26 October 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 26^th October, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX	This Week S17/18	This Week M17/18	Last Sale S16/18	Sydney Change	Last Year Sydney	Sydney Yearly Change
17	2582	2566	2743	-161	2377	+205
18	2397	2382	2530	-133	2201	+196
19	2258	2241	2330	-72	1920	+338
20	2175	2158	2262	-87	1668	+507
21	2153	2163	2223	-70	1560	+593
22	-	2165	-	-38 (M)	1491n (M)	+674 (M)
26	-	-	1301n	-	1014	-
28	795	776	-	-70 (M)	707	+88
30	671n	700n	701n	-30	515	+156
MC	1143	1156n	1299	-156	1233n	-90

ALL TYPES COP A CANING!

Buyer sentiment changed from bad to worse this sale as losses exploded to, in many cases, triple figures with the EMI almost falling a triple figure amount! The AWEX EMI collapsed by 96 cents to 1874, its largest weekly fall for 15 years with the opening day’s 72 cent reduction also the biggest daily fall since 2003. From the original national roster 38,700 bales 7% was withdrawn and 24% was passed-in (highest since February 2014) to have just 26,400 bales sold. The finer end of the market bore the brunt of the collapse as < 18.5 lost 110 to 165 cents with the 19s and broader losing 40 to 90 cents as no type or micron was immune to the big falls.

The news was no better in Room 2 as all sectors suffered. Skirtings took a massive hit as all types, regardless of length, micron or VM, gave up 130 to 200 cents. Cardings also felt the full force of buyer resistance as the 3 centres averaged falls of 138 cents as all types in this sector fell 100 to 200 cents as the MCI is now below last year’s level. As was the case last series, Crossbreds were the least affected as losses ranged from 10 cents for the broader microns to 70 cents for 28s and finer.

No-one can or would even try to predict a market movement like the one we’ve witnessed, be it up 125 cents like Sale 7 or this series, a fall of 96 cents. Reasons??: the FRX, no it fell by half a cent; the quality of the offering or quantity, unlikely; the fact that higher prices have been in vogue for some time and manufacturers are struggling to pass on these higher prices to retailers is highly likely. Once the pull-back started after Sale 7 we had 5 weeks of stable prices then 3 series of relative calm before last week’s fall. The EMI has lost 242 cents since mid August but is still 300 cents (19%) higher than the same sale 12 months ago with the increases in all merino microns 200 to 650 cents to the good.

Most ram sales have finished in this area now with the focus moving to the Southern part of the state. On the whole most studs have reported good clearance rates and higher averages than in past years despite some clients not needing rams due to the dire season and not risking joining’s and large ewe and lamb losses. One sale of note was Grogansworth at Bowning near Yass selling 85% of the offering to top at $6,500 with an average of 2,155. Only 1 week left to vote for Woolpoll 2018 if you’re eligible - just 6200 growers have voted so far. Hopefully the dearer fleece prices in Fremantle yesterday (+5 to 15) will be enough to change saleroom sentiment and stop the rot!!

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 26 October, 2018

Micron	Date	Low	High
21	28-Nov-18	2150	2150
21	17-Apr-19	2050	2050

Main Buyers (This Week)

1	Tianyu	2701	2	Seatech Ind.	2391	3	Techwool	2329
4	Fox & Lillie	1939	5	Kathaytex	1507	6	Endeavour Wool	1126
7	G Schneider	942	8	Aust. Merino	891	9	Michell Aust.	767

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1874 cents ê 96 cents compared with 19/10/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1914 cents ê 107 cents compared with 19/10/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7080 é 0.0053 compared with 19/10/2018

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Weekly Market Reports

26 October 2018

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