Weekly Market Reports


24 August 2012

admin Macwool - Friday, August 24, 2012

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 24th August, 2012

Northern Micron Indices Comparison: Source of information: AWEX

 

AWEX
INDEX

This Week
24/08/12

Last Week
17/08/12

Change

Last Year
24/08/11

Yearly
Change

17

1274n

1327n

-53

2243n

-969

18

1195

1240

-45

1824

-629

19

1121

1140

-19

1572

-451

20

1079

1076

+3

1377

-298

21

1077

1076

+1

1328

-251

22

1060

1072n

-12

1287n

-227

23

1045 (M)

1071 (M)

-26

1164 (M)

-119

28

553

550

+3

691

-138

30

520

506

+14

631

-111

32

435n

424n

+11

581

-146

MC

530

517

+13

702

-172

THE ROT HAS STOPPED – FOR NOW

The bold predictions of the market being near or at the bottom late last week proved to be spot on. History tells us that when the market takes a hit like the past two weeks (and indeed the rot set in with Sale 2 before the recess), falls in the market to the extent we’ve seen usually last for that period - 2 to 3 weeks.  The pattern started similar to the previous fortnight with the market falling rapidly to begin with, then steadying on the middle day, then to everyone’s relief a final day rally to see the market claw back a little of the ground it had lost over the past 9 days of falls dating back to Sale 2. Over those 9 days the EMI fell 145 cents, the largest losing streak since 2008. Fine indicators, 18.5 and under, again took the brunt of the falls to record 35 to 55 cent reductions. 19 microns gave up 20 cents while the 22 and 23 micron types lost 10 to 20 cents. The middle micron lots in the 19.5 to 21 range fared the best for the week just keeping their noses above water selling in growers’ favour. The EMI lost just 8 cents for the week. Sentiment changed rapidly as the mood on Thursday was one of renewed competition and more spirited bidding than we’d seen for some time. Our some-what cautious approach to valuing led to some pleasant results as only a few fleece lots were passed in with some making good increases on what we had anticipated with more acceptance of colour, soft cott and less discounting for VM in the 2 to 3% range. A pleasant turn-around!

Skirtings had an up and down sale following the movements of the fleece room as early losses of 10 to 20 cents were negated by a recovery late in the week to see most styles and descriptions on par to their opening levels. The only sector to struggle was bellies which failed to recover from the opening day’s losses. Cardings also struggled to find any direction early in the week but finished to the good by 13 cents. All types added 15 to 30 cents to lift the indicator to 530. Crossbreds also came home with a wet sail to post a 5 to 15 cent gain across the board.

A nice change to see the brakes put on the sliding market this week. Where to exactly is now the focus and debate as to what the next move in the market is has varied answers. Some traders are talking of a rally as early as September while other theories point to an October/November price lift. The most disappointing sector of the market is the fine wool job. This will be no more evident than next week as Newcastle hosts its opening sale of the season. Growers will be aghast at the price difference in12 months. The EMI has lost 323 cents with 16.5s back by 1100 cents, 17s almost 1000 off, 18 micron 630 back and 19s 450 cents off.  Very disappointing with the likelihood of a fine wool recovery still a long way off. Don’t forget the Rabobank National Ram Sale next week, Tuesday to Thursday, with results of the wether trial coordinated by Andrew Mills for all to see with the Ram sale on Thursday morning.

                   

Ag Concepts forward price trades W/E 23 August

MPG

Maturity

High

Low

21

17-Oct-12

1070

1070

23

31-Oct-12

1020

1020

21

24-Apr-13

1060

1060

21

21-Aug-13

1020

1020

               

1

Viterra Wool

5744

2

Lempriere (Aust)

3070

3

Queensland Cotton

2815

4

Techwool Trading

2661

5

Fox & Lillie

2653

6

Williams Wool

2587

7

Australian Merino Exp

1244

8

Michell Pty Ltd

973

9

G Schneider (Aust)

869

                       

                Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)                        AUD/USD Currency Exchange

                Eastern 941 cents ê 8 cents compared with 16/08/12                                   1.0524 é 0.0039 compared with 16/08/12

                Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

                Northern 955 cents ê 6 cents compared with 16/08/12

Comments
Post has no comments.
Post a Comment





Trackback Link
http://www.macwool.com.au/BlogRetrieve.aspx?BlogID=4383&PostID=308697&A=Trackback
Trackbacks
Post has no trackbacks.