Weekly Market Reports


28 October 2016

Friday, October 28, 2016

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 28th October, 2016

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S17/16

This Week

M17/16

Last Sale

S16/16

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1669

1652n

1661

+8

1463

+206

18

1641

1637

1650

-9

1447

+194

19

1573

1562

1572

+1

1342

+231

20

1468

1455

1466

+2

1283

+185

21

1415n

1403

1414

+1

1273

+142

22

1388n

1387n

1395n

-7

1256n

+132

26

-

1084n

1103n

-19 (M)

1004n (M)

+80

28

735

739

746

-11

848

-113

30

594

594n

609

-15

804

-210

MC

1128n

1109n

1099n

+29

1072

+56

CONSOLIDATION DESPITE LARGER OFFERINGS

Consolidation was the key word this week as the wool market was unable to move one cent, staying at 1331, a 16 month high. The slight downward adjustment in the exchange rate saw the market in US$ terms retreat by 7 cents to 1016. The rally on the opening day was negated somewhat by a cheaper tone on Thursday to leave most indicators unchanged. 18/18.5s and 22s suffered the biggest losses (9 and 7 cents) while all others were either side of last sale’s levels except 17s which gained 10 cents. Again, the lots that had the “right specs” came under fierce bidding to be up to 50 cents better than the indicators with “spinners” style and better still commanding premiums of 200 cents.

Skirtings continued on their merry way as price increases from 10 to 30 cents were common for <19 micron up to 5% VM with the odd superior type adding 50 cents to their values as a few buyers  had to buy to finish off outstanding forward positions. Crossbreds took the hardest hit of any sector as all microns (25 to 32) gave up another 10 to 20 cents. We are hearing that for 27 and broader these levels are at an attractive price for manufactures and speculators alike suggesting that we could be at the bottom of the price cycle for these microns. Cardings again went forward as buying pressure seemed to ramp up even more than in previous sales. The perfect storm of low supply and increased demand from China saw price levels for all types in this sector go ahead by 20 to 50 cents. A line of LKS made 1198cents clean (702 greasy) while STN fetched 1178 (654 cents greasy) - great money for these types.

Concern over elevated offerings - a 10,000 bale increase week-to-week as this sale was the first sale in 6 weeks that the national catalogue was over 40,000 and the second largest this season didn’t seem to faze buyers. The re-emergence of the biggest Chinese indent buyer last week kept going this sale, almost unbeatable on some types as they secured 5,500 bales (25% of the fleece sector). Most other exporters looked to just buy what was absolutely needed for covering, not willing to take them on and push the market any higher than necessary.

Next week’s volumes have ballooned to 49,000 bales - a 10%, 5000 bale increase in a week - this partly due to the dryer weather over the past month or so. Our experts tell us current market trends in place will continue with quantities to fall back to low-mid 40,000s after next week. For what its worth in the Cup, No. 6 Exospheric, each-way of course!!!

 

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 28 October 2016

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

9-Nov-16

1410

1420

19

11-Jan-17

1530

1532

21

22-Mar-17

1385

1385

 

Main Buyers (This Week) 

1

Techwool

6934

2

Chinatex

5602

3

Fox & Lillie

4379

4

Aust. Merino Exp

2929

5

Lempriere (Aust)

2907

6

Tianyu Wool

2459

7

PJ Morris

2452

8

Michell Aust

1481

9

Vic Wool Proc.

1292

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1331 cents ó 0 cents compared with 21/10/2016

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1375 cents é 3 cents compared with 21/10/2016

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7630 ê 0.0045  compared with 21/10/2016

21 October 2016

Friday, October 21, 2016

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 21st October, 2016

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S16/16

This Week

M16/16

Last Sale

S15/16

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1661

1643

1658

+3

1419

+242

18

1650

1622

1642

+8

1401

+249

19

1572

1569

1561

+11

1286

+286

20

1466

1451

1454

+12

1229

+237

21

1414

1413

1402

+12

1216

+198

22

1395n

1382

1374n

+21

1207n

+188

26

1065n

1103n

1076n

-11

1013n

+52

28

746

753

756

-10

826

-80

30

609

610n

613

-4

781

-172

MC

1099n

1092

1076

+23

1060

+39

MARKET CLOSES IN ON YEARLY HIGHS!

The wool market kept going on its positive way to extend rises to an 8 day (4 week) stretch, to have the EMI now at 1331, outdoing the Sale 1 peak of 1320. A quick look back at market peaks has us in rarefied air at this level. There has only been 2 sales (early June 2015) when the EMI has been higher and from then until July this year only 1 week in August, 2015, above 1300 cents. Since July the EMI has been above 1300 cents for 9 sales setting somewhat of a new platform. Indicators <19.5 are at highs not seen for years while 20 and broader are at levels not far off their highs earlier in the season.  The medium types, >20 micron, led the charge this week albeit at a slower pace than last sale, adding 10 to 20 cents. Superfine growers may have been a little disappointed at the outcome as <19 could only manage 5 to 10 cent gains; oddly enough 30 to 40 cent rises for lower types but, if lots had the right specs, premiums were 20 to 60 cents to the good even out to 19 micron and over 2% VM with “spinners” style lots 150/200 above the indicator.

