23 November 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 23rd November, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX	This Week S21/18	This Week M21/18	Last Sale S20/18	Sydney Change	Last Year Sydney	Sydney Yearly Change
17	2472	2448n	2445	+27	2460	+12
18	2343	2319	2278	+65	2277	+66
19	2204	2210	2104	+100	1985	+217
20	2172	2164	2057	+115	1758	+414
21	2158	2159	2048	+110	1636	+522
22	-	2144n	-	+59 (M)	1548n (M)	+596 (M)
26	1245n	-	1140n	+105	1055	+190
28	845n	861	760	+85	731	+114
30	-	734	663n	+50 (M)	539 (M)	+195 (M)
MC	1180	1183n	1100	+69	1381n	-201

AT LONG LAST, THE MARKET LIFTS

Finally, after weeks of showfloor chatter of a recovery in the market, it did happen!! Hopes were high after the last series’ modest rises that the market could get some serious traction and recoup the recent losses. Whether it be the lower quantities on offer, the fall in the FRX from the Tuesday night high of 73.35 cents to 72.3 before sales commenced, the latest release of wool production forecasting figures or just that the market had fallen enough and the Chinese deemed it was time to step back in and start to buy again is anyone’s guess.

Whatever the reason it was a dearer market in all sectors. The AWEX EMI clawed back 77 cents to 1858 led by the medium wool types (19 to 22s) up by 100 to 120 cents. Finer microns were dearer but not to the extent of their broader cousins, still hindered by oversupply and poor quality, 18/18.5 jumped by 60 to 70 cents while < 18 could only find 15 to 30 cent gains as discounts for any fault shrunk as 97.6% of fleece lots were sold in Sydney.

The positive tone also extended to Room 2 as skirtings, regardless of VM, style or micron added 40 to 80 cents to their values. It was another good sale for cardings as they jumped an identical amount to last series, 80 cents to 1180 as all types posted 50 to 80 cent rises. Crossbreds weren’t to be outdone either as < 28s climbed by 85 to 110 cents while broader than 30 microns looked up to 50 cents to the good.

As mentioned above whatever it takes for the market to rise is welcome but a major factor could have been the latest release of figures by the Wool Production Forecasting Committee that met last week, a month ahead of schedule due to global concern of supply in Australia. The new forecast came in at 305mkg for the current season, down from the 322mkg that was predicted at their August meeting and back by 11% on the 341mkg from last season. These figures are backed up by the AWTA stats that are 9.7% behind last year’s totals to the end of October and offerings are 17% (136,800 bales) lower than to the same sale last year. NSW production is predicted to fall by 20% this season to 100mkg, the lowest since 1902 with some brokers talking of a 25% reduction of wool through their stores by July next year. Alarming stats indeed! Talk of the market keeping this momentum is all the rage with only 3 sales before Christmas buyers need to deliver wool to their mills promptly to process in the new year with the 3 week recess looming.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 23 November 2018

Micron	Date	Low	High
21	20-Feb-19	2100	2100
21	22-May-19	2050	2050

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Tianyu

3719

2

Techwool

3469

3

Endeavour Wool

2956

4
Fox & Lillie
2686

5

PJ Morris

1916

6

Michell Aust.

1658

7

Seatech Ind.

1148

8

Aust. Merino

1082

9

Modiano

846

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1858 cents é 77 cents compared with 16/11/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1898 cents é 79 cents compared with 16/11/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7252 ê 0.0021 compared with 16/11/2018

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Weekly Market Reports

23 November 2018

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