WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 6^th November, 2015

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

BACK ON THE ROLLER COASTER!

The widespread rain across the region has some growers jumping for joy as the best single fall in up to three years was recorded in areas around Bourke, Brewarrina and Walgett but as the author was driving back to Dubbo today from Brewarrina he could see many farmers in between would be wincing with canola windrowed and wheat still standing.

Otherwise a great change and western district wool growers jumping for joy.

Back to the wool market … Early talk this week was for a softer tone as many traders were still scratching their heads about why the market jumped on average 80 cents over the past two weeks. The push came largely from two larger traders and the others only followed through fear and curiosity. Wednesday’s market for us, selling reasonably early, wasn’t as bad as we feared as we saw a good clearance and some previously passed in lots making considerably more than when they were offered back in July (when the EMI was higher). What was also interesting was that the higher VM lines which are starting to appear weren’t neglected although the market was showing signs of easing. Over the two days of selling though, middle micron fleece wools did ease both days and it was the longer high mid break types that felt the worst of it. Better spec types in the 65-90 mm range didn’t fair too badly, especially if they were also non mulesed. Low VM skirtings actually got dearer as the week progressed whilst most other skirting types maintained levels. Cardings gave up a bit of ground but who’s caring about that at these levels? All these types are in uncharted territory and it seems this trend will continue. Consequently there are none held back and demand will continue from all reports.

It is of some concern after being at several shearings recently that the good winter in many areas is now converting into higher VM on fleece and oddments. One would expect that as the ratio of higher burr content increases one would anticipate discounts for such to increase. As yet this hasn’t been seen and wasn’t evident this week but we would imagine it to be just around the corner.

The latest test data from AWTA would have many exporters concerned as, at the end of October, the YTD volumes have slipped 7.5% against last year and the forecast offerings for the next three weeks are about 8,000 bales a week lower than what was offered last year. So it’s pretty clear that the recent push was a supply concern by a couple of larger traders but this may have not necessarily flushed orders out for others, hence the retreat this week.

Next Monday the 9^th, Macwool and Macrural are holding an information afternoon from 4pm at Willamurra, Brewarrina (about 80ks south east of Bre), followed by refreshments and a BBQ. More importantly, there are six presentations to fill in the afternoon from internal parasites, external parasites, animal production, sheep handling equipment and an update on the wool market and the stock market, all from highly credentialed presenters. Please feel free to come along for the afternoon & evening.

Next week we sell on Thursday with a quick rebound unlikely but supply unlikely to let the market move much lower. One thing is certain, better spec types that sit in the “comfort” zone will fare better if the market is still unsure of direction.

Main Buyers (This Week)