Weekly Market Reports


28 April 2017

Friday, April 28, 2017

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 28th April, 2017

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison


AWEX INDEX

This Week

S43/16

This Week

M43/16

Last Sale

S41/16

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney (Wk44)

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2324

2287n

2317

+7

1523

+801

18

2178

2131

2173

+5

1482

+696

19

1897

1931

1895

+2

1431

+466

20

1591

1581

1608

-17

1391

+200

21

1473

1483

1507

-34

1367

+106

22

1396n

1393n

1405n

-9

1335n

+61

26

1043

1039n

1041

+2

1021n

+22

28

738

740

735

+3

772n

-34

30

579

590

584n

-5

669n

-90

MC

1165

1183n

1159

+6

1013

+162


GROWERS SURVIVE THE BIG OFFERING

The wool market resumed in earnest this week as the predicted “monster” national offering forecast last Monday was down from 58,000 to 55,000 bales. Still, this was enough for buyers to adopt a cautious approach to the sale. Prices waned in the opening session only to recover some of the lost ground on the final day. Losses were restricted to the medium microns - 19.5 to 21s retreated by 15 to 35 cents while broader types lost 10 cents. Finer than 19 micron was in sellers’ favour as the odd lot with good specs came under closer scrutiny to be quoted up to 50 cents higher.

Skirtings mirrored the fleece room as losses of 20/30 cents for all types and descriptions were the order of the day and only the odd lot that suited specific orders looked dearer in the final session. Exporters were commenting on the increase in volume of colour and cot in skirtings and the rise in the discounts for lots with these faults in them. The carding market enjoyed some renewed competition as all types in this sector gained about 10 to 15 cents across the board. Crossbreds also finished with their noses in front for the week. Again most types in sellers’ favour as quantities reduce in volume.

The initial big forecast offering for this week coupled with the exchange rate climbing back above 75.5 cents last week was enough to have buyers adopt a wait and see approach as to where levels would be set in the opening hour of the 1st session. The release of weaker CPI figures on Wednesday (noon) saw the $A fall to below 75 cents which helped the market in Fremantle firm at the end of the day. The tone improved on the 2nd day in all 3 centres to see the EMI fall by just 11 cents to 1501. The other factor in growers’ favour is the diminishing quantities on offer. The next 3 sales will not be over 40,000/week keeping buyers under pressure from a lack of supply that will stretch through May and June.

Futures trading didn’t reflect the dip in prices as lock-in levels remain at 1400 cents or better out to October. May and June are right at the physical level (1470/80) indicating a very solid market in the short term. As we move through the Autumn, factors influencing the market direction won’t change. Supply, demand, exchange rates and quality of the offering will always play a part in price movements. History has told us that at some stage around this time of year there are always a few sales when the selection is below par (due to a dry late Summer/early Autumn) and the market suffers but with the higher volume of VM around this season the drop-off in quality may not be as pronounced as in past years. Time will tell! Next week’s offering will be about 40,000 bales. We open proceedings on Thursday - market should be rock solid to dearer.


Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 28 April 2017


Date

Low

High

21

13-Sep-17

1390

1400

21

11-Oct-17

1400

1400


Main Buyers (This Week)


1

Techwool

6476

2

Fox & Lillie

6329

3

Tianyu

4319

4

Aust Merino Exp

4062

5

Lempriere Aust.

2969

6

PJ Morris

2511

7

Chinatex

2207

8

Michell Aust.

1804

9

Modiano

949


Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1501 cents ê 11 cents compared with 14/04/2017

 Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1597 cents ê 11 cents compared with 14/04/2017

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7484 ê 0.0013
compared with 14/04/2017

13 April 17

Thursday, April 13, 2017

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 14th April, 2017

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

 

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S41/16

This Week

M41/16

Last Sale

S40/16

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2317

2287

2267

+50

1509

+808

18

2173

2138

2103

+70

1465

+708

19

1895

1933

1798

+97

1411

+484

20

1608

1600

1486

+122

1375

+233

21

1507

1508

1375

+132

1361

+146

22

1405n

1410

1303n

+102

1340n

+65

26

1041

1043

1008n

+33

1014n

+27

28

735

736

730n

+5

791n

-56

30

584n

590

575n

+9

681n

-97

MC

1159

1184n

1176

-17

1074

+85


GROWERS AND BUYERS LEVEL PEGGING. HAPPY EASTER!

The inkling we got last Thursday that the market may have bottomed out and was in recovery mode, was spot on. Futures trading suggested a dearer market to the tune of 20/30 cents. This was exactly the case and more as the market built momentum as the sale progressed. Two days of solid rises saw the AWEX EMI finish at 1512 cents, a leap of 53 cents for the week, and when converted into $US terms saw a 33 cent jump to 1134 aided by the fall in the exchange rate to below 75 cents. Medium types -19 to 22s- led the charge lifting by 100 to 135 cents to close within reach of their peaks of 4 weeks ago. Sub 19 microns were a bit more subdued than previous sales as <17.5 gained 45/50 cents while 18 to 18.5 were quoted 70 to 80 cents better to have 17 and finer equal to or a touch higher and 17.5 to 19 micron still 30 to 60 cents from those March peaks.

Skirtings took till the final day of selling to add to their previous weeks quotes. By the finish of the sale 18 micron and finer posted 10 to 20 cent gains with the odd “cracker” up to 50 cents higher  while the coarser types, 19 and broader, with heavier VM (>8%) leapt by 30 to 50 cents. Crossbreds also followed the lead of the skirting’s as a quiet opening day led to renewed buyer activity in the final session to see all microns add 5 to 30 cents. The only sector to suffer losses was the cardings, the MCI back by 17 cents to 1159 as all types looked about 20 cents cheaper.

