Weekly Market Reports


4 November 2016

admin Macwool - Friday, November 04, 2016

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 4th November, 2016

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S18/16

This Week

M18/16

Last Sale

S17/16

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1643

1623n

1669

-26

1506

+137

18

1622

1605

1641

-19

1484

+138

19

1545

1533

1573

-28

1407

+138

20

1439

1422

1468

-29

1354

+85

21

1378

1363

1415n

-37

1341

+37

22

1352n

1354

1388n

-36

1328n

+24

26

1008n

1025n

-

-59 (M)

1050n

-42

28

706

705

735

-29

878

-172

30

565

572

594

-29

840

-275

MC

1120n

1100

1128n

-8

1077

+42

WE ALL HOPE HILLARY TRUMPS TRUMP!! 

The market finally succumbed to outside pressures as 28 cents was peeled off the AWEX EMI, now at 1303. The losses equated to 18 cents in US$ terms slipping below 1000 to 998 cents. After 5 weeks of consecutive rises a rising exchange rate (peaking at 76.85 US cents), softening demand and the largest national catalogue since early August all conspired to see the market fall. Losses were across the board: <18.5 gave back 20 to 25 cents while the broader microns out to 23 fell 30 to 40 cents. Only the superior style, high NKT and low CVH lots came under previous sale’s competitive tension to fall only marginally or even outdo their indicators by up to 25 cents.

Skirtings weren’t immune from the cheaper tone of the fleece room. Falls were across the board but not to the extent of fleece types. Losses ranged from 5 to 25 cents depending on VM, micron and style. The shine came off cardings as this sector suffered the least to fall an average of 10 cents in each centre. This comes on the back of 7 weekly gains in a row - the MCI adding 79 cents, 1049 to 1128. The main culprit in this sector was STN which fell by 20 cents as all other types remained solid to buyers’ favour. Crossbreds seem completely out of sorts as the finer microns (<26) copped a whipping falling 50+ cents while >28s lost 20 to 30 cents, now hopefully at the bottom of the price cycle. We are in the peak period for XB shearing - 21% of the offering on the eastern seaboard was XB this sale as this figure will increase through till Christmas. At these levels growers might ask the question, “Do we hold till the new year or sell now??”

The perfect storm of larger quantity, higher A$ and weakening demand caught most people unaware. A drier October that allowed shearing to catch up and wool receivals to ramp up has quantities ballooning to seasonal highs, taking the urgency out of buying patterns as exporters can become a bit more choosey with their purchases. Global stock markets have got the jitters as the result of next week’s US election will be closer than was expected only last week, this influencing exchange rates and market directions. A big lift in key bulk commodity prices saw the A$ climb to 77 cents and perhaps closer to 80 cents before Christmas depending on the election outcome.

Testing data released for October shows 4% less wool tested year-to-date than last year even though offerings are still ahead of last season by 19,000 bales (3.3%). This figure should fall as the late harvest will be in full swing soon putting shearing on the back burner to reduce quantities in Sydney but, with 51,000 bales up next week, market might be tough.     

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 4 November 2016

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

16-Nov-16

1370

1370

21

14-Dec-16

1370

1370

 

Main Buyers (This Week) 

1

Techwool

6314

2

Chinatex

4289

3

Fox & Lillie

3905

4

Lempriere (Aust)

3096

5

Michell Aust

2933

6

Aust. Merino Exp

2559

7

PJ Morris

2489

8

G Schneider

1530

9

Vic Wool Proc.

1522

  

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1303 cents ê 28 cents compared with 28/10/2016

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1348 cents ê 27 cents compared with 28/10/2016

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7659 é 0.0029  compared with 28/10/2016

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