Weekly Market Reports


26 October 2018

Friday, October 26, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 26th October, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S17/18

This Week

M17/18

Last Sale

S16/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2582

2566

2743

-161

2377

+205

18

2397

2382

2530

-133

2201

+196

19

2258

2241

2330

-72

1920

+338

20

2175

2158

2262

-87

1668

+507

21

2153

2163

2223

-70

1560

+593

22

-

2165

-

-38 (M)

1491n (M)

+674 (M)

26

-

-

1301n

-

1014

-

28

795

776

-

-70 (M)

707

+88

30

671n

700n

701n

-30

515

+156

MC

1143

1156n

1299

-156

1233n

-90

ALL TYPES COP A CANING!

Buyer sentiment changed from bad to worse this sale as losses exploded to, in many cases, triple figures with the EMI almost falling a triple figure amount! The AWEX EMI collapsed by 96 cents to 1874, its largest weekly fall for 15 years with the opening day’s 72 cent reduction also the biggest daily fall since 2003. From the original national roster 38,700 bales 7% was withdrawn and 24% was passed-in (highest since February 2014) to have just 26,400 bales sold. The finer end of the market bore the brunt of the collapse as < 18.5 lost 110 to 165 cents with the 19s and broader losing 40 to 90 cents as no type or micron was immune to the big falls.

The news was no better in Room 2 as all sectors suffered. Skirtings took a massive hit as all types, regardless of length, micron or VM, gave up 130 to 200 cents. Cardings also felt the full force of buyer resistance as the 3 centres averaged falls of 138 cents as all types in this sector fell 100 to 200 cents as the MCI is now below last year’s level. As was the case last series, Crossbreds were the least affected as losses ranged from 10 cents for the broader microns to 70 cents for 28s and finer.

No-one can or would even try to predict a market movement like the one we’ve witnessed, be it up 125 cents like Sale 7 or this series, a fall of 96 cents. Reasons??: the FRX, no it fell by half a cent; the quality of the offering or quantity, unlikely; the fact that higher prices have been in vogue for some time and manufacturers are struggling to pass on these higher prices to retailers is  highly likely. Once the pull-back started after Sale 7 we had 5 weeks of stable prices then 3 series of relative calm before last week’s fall. The EMI has lost 242 cents since mid August but is still 300 cents (19%) higher than the same sale 12 months ago with the increases in all merino microns 200 to 650 cents to the good.

Most ram sales have finished in this area now with the focus moving to the Southern part of the state. On the whole most studs have reported good clearance rates and higher averages than in past years despite some clients not needing rams due to the dire season and not risking joining’s and large ewe and lamb losses. One sale of note was Grogansworth at Bowning near Yass selling 85% of the offering to top at $6,500 with an average of  2,155. Only 1 week left to vote for Woolpoll 2018 if you’re eligible - just 6200 growers have voted so far. Hopefully the dearer fleece prices in Fremantle yesterday (+5 to 15) will be enough to change saleroom sentiment and stop the rot!!

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 26 October, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

28-Nov-18

2150

2150

21

17-Apr-19

2050

2050

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Tianyu

2701

2

Seatech Ind.

2391

3

Techwool

2329

4

Fox & Lillie

1939

5

Kathaytex

1507

6

Endeavour Wool

1126

7

G Schneider

942

8

Aust. Merino

891

9

Michell Aust.

767

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1874 cents ê 96 cents compared with 19/10/2018

 

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1914 cents ê 107 cents compared with 19/10/2018

 

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7080 é 0.0053 compared with 19/10/2018

19 October 2018

Friday, October 19, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 19th October, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX 

INDEX

This Week

S16/18

This Week

M16/18

Last Sale

S15/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2743   

2700  

2857  

-114  

2338  

+405  

18

2530   

2490  

2593  

-63  

2161  

+369  

19

2330  

2324  

2381  

-51  

1885  

+445  

20

2262  

2238  

2278  

-16  

1657  

+605  

21

2223   

2208  

2243  

-20  

1553  

+670  

22

-  

2203n  

-  

-59 (M)  

1481 (M)  

+722 (M)  

26

1301n   

1336n  

1331  

-30  

1043  

+258  

28

-   

846  

906n  

-14 (M)  

741 (M)  

+105 (M)  

30

701n   

758  

711n  

-10  

521  

+180  

MC

1299   

1304n  

1382  

-83  

1206  

+93  

FINE WOOL GLUT HINDERS MARKET!

