 in China due to domestic and global collapse in demand. This led to the value of their wool textile and garment exports to fall more sharply in the 1^st quarter of the year than during the GFC in 2008. This led to a large number of their mills capacity utilisation fall below 50% but a significant number are returning  to 80% capacity as domestic demand recovers and conditions improve slowly in the textile industry but there are still many challenges ahead as cancelled retail orders offshore and tight restraints on working capital will slow the recovery. A full video of all speakers can be seen on the IWTO’s Facebook page or their YouTube channel at www.youtube.com/user/IWTOCHANNEL/featured.

Drop into our Dubbo office or Macrural at Brewarrina to pick up free woollen jumpers to keep your poddy lambs warm this winter.

      All colours and sizes for both male and female lambs!

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Main Buyers (This Week)

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 15th May, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

1 WEEK WONDER!!

Growers were buoyed by the positive start to this week’s wool sale as prices on the eastern seaboard made a surprisingly about-face with fleece indicators jumping by 25 to 40 cents as business was written for immediate prompt. By Wednesday the market reverted back to the all too familiar pattern, cheaper in Melbourne and Fremantle. The AWEX EMI still did manage a rise for the week breaking a 7 day run of falls, up by 9 cents to 1179 and an 11 cent gain in US$ terms to 764 as the FRX had a stable week trading around 64.75 cents. Skirtings in Sydney followed the fleece lead to gain 20/40 cents while fine LKS lifted by 20 to 30 cents as all other types in the carding sector were unchanged. Crossbreds remain out of favour as losses of 10 to 20 cents were across the spectrum. The pass-in rate dropped to 9%, the highest clearance rate (91%) since December.

While always welcome, the rise in the market looks to be short-lived. A smattering of business was written and a positive outcome for growers in this sale but global demand has not shifted to the positive. In fact it could even fall lower as the full effects of a global recession are yet to fully impact consumers till the 2^nd half of the year.

Buyers and overseas mills are reporting prices are at very competitive levels but the key component in selling any commodity is demand which is virtually running on empty so shifting unsold stock is nearly impossible. Even though spinners, weavers and retailers are coming back on line globally trying to process and on-sell tops and yarn that is 200 to 400 cents too dear is proving mission impossible and many still have greasy wool on docks still to hit the scour that were bought at prices deemed too high or, in some cases, orders have been cancelled on this wool. Many companies along the pipeline are facing financial pressure with no cash reserves set aside. Some are using this as an excuse to renegotiate expensive contracts or cancel them altogether. A vertical-integrated company in India has been rumoured to have cancelled hundreds of tonnes of greasy wool contracts. Until all this wool makes its way through the pipeline to retailers and demand picks up, prices paid to woolgrowers will continue to fall or, best case scenario, flat-line given quantities don’t exceed current volumes.

The key to consumer demand getting back to pre Covid-19 level will be the easing of lockdown restrictions and how fast people can resume work and start to spend their disposable income again. Measures are in place in many countries to get people back to work and spending money to speed up the economic recovery as soon as possible.        

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Main Buyers (This Week)

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 8th May, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

IS THE LOW POINT IN SIGHT?

Another poor week for the wool market as the pattern was similar to previous sales with demand almost non-existent as the market recorded more heavy losses across the board. It wasn’t that long ago that buyers were talking of weekly volumes of 35,000 bales being sustainable in the current environment. The absolute lack of demand has meant that, over the past 5 sales, the national catalogue has only averaged 24,000 bales but this has been unsustainable as the market has lost 117 cents, most of that (102 cents) over the last 2 sales. With passed-in lots and growers withdrawing wool the amount of wool cleared to the trade has only been about 20,000 bales/week. The AWEX EMI slumped by another 55 cents to 1170 this week - its lowest point since 2015. The fall in US$ terms was similar - a 48 cent decline to 753, a 10 year low, this despite the FRX falling by a cent to 64.35. Merino fleece types gave up 20 to 65 cents while skirtings fell by 30 to 50 cents across the entire range. Cardings fell by another 20 to 70 cents as the MCI descended by an additional 44 cents to 796 and crossbreds gave up 40 to 50 cents. Surprisingly the passed-in rate fell to 18% down from 25% last sale as more growers seem prepared to meet the market rather than risk a lower price later on.

How low can the market go?? No-one truly knows the answer and opinions are divided. Are we at the bottom? If not, at what level is the low point? And how long will the recovery take for the market to get back to an acceptable level where all participants along the pipeline can make money. Two major buyers we spoke to had varied opinions, from the market perhaps bottoming out sooner rather than later to the market progressively getting cheaper well into our winter months. One buyer thought the only way to help global economies kick start were stimulus packages but this would place all countries in more financial stress - a risk some will not take. The level of consumer confidence in  all major wool consuming countries (US, Europe, Japan and South Korea) has literally fallen off a cliff in April due to the social lockdowns and restrictions that have lead to a collapse in discretionary consumer spending. Only China’s figures showed a very small decline in February before a slight improvement in March, unbelievable!! The world is in a recession and, as to when industry and economies can be running to full capacity and unemployment rates fall as lockdown restrictions ease, then will we see consumers willing to spend their hard earned money again and economic growth rebound to levels we saw pre Covid-19. The wool market absolutely depends on consumer’s ability to spend their excess cash on our product.

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Main Buyers (This Week)