Weekly Market Reports


25 September 2015

admin Macwool - Friday, September 25, 2015

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 25th September, 2015

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

 AWEX INDEX

This Week

S13/15

This Week

M13/15

Last Sale

S12/15

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1464

1455

1462

+2

1250

+214

18

1428

1416

1437

-9

1217

+211

19

1346

1348

1356

-10

1162

+184

20

1278

1280

1294

-16

1126

+152

21

1265

1266

1278

-13

1121

+144

22

1257

1264

1269n

-12

1094n

+163

26

1138n

1143n

1145n

-7

803n

+335

28

910

921

934

-24

671

+239

30

875

871n

886

-11

655

+220

MC

1099

1098

1097

+2

775

+324

MARKET MUST BE NEARING THE BOTTOM – SURELY!!

This week’s sale brought no real relief for the wool market as the losses did slow to a trickle when compared to previous sales. The EMI fell just 6 cents to 1228. In US terms the fall was bigger, 28 cents to 860 cents. This large fall was a result of the exchange rate dropping to 70 cents from a high of 72 last Friday. All merino fleece indicators gave up 10 to 20 cents, bar 17 to 17.5 which recorded no movement either way, helped along by the good selection on offer. The sale opened on a sour note as losses were widespread with buyers able to pick and choose lots at will. The final day of selling did bring some relief as most microns finished in sellers’ favour due to some outstanding commitments being filled. Highlights were few and far between. Some stylish super-fine types attracted strong competition and premiums were generous when compared to lower-spec types. One 20.5 micron lot from Wellington looked to have virtually no discount for being tender (15 nkt) with a clip from Cobar with over 3% VM no discount for the burr and a short(56mm) dusty (59.0%) fleece lot from Carinda about 40 cents better than the indicator.

Skirtings had a reasonable sale as some holes that appeared on the opening day in some microns and VM only to be filled on the final day to leave all types and lengths regardless of VM or micron unchanged for the sale. Growers in Fremantle warmed to these prices selling every bale on offer (957). Cardings edged a little higher to see the MCI in Sydney on 1099 - a great level as we close in on 1100 cents. Crossbreds had a tough sale as falls were across the board. 26 and 32 micron lost 5 cents while all other indicators gave up 10 to 25 cents. Maybe the anticipated build up of impending volume as we move into spring shearing have buyers in a far less urgent buying pattern. Still prices are very good. We had 4 clips this week that averaged $1,000/bale to $1,090/bale, levels these growers had never seen.

The soft opening soon evaporated as positive signals from India, China and Europe gave buyers confidence to commence covering old sales, buy inventory or even sell forward. Sentiment is gradually improving as more sales for forward orders and indent operators return to the sale rooms. Both NAB and ANZ are forecasting problems for the local economy with ANZ predicting a cut to the cash rate of 50 basis points post Christmas to just 1.5% as the global economy slows led by China and an unemployment rate that stays around 6%. The drop in mining investment, the weakening housing market and the economic slowdown in our major Asian trading partners will hurt the region as a whole. These forecasts will add significant pressure to the $A, as support at 68 cents is fading fast and a sustained fall could be close. History says a plunging $ is also tied in with falling commodity prices.

Ram sales continued in earnest this week. Some results are: Roseville Park 100% cleared, 150 rams averaged $3,110, up by $650 on last year with a top price of $14,000; Coddington Uardry Polls from Yeoval topped out at $5,000 to average $1,800 for the Poll rams and $1,500 for their Dohne selection; Coonamble Dohne Stud, Calga, averaged $1,910 with a top price of $8,250 for a total clearance; Wanganella and Boonoke Poll had a top price of $17,000 to average $2,940 for 175 rams. Top prices and averages as well as clearance rate look well ahead of previous years.

For the past seven weeks totals have been well under 40,000 bales/week. This could well change as the next 3 sales are expected to average about 42,000. What effect this will have on the market is anyone’s guess. Whether the change in sentiment late yesterday can lead to a recovery is still undecided as confidence (a key in any commodity market) is still not quite there as external factors are playing their part.

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

4143

2

Fox & Lillee

2946

3

Chinatex

2819

4

Tianyu Wool

2602

5

Australian Merino

2532

6

Lempriere

2425

7

Michell Aust.

1766

8

Modiano (Aust)

1453

9

PJ Morris

1438

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1228 cents ê 6 cents compared with 18/09/2015

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1248 cents ê 8 cents compared with 18/09/2015

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7001 ê 0.0189  compared with 18/09/2015

Comments
Post has no comments.
Post a Comment





Trackback Link
http://www.macwool.com.au/BlogRetrieve.aspx?BlogID=4383&PostID=657128&A=Trackback
Trackbacks
Post has no trackbacks.