Last sale’s recovery was short lived as the market took a turn for the worst as all sectors fell sharply. The 53 cent fall for the AWEX EMI to 1970 was equal to the losses of 3 weeks ago and just shy of the 62 cent collapse in the opening sale of the season. No type was immune from the negative tone despite the superior quality of the selection on offer with the 3rd designated Super-fine sale of the season held in Sydney. The over-supply of sub 17 microns suffered the largest falls (100 to 150 cents) and even more for lots with poor additional measurement results. 19.5 to 17.5 also fell 50 to 75 cents with the broader microns > 20 giving up 20 cents late in the final session. Growers were caught by the size of the losses as 23% of the national fleece catalogue was passed-in.

Skirtings also took a decent hit with the high concentration of < 17.5 micron taking the brunt of the falls ranging from 40 to 60 cents. Cardings were the worst performing sector as the 3 centres averaged 100 cent losses. High flying LKS collapsed to the tune of 100 to 150 cents with CRT/STN giving up 30 to 40 cents as 25% of the Sydney offering failed to sell. Crossbreds looked to escape the carnage of their merino cousins as losses ranged from 10 to 30 cents.

Despite the national catalogue falling further behind last year’s figures, now 74,300 bales which is 2 selling weeks or 13% the market couldn’t sustain last series mini recovery. The vast majority of the offering is still very much drought affected and, as a result, finer than what most Chinese mills are looking for and not up to the standard that the Europeans require. This sale’s merino fleece selection on the East Coast was a full micron finer than the corresponding sale last year. This is backed up by the latest AWTA figures that, despite testing 11% less wool than last season to date, 70% more wool tested below 16.5, 19% more in the 16.6 to 17.5 range and 9% up 17.6 to 18.5 micron bracket.

European demand does remain strong on the “right types” as does interest from India but once outside their specs the price gap is up to 800 cents from the very best types to the worst. Demand remains strong for 19 microns and broader as the large topmakers and indent buyers from China are still active and could lead to better market conditions reappearing sooner rather than later.

Next week’s offering is just shy of 39,000 bales with a bit less fine wool on offer to hopefully see a settled market. The slight lift in the FRX didn’t seem to be a hindrance this sale but most pundits don’t want to see the A$ go higher. Don’t forget just 2 weeks left to vote for Woolpoll 2018, just 10% of eligible growers have voted so far.

                               Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 19 October, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

12-Dec-18

2185

2185


              Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

3896

2

Seatech Ind.

2946

3

Tianyu

2596

4

Endeavour

2216

5

Fox & Lillie

2078

6

Aust. Merino

1701

7

United Wool

1376

8

Modiano

905

9

Kathaytex

799

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1970cents ê 53 cents compared with 12/10/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2021 cents ê 49 cents compared with 12/10/2018



AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7133 é 0.0063 compared with 12/10/2018

12 October 2018

Friday, October 12, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 12th October, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX

INDEX

This Week 

S15/18 

This Week  

M15/18  

Last Sale  

S14/18 

Sydney Change

Last Year   

Sydney   

  Sydney Yearly  

Change

17

2857   

2775   

2869   

-12   

2301   

+558   

18

2593   

2563   

2583   

+10   

2156   

+437   

19

2381   

2389   

2346   

+35   

1886   

+495   

20

2278   

2278   

2225   

+53   

1681n   

+597   

21

2243   

2263   

2186   

+57   

1589n   

+654   

22

-   

2262   

-   

+96 (M)   

1502 (M)   

+760 (M)   

26

1331   

-   

1351n   

-20   

1053   

+278   

28

906n   

860   

904n   

+2   

753   

+153   

30

711n   

768   

701n   

+10   

526   

+185   

MC

1382   

1410n   

1385   

-3   

1188n   

+194   

MARKET ON THE UPWARD TREND, STORMS STILL PATCHY

The wool market did what everyone was hoping for after last Thursday’s solid finish to that series. Good gains over the 2 days had the AWEX EMI recapture almost a third of its losses from the previous 3 sales, up by 31 cents to sit back over the 2000 cent mark at 2023. The relative stability of the FRX saw the EMI in $US post a 20 cent gain to 1430. The biggest benefactors were the broader microns, > 19 up by 35 to 60 cents as finer microns were a touch cheaper bar the superior types that were quoted 50/60 dearer under renewed competition.

Skirtings also followed the lead from their fleece wool counterparts ascending by 20 to 30 cents with emphasis on < 5% VM. Cardings had a flat sale after LKS gave up 10/20 cents while STN added a similar amount. This halted the steep falls of the past 3 sales (178 cents) after setting a new record in early September. Crossbreds had an up and down series as < 26s lost 20 to 30 cents while broader types added up to 10 cents.