Skirtings weren’t to be denied as the designated superfine sale offered cracking lots for exporters. Fine micron types, <18 and below 5%VM, were keenly sought after most posting 30/40 cent gains with some selected lots +50 to 80 cents as all other types looked 10 to 20 cents dearer. Tight supplies of cardings and LMS also found favour with buyers as LKS jumped 25 to 50 cents with CRS and STN 15 to 25 cents better with washing LMS extreme. All 3 centres’ MCIs are closing in on the 1100 cent mark to be at this season’s peak. Crossbreds continue to buck the rising trend of the merino sector suffering from the exchange rate and over-supply of >30 micron types, 25s and 32 micron remained unchanged while 26 to 30s lost 5 to 10 cents.

Despite the major shift in exchange rates all buyers were keen to secure wool to reinforce an increase in demand. The 28 cent rise in $US terms to 1021 was its biggest rise for some time. The rising $ did impact on some European orders for some types but the re-emergence of one Chinese indent buyer after a few sales on the sidelines pushed the medium microns up. The next 2 sales have offerings averaging 45,000 - the past 2 dry weeks allowing receivals to catch up but should not hinder the market’s consolidation as plenty of sales were negotiated last night as the AU$ comes off its 7 month highs of 77.85 to 76.25 this morning. One ram sale to note; “Grogansworth” at Yass sold 90 rams to a top of $5250 to average $1720, most ram sales in this area now wound up.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 21 October 2016

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

9-Nov-16

1410

1418

21

7-Dec-16

1400

1400

19

22-Mar-17

1520

1520

 

Main Buyers (This Week) 

1

Techwool

4507

2

Fox & Lillie

3494

3

Aust. Merino Exp

3091

4

Tianyu Wool

2761

5

PJ Morris

2721

6

Lempriere (Aust)

2067

7

Chinatex

1710

8

United Wool

788

9

Michell Aust

769

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1331 cents é 13 cents compared with 14/10/2016

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1372 cents é 13 cents compared with 14/10/2016

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7675 é 0.0143  compared with 7/10/2016

14 October 2016

Friday, October 14, 2016

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 14th October, 2016

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S15/16

This Week

M15/16

Last Sale

S14/16

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1658

1628

1615

+43

1442n

+216

18

1642

1615

1602

+40

1429n

+213

19

1561

1552

1534

+27

1314n

+247

20

1454

1436

1411

+43

1248n

+206

21

1402

1407

1391

+11

1245n

+157

22

1374n

1376

1359n

+15

1230n

+144

26

1076n

1109n

1088n (M)

-21 (M)

1059n (M)

+50

28

756

756

771n

-15

854

-98

30

613

611n

603n

+10

809

-196

MC

1076

1067n

1066n

+10

1073n

+3

MARKET RAMPS UP AGAIN!

The wool market kept on its upward trajectory this week adding 18 cents to 1318, the largest weekly increase since the opening sale of the season which was the highest point of the season to date with Sale 9, 1320 cents. Finer microns led the charge as 20s and finer rose by 25 to 45 cents as medium types >21 reversed their falling trend to gain 10 to 15 cents pushing 21s above 1400 cents. Lots with the right specs again came under renewed pressure as did lots with a low cvh result of <45, commonly making 50 cents better than similar types with higher cvh readings. In $US terms the gain was 5 cents to 993 as the currency spent most of the week in the mid 75 cent range after a few weeks in the 76s.

Skirtings followed suit as the finer low VM types (typical of this time of the year) came under, at times, extreme pressure as <18 and under 5% VM lifted by 30 /40 cents  to + 50 for the odd lot as all other types sold to sellers’ favour. Cardings continued their recovery with the 3 centres adding 10 to 15 cents to their local MCIs as all types were quoted 5 to 10 cents dearer - now within sight of seasonal peaks in Sale1. Crossbreds couldn’t go with the merino sector as all types bar the 30 micron indicator (+ 10 cents) lost more ground, giving up 5 to 20 cents. Oversupply surely not the issue as XBs haven’t hit their peak offerings, only 11.5% of this week’s catalogue. Wet weather still impacting on shearing and wool receivals but, as fine weather prevails, plenty of catch-up is happening.

Good news for fine-wool growers?? The recovery and gap to the medium microns is well and truly taking shape. 18.5 and finer are 110 to 130 cents higher than end of June. Medium types look to have settled with the gap to finer microns in sync with what most “experts” would like. 19 to 21s have a gap of 160 cents, 20 to 18 micron is 190 cents but 18.5 to 16.5 is only 50 cents - this tightness a worry for the super-fine growers. The 21 micron indicator has spent 9 sales above 1400 cents since July - it’s high of 1492 in Sale 1 and 6 weeks above 1450, just 6% of the last 5 years better than this.

