WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 11^th November, 2016

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

HILLARY GETS TRUMPED BUT WILL THE WORLD???

The wool market (and all other world events) certainly took a back seat to the most contentious US presidential election in history. In the final wash-up the EMI lost 13 cents (to fall below 1300) to finish at 1290 after an opening day’s fall followed by a surprise recovery on Thursday. In US terms the fall was similar - 9 cents to 989. Losses were fairly uniform, 10 to 20 cents across all microns bar 19.5 and 22s - in buyers’ favour by 5 cents. As has been the case for a long time, wools with good specs (even up to 2.5% VM) were, in some cases, up to 25 cents better than their indicators whereas > 3% VM felt the full force of larger discounts, out to 40 to 50 cents.

The skirting selection followed the pattern of the fleece room, big losses followed by a modest recovery. The better style types finer than 17 micron with <5% VM looked 10 to 20 cheaper while 18 and broader over 5 % gave up 20/25 cents. Cardings also suffered heavy losses, as both days recorded falls. The MCI in Sydney doubled the falls of Melbourne and Fremantle (28 cents to 14 cents) with all 3 centres now below 1100 cents. All types in this sector fell by 25 to 40 cents. The sad story that is crossbreds continued on. Finer microns <25 looked unchanged as 26 and 30 micron lost 10 cents while 28 and 32s fell by 30 cents.  Since September last year, 30 micron has fallen by 38% from its peak.

What a week!! All eyes were on the US as news filtered through that Clinton was leading well early in the count, global currencies strengthen, the $A up to 77.88 early Wednesday pm  but by 6.00pm  it collapsed to 75.80. Counting moved to the mid-west and Trump was securing votes from the Dakotas and Minnesota on the Canadian border all the way down to Texas and Louisiana. This is predominately farming country with white males 30/50 years old backing Trump with a protest vote against free-trade and falling commodity prices. This is where the billionaire with no political or armed services experience and no business degrees won the election. The forecast of a stock market crash of 700 points didn’t eventuate. Instead 400 points has been added to the Dow Jones, a potential 1100 point turn around.

Buyers took advantage of the exchange rate and retuned to the market on Thursday. Next sale will see the 3^rd week running of predicted 50,000+ sales. This will not happen as was the case this and last week dropping back 3/4,000 bales. Buyers look to be keen to secure wool leading up to the 3 week Christmas recess as quantities drop back to mid 40,000s.    

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 11 November 2016

Main Buyers (This Week)