Weekly Market Reports


30 January 2017

Monday, January 30, 2017

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 27th January, 2017

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S30/16

This Week

M30/16

Last Sale

S29/16

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2004

1971

2016

-12

1569

+435

18

1907

1875

1931

-24

1550

+357

19

1735

1721

1761

-26

1464

+271

20

1537

1540

1583

-46

1409

+128

21

1432

1432

1478

-46

1403

+29

22

1378

1368

1426

-48

1387

-9

26

919

917

930

-11

991

-72

28

661

661

665

-4

842

-181

30

554

533

575

-21

773

-219

MC

1160

1158

1165

-5

1149

+11

 

Looks like The dust has settled.

 

It was another week of two halves, but this time the two days each had a different tone about them. Not surprisingly, the first day of selling was met with buyer resistance as the dollar edged higher and the offering consisted of more broader merino types carrying higher VM. The Northern Indicator fell 20 cents on Tuesday with the majority of the pain felt coarser than 20 microns. On Wednesday the market held firm and even strengthened towards the end of selling indicating the “correction” was over for the time being. Interestingly though, the broader end continued to ease with 22 microns quoted back another 20 cents on the second day.

The weekly change column shows a clear direction for the market which has been quite marked since the resumption of sales three weeks ago. What the market reports don’t show are the discounts and quotes for wool carrying high levels of VM e.g. fleece over 4%. About one third of our merino fleece offering this week was carrying over 4%, and up to 11%. In the three weeks since sales resumed the discounts for these types has nearly doubled as processors grapple with what to do with them. Conversely, the skirtings off these same clips which are carrying from 15-25% haven’t changed much and are making relatively good money in clean terms. We expect this trend to continue over the next few months as most clips will edge higher in micron and wool cut.

Merino cardings have maintained values reasonably well as small volumes in this sector keep buyers on their toes, crossbred oddments on the other hand have been struggling for some time and much of the passed lots we have had during the last three weeks have been these types.

For fine wool, the future looks very bright as supply will tighten over the coming months. One thing to consider as autumn approaches will be seed and shive. Any seedy edges would be best removed as discounts on these types will definitely increase as we have seen with clover burr.

Next week it is expected that the firming trend seen on Wednesday will continue and the offering of 42,500 bales is lower than any of the previous three weeks with Macwool first up on Thursday.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 20 January 2017

Micron

Date

Low

High

19

26-Apr-17

1670

1670

21

15-Mar-17

1430

1445

21

08-Feb-17

1450

1450

 

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Fox & Lillie

4253

2

Techwool

4071

3

Tianyu

3258

4

Lempriere (Aust)

3071

5

Aust Merino

3013

6

Chinatex

2814

7

P.J.Morris

2569

8

Michell

2566

9

Kathaytex

1705

 

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1412 cents - 22 cents compared with 19/01//2017

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1487 cents - 19 cents compared with 19/01/2017

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7543 é 0.0021  compared with 19/01/2017

20 January 2017

Friday, January 20, 2017

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 20th January, 2017

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S29/16

This Week

M29/16

Last Sale

S28/16

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2016

1970

1943

+73

1554

+462

18

1931

1874

1861

+70

1531

+400

19

1761

1743

1733

+28

1451

+310

20

1583

1575

1587

-4

1391

+192

21

1478

1473

1495

-17

1384

+94

22

1426n

 

1444n

-18

1369n

+57

26

930

933

941n

-11

978

-48

28

665

664

662

+3

834

-169

30

575

551

579

-4

778

-203

MC

1165n

1171

1164

+1

1140

+25

TWO MARKETS IN ONE!

A vastly different market greeted growers this sale when compared to last week’s auction. When looking at the AWEX weekly report, a rise of 12 cents for the EMI to 1434 (a new record since AWEX took on market reporting way back in 1993) looks to be good but it was a market going in two different directions.

Again, it was the finer microns leading the way with <18.5 microns 55 to 85 cents higher despite a 5 to 25 cent fall on the final auction day. The 19 to 19.5s lifted by 10 to 30 cents but that’s where the good news ended as 20s and broader gave up 5 to 20 cents from last weeks  high.  The ever-increasing volume of higher VM took its toll as these fleece types (above 4% VM-19 micron and broader) were 50 to 100 cents cheaper than last week.

Skirtings looked to be the best performing sector of all. Buyers focused on the sub 18 microns, best style <5% VM pushing these up by 20 cents for 18s to 70/110 cents for 17 and finer. One particular clip from Orange averaged $1885/bale for skirtings and cardings (including dags) incredible money!! Cardings also held their nerve as finer than 18 micron across all types were quoted up to 10 cents dearer while broader lots looked fully firm. To highlight this, a burry clip from Tilpa saw its locks make 699 whilst its top fleece price was only 50 cents higher! This example of LKS/CRS being 2nd top price in burry clips will not be too uncommon.