The market certainly benefitted from the lower $A v $US rate on Wednesday as the conversion rate was at its best for almost 3 years. The lift in the market a relief for growers as many thought the correction was in the wind for last sale. Exporters scrambled to cover off inventory as some of the larger top-makers and indent buyers have made the decision to ramp up their purchases to ensure supply for upcoming increased machinery demands. Focus is well and truly on a shortfall in supply and a major concern for all in the processing chain. We are already 64,500 bales (12%) behind last season’s volume offered with this figure to become larger. With this in mind the Aust. Wool Prod. Forecasting Committee will meet on 14th November, 4 weeks earlier than was scheduled to give an updated report on how the numbers will be crunched re forecasted volumes post-Christmas something the Global Textile industry will be keeping a very close eye on.

All growers should have now received information for the Woolpoll 2018 vote. There are only 3 weeks left to vote either by reply paid mail, a toll free number (1800 211 736) or online at www.woolpoll.com.au AWI has been holding a series of info seminars to talk about marketing and research and the vote on the level of wool tax growers can vote on 1 of 5 options. Meetings at Dunedoo and Wellington saw about 30 growers at each - AWI stressed the importance of voting and how the reduced volume of wool sold will affect the amount of tax to be collected thus putting some projects at risk due to less wool tax revenue. Market should be stable with 37,000 bales on offer.        

                                     Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 12 October, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

23-Jan-19

2200

2200

21

10-Apr-19

2165

2165

 

                 Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

3866

2

Tianyu

3183

3

Fox & Lillie

3011

4

Modiano

2172

5

Aust. Merino

1946

6

PJ Morris

1639

7

Michell Aust.

1564

8

Seatech Ind.

1398

9

Lempriere

1072

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2023cents é 31 cents compared with 5/10/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2070 cents é 20 cents compared with 5/10/2018



AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7070 ê 0.0010 compared with 5/10/2018

5 October 2018

Friday, October 05, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 8th October, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison


AWEX INDEX

This Week

S14/18

This Week

M14/18

Last Sale

S13/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year Sydney

Sydney Yearly Change

17

2869

2773

2948

-79

2253

+616

18

2583

2542

2615

-32

2112

+471

19

2346

2346

2358

-12

1844

+502

20

2225

2221

2220

+5

1654

+571

21

2186

2166

2178

+8

1571

+615

22

-

2166

-

-4 (M)

1500n (M)

+666 (M)

26

1351n

1443n

1401n

-50

1069n

+282

28

904n

880

-

-30 (M)

788

+116

30

701n

729

-

-1 (M)

535

+166

MC

1385

1438n

1419

-34

1163n

+222

HIT AND MISS BUT GREAT IF YOU WERE LUCKY!

Some great falls were recorded over the past couple of days. Sadly some areas that needed it the most had little reprieve but around Dubbo up to 65mm fell and north of Brewarrina 50mm, so there’s a few who are smiling today.
The wool market didn’t have a great week offering 39,261 bales with the EMI losing another 21 cents which makes it 100 cents in the last three weeks. Most of the pain was felt at the very fine end with 16.5 losing 100 cents this week. The other sector to record significant losses was the burry types and, as the VM rose, the discounts went in step. The middle micron and low VM types actually fared quite well posting gains particularly on the final day giving some confidence that we may be about to turn the corner. The dollar did plunge yesterday to be almost two cents lower than last week so hopefully this will help arrest the fall. On that, currency movements cannot be blamed on the easing market as the EMI in USD terms over the past three weeks has fallen roughly the same amount.
As we said a few weeks ago two areas of concern are that cardings historically appear unsustainable and have been supply driven for some time and the remainder of the merino market is now in a supply driven phase whereas, up until recently, it was demand driven. The fear of supply will see erratic movements as processors from time to time will scramble to source raw material. All eyes are on the monthly data coming out of AWTA and this week the July-September data was released showing nationally a decline of 11.4% less wool tested and September, in isolation, was a scary 19.3%. NSW for September was down 33% compared to last year!
Just a reminder for those who wish to hear first hand about AWI’s performance and projects, particularly with WoolPoll on there will be a lunchtime event at Dunedoo Showground next Monday at 11am, and a 5pm meeting at the Wellington Soldiers Club. We urge you to make the time to come along, have a listen, ask questions and take some time out. Please call 1800 070 099 to register at no cost.

Next week a smaller offering of 34,500 bales will be offered with hopes pinned on a turnaround in fortunes which would go well with more rain!

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 5/10/2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

28-Nov-18

2200

2200

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Tianyu

4481

2

Techwool

4325

3

Seatech Ind.

3871

4

Fox & Lillie

3337

5

Aust. Merino

3336

6

PJ Morris

1711

7

Endeavour Wool

1393

8

Michell Aust.

1317

9

Kathaytex Aust.

1154

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1992 cents ê 21 cents compared with 28/09/2018

 

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2050 cents ê 24 cents compared with 28/09/2018

  

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

7080 ê 0.0178 compared with 28/09/2018