European demand, led by Italy, looked to be the catalyst for the lift in prices as global demand is on the up as some orders were “buy at best” on Thursday. Testing and auction figures are still ahead of last season but low greasy stocks with low global production and a recovering retail sector auger well for sustained and improving prices predicted.

One ram sale to report on at Armatree “Wyuna” sold 40 rams for a top of $5000 to average $1720. Market should be solid to dearer with 36,000 bales on offer next week.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 14 October 2016

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

23-Nov-16

1410

1410

19

12-Apr-17

1500

1500

19

10-May-2017

1505

1505

 

Main Buyers (This Week) 

1

Techwool

4507

2

Fox & Lillie

3494

3

Aust. Merino Exp

3091

4

Tianyu Wool

2761

5

PJ Morris

2721

6

Lempriere (Aust)

2067

7

Chinatex

1710

8

United Wool

788

9

Michell Aust

769

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1318 cents é 18 cents compared with 7/10/2016

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1359 cents é 18 cents compared with 7/10/2016

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7532 ê 0.0068  compared with 7/10/2016

7 October 2016

Friday, October 07, 2016

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 7th October, 2016

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S14/16

This Week

M14/16

Last Sale

S13/16

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1615

1598

1613

+2

1452

+163

18

1602

1586

1596

+6

1424

+178

19

1534

1522

1527

+7

1337

+197

20

1411

1412

1405

+6

1268

+143

21

1391

1377

1393

-2

1259

+132

22

1359n

1358n

1364n

-5

1253n

+106

26

-

1130n

1149n (M)

-19 (M)

1099n (M)

+131

28

771n

772

770

+1

887

-116

30

603n

603n

603

0

854

-251

MC

1066n

1052n

1063n

+3

1095

-29

FOOTBALL GODS FINALLY DELIVER!!

 

The market did post a gain for the second sale in a row, the AWEX EMI rising by 10 cents to 1300, with most of the good work being done on the opening day. In US$ terms the indicator reversed last sale’s lifts, dropping 5 cents to 988, as the exchange rate fell by a full cent week to week. The market followed the pattern of previous sales as finer types edged higher and medium/broad microns were just there. All the movements occurred on the opening day with a consolidation of prices to end the sale. 18 micron and finer (and 20s) were up to 5 cents better - 18.5 to 19.5coming under the most buyer pressure to finish 10 to 20 cents higher and 21 and broader in buyers’ favour. Lots with the right specs again outperformed their indicators by up to 50 cents as some lots with over 2.5% VM were bought as FNF types.

Skirtings also ramped up their gains as buyers focused on <17 micron up to 3% VM pushing these types 30 cents higher as the 5% VM lots added 20 cents to their previous values. One clip from Mudgee saw BKN make 1001 cents and BLS from the same grower sell for 910 cents - great money that lifts clip averages.  Cardings had another steady sale (the MCI up by 3 cents) as most types sold to sellers’ favour with STN lots up by 15 cents. Interesting to see the MCIs in Melbourne and Fremantle posting 10 cent gains as all 3 centres are now within 14 cents of each other. Crossbreds struggled to go in any direction broader than 28 micron to remain unchanged as <26 micron lost 10 to 20 cents.

The EMI now sits only 20 cents below this season’s peak of 1320 that was set at the end of August. Persistent rain and flooding is still impacting on receivals and delaying shearings by up to 2/3 weeks. This week’s catalogue of 37,000 bales was the second smallest for the season to date as forecasts are not anticipating a national catalogue of 40,000+ bales any time soon unless the market gets extremely dear dragging out Sale 99 wool onto the market. Year on year we are still 23,000 bales up on last season and if we get a run of dry weather wool receivals will pick up before harvest commences in November keeping this figure ahead of last season for the foreseeable future.

Ram sales continue on and averages are up by $150 to an amazing $1100 on last year (back page of “The Land”) and top prices for studs are smashing previous records. Cassilis Park had a full clearance this week for a top price of $2500 to average $1205. Macquarie Dohnes held their postponed sale due to floods to gain a top price of $8000 for an average of $1810 clearing 95%. Talk is the market to follow the pattern of the past few weeks.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 7 October 2016

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

26-Oct-16

1400

1400

19

11-Jan-17

1500

1500

21

8-Mar-2017

1385

1385

 

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

5017

2

Fox & Lillie

3750

3

Lempriere (Aust)

3397

4

PJ Morris

2801

5

Aust. Merino Exp

2705

6

Tianyu Wool

2097

7

Chinatex

1779

8

Modiano

1668

9

Michell Aust

757

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1300 cents é 10 cents compared with 30/09/2016

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1341 cents é 8 cents compared with 30/09/2016

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7600 ê 0.0098  compared with 30/09/2016