We need to look no further than the past 3 sales to see how sentiment can change so quickly, 2 sales of a market almost in free-fall to a complete reversal in the space of a week. The market fell 87 cents over a 2 week period only to stage a 53 cent rebound. Every-one was confidant of the lift in prices was on the cards, but no-one predicted the extent of the recovery and how quick it happened. 3 to 4 buyers (un-named) drove the price lift led by the largest Chinese indent buyer. The erratic shift in prices is due to 2 major influences, local buyers and exporters know exactly the sentiment of their major clients and transfer demand –or lack of it-instantly into the sale rooms. Also affecting the situation is the hand-to-mouth method of purchasing from the Chinese is the preferred way to acquire wool. This has local exporters exposing themselves to less risk selling promptly so manufacturers avoid the pitfalls of buying too far into the future.  After 14 frantic sales we take a week’s breather to get set for the run to June. Sales recommence on Wednesday 26th April with a national catalogue of 50,000+ bales, we will on that day with 1400 bales. 


                                                            Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 7 April 2017

                                                                      Micron

Date

Low

High

19

7-Jun-17

1800

1800

19

9-Aug-17

1725

1725

19

25-Oct-17

1700

1700

 

Main Buyers (This Week)

 

1

Techwool

6584

2

Fox & Lillie

4101

3

PJ Morris

2215

4

Lempriere Aust.

2194

5

Kathaytex (Vic)

1003

6

Modiano

883

7

Tianyu

791

8

Vic Wool Proc.

720

9

Aust Merino Exp.

647

 

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1512 cents é 53 cents compared with 06/04//2017

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1608 cents é 59 cents compared with 06/04/2017

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.750 ê 0.0005  compared with 06/04/2017

 

 

7 April 2017

Friday, April 07, 2017

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 7th April, 2017

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison


AWEX INDEX

This Week

S40/16

This Week

M40/16

Last Sale

S39/16

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2267

2230

2290

-23

1548

+719

18

2103

2073

2153

-50

1506

+597

19

1798

1819

1873

-75

1463

+335

20

1486

1502

1535

-49

1428

+58

21

1375

1377

1414

-39

1410

-35

22

1303n

1321

1328n

-25

1395n

-92

26

1008n

1013

1005

+3

1014

-6

28

730n

722

740

-10

820

-90

30

575n

589

575

0

706

-131

MC

1176

1182n

1223n

-47

1089

+87


BUYERS ON TOP BUT GROWERS FIGHTING BACK!

Buyers were again under no pressure to secure wool as the opening day of sales was a continuation of last week’s carnage. Losses were big and across the board ranging from 30 cents to 100 for all micron ranges resulting in 25% of all fleece not selling this despite the $A retreating by a full cent from last Friday. Thursday saw some sort of recovery as all indicators were in sellers’ favour to 40 cents better. This equated to the AWEX EMI peeling off by 43 cents to 1459, an 87 cent loss over the past fortnight. The drop was similar in $US terms, 50 cents back to 1101 (83 cents all up for the 2 weeks). Once again inferior types bore the brunt of the losses as discounts for VM levels from 4 to 7% looked the same. On the other hand, wools with the right specs still commanded good premiums. One 18.6 lot from Coonabarabran (pain relief) looked 170 cents higher than the indicator while a few non- mulesed lots from Yeoval and Wellington were 40 to 190 cents to the good when compared to their indicators.


Skirtings continued on their path to cheaper levels over both days unable to stage a comeback like the fleece sector. Only the “cracking types” were immune from losing ground with these actually dearer while other finer lots <5% VM were 20/30 cents off while the burrier broader types gave up 60/80 cents. Cardings also suffered losses throughout the course of the sale as all types in this sector fell by 20 to 50 cents. All 3 centres’ MCIs are now below the 1200 cent mark (1199 to 1176). Despite this fall we had a line of LKS from Coolah make 836c/kg while this grower’s carding length LMS 17 micron with 7%VM averaged 1280c - still great money for these types. Crossbreds looked to be the best performing sector as losses were restricted to 28 and 30 micron (10 cents down) while all others up to 10 cents better.


Buyers certainly exacted revenge over the past 4 sale days but there always comes a time when circumstances turn and sentiment changes. Factors can vary from exchange rate movements enticing business to be written or the market falls to a more acceptable level to allow buyers to re-enter the market or an impending recess or the forecast of limited quantities to come. Whatever this week’s reason, it was certainly welcome as it looked as though 8 sales of consecutive rises would be wiped out in a flash!! Next week has sales back at the Easter Show; we have a catalogue of 1540 bales late on the final day, Wednesday, with a stable to better market to finish this series of sales before the one week Easter recess.


Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 7 April 2017


Date

Low

High

19

7-Jun-17

1800

1800

19

9-Aug-17

1725

1725

19

25-Oct-17

1700

1700


Main Buyers (This Week)


1

Techwool

667

2

Tianyu

4352

3

Fox & Lillie

3365

4

PJ Morris

3042

5

Aust Merino Exp

2292

6

Chinatex

2007

7

Michell Aust.

1758

8

Kathaytex (Vic)

1545

9

Kathaytex Aust.

709



Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1459 cents ê 43 cents compared with 31/03/2017

 

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1549 cents ê 38 centscompared with 31/03/2017

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.07544 ê 0.0117
compared with 31/03/2017