Crossbreds had a mixed sale as a final day recovery saw 25 and 28 micron in the sellers’ favour as all other microns lost 5 to 40 cents with some carding and carbo types (above 15% VM) virtually unwanted as the pain could drag on in this sector for a while

Whilst the headlines in The Land herald record wool prices, and recent gains are certainly welcome, general prices are not in record territory. Whilst we have to go back a long way, fine wool prices have certainly been a lot higher several times over the last 30 years. What we do see happening as the seasonal conditions from last winter onwards convert to greasy wool, a gradual increase in micron and much more vegetable matter in fresh shorn wool. As yet the bulk of the VM has been trefoil but seed and shive will really test the strength of the market. The two halves we saw this week coincided with the increase in burry broader merino types. Put simply, fine and free should continue unabated whilst broad and burry may have hit some resistance. Discounts for the higher VM lines (up around 8-10%) opened out to close to 200 cents clean this week. None of these types are included in the market report micron indices.  So whilst they can crow about a record indicator level, they are not reporting a fair chunk of the wool sold!  Next week just over 47,000 bales down from 56,000 bales should help. We sell Tuesday with 800 bales.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 20 January 2017

Micron

Date

Low

High

19

26-Apr-17

1670

1670

21

15-Mar-17

1430

1445

21

08-Feb-17

1450

1450

 

Main Buyers (This Week) 

1

Techwool

7307

2

Fox & Lillie

5393

3

Chinatex (Aust)

5255

4

Lempriere (Aust)

4703

5

Michell Aust

3038

6

P.J Morris Wool

2910

7

Aust. Merino Exp

2462

8

Modiano

2246

9

Tianyu

2166

      

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1434 cents é 12 cents compared with 13/01//2017

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1506 cents é 16 cents compared with 13/01/2017

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7522 é 0.0058  compared with 13/01/2017

13 January 2017

Friday, January 13, 2017

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 13th January, 2017

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S28/16

This Week

M28/16

Last Sale

S24/16

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1943

1899n

1788

+155

1554

+389

18

1861

1839

1732

+129

1531

+330

19

1733

1712

1624

+109

1451

+282

20

1587

1576

1496

+91

1391

+196

21

1495

1479

1415

+80

1384

+111

22

1444n

1436n

1381n

+63

1369n

+75

26

941n

939n

939

+2

978

-37

28

662

663

658

+4

834

-172

30

579

568

598

-19

778

-199

MC

1164

1163

1132n

+32

1140

+24

A LATE CHRISTMAS PRESENT!

The market exploded into action at this week’s resumption from a well earned 3 week Christmas recess.  Even as far back as the Friday before Christmas, the opening week of the recess, business had been brisk (to say the least) with plenty of wool being booked up and far more enquiry than local traders can remember in a sale recess for quite some time.  Concerns of a drop off in supply and increasing demand coupled with the $A falling below 72 cents and the 3 week recess, forced exporters to start the year off with buying vigour not seen for a long time. Talk of the market opening up to 50 cents dearer was spot on in Melbourne on Tuesday, the gains in the order of 35 to 75 cents. This momentum continued on in earnest on Wednesday and Thursday. By week’s end <18 micron saw climbs of 130 to 165 cents. 21 to 18.5s benefitted by 80 to 110 cents while 22s and broader up by 50-60 cents. The EMI posted a 67 cent jump to 1422 and a 56 cent lift in $US terms to 1056. Just 34 bales of fleece were passed-in in Sydney, clearing 99.4%.

Skirtings were also caught up in the price hike of their fleece counterparts. Finer lots <19 micron containing <5% VM were quoted 80 to 120 cents higher with the medium types with over 5%VM adding 60-70 cents to their pre Christmas values with 9 lots of “BKN” making  1050 to 1246 cents. Cardings were also caught up in the big price rises with all types in this sector 30-40 cents to the good. The 3 carding indicators range from 1163 to 1171, now into record territory.  We had “CRT” make over 1000 cents and “LKS” from the same clip 828 cents. The Crossbred sector was stagnant, 25 to 28 and 32 micron in sellers’ favour with 30 micron down by 20 cents with most commentary on this sector predicting more pain to come before any sort of recovery at least 6-12 months away.

A great sale to be in if you’re offering Merino wool but still not so good for Crossbred growers. Bidding at times was frantic and at times “buy at best” was the only option buyers looked to have up their sleeve. The EMI, at 1422, is at its highest level since June 2011 - five and a half years ago and now only 3 cents shy of that peak. Good news for fine-wool growers as the recovery for finer, <19 micron continues as fine, long wool types are back in vogue. The gap continues to widen between fine and broad microns - 238 cents from 21 to 19s and a 274 cent gap from 20s to 18 micron.  55,000 bales are on offer next week but keen demand should see the trade absorb this quantity without too much trouble. We sell late in Thursday with 1465 bales on offer.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 13 January 2017

Micron

Date

Low

High

Micron

Date

Low

High

19

8-Mar-17

1635

1635

21

14-Jun-17

1419

1420

21

22-Mar-17

1425

1425

21

8-Nov-17

1350

1350

21

10-May-17

1435

1440

19

14-Mar-18

1550

1550

 

Main Buyers (This Week) 

1

Techwool

8712

2

Fox & Lillie

5415

3

Aust. Merino Exp

3699

4

Chinatex (Aust)

3229

5

Michell Aust

2604

6

Lempriere (Aust)

2470

7

Modiano

2091

8

Tianyu

2065

9

Kathaytex Aust

1819

  

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1422 cents é 67 cents compared with 16/12/2016

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1490 cents é 78 cents compared with 16/12/2016

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7464 é 0.0042  compared with 16/12/2016