Weekly Market Reports


28 September 2018

Friday, September 28, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 28th September, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

    AWEX INDEX    

This Week    

S13/18    

This Week    

M13/18    

Last Sale    

S12/18    

Sydney    

Change   

 Last Year   

 Sydney   

    Sydney      

     Yearly   Change      

   17    

2948

2822

2988

-40

2238

+710

   18    

2615

2570

2688

-73

2072

+533

   19    

2358

2349

2429

-71

1791

+567

   20    

2220

2217

2294

-74

1597

+623

   21    

2178

2173

2243

-65

1532n

+646

   22    

-

2170n

-

-52 (M)

1476n (M)

+694 (M)

   26    

1401n

1473n

1433n

-32

1093n

+308

   28    

-

910

944n

-49 (M)

813 (M)

+97 (M)

   30    

-

730

728n

-26 (M)

563 (M)

+167 (M)

   MC    

1419

1487n

1531

-112

1139n

+280

60,000 BALES DOWN BY WEEK 13.... LONG WAY TO GO!

It was another lacklustre week as indicators tumbled across all three centres. Due to AFL fever in Melbourne and public holiday today, the Melbourne series started on Tuesday in isolation and continued the trend of buyer resistance. The EMI has shed 81 cents in the last two weeks with the merino carding indicator losing 144 cents over the fortnight. The dollar was basically unchanged this week so the relatively small offering of just over 32,000 bales could only blame an increasing quantity of “off types” for the decline. Hardest hit were the droughty higher VM types over 4% where buyers were very selective. The carding market seems to have run into some real issues and one cannot but feel that prices over 1500 cents for these types are very hard to sustain. The exporters we have spoken with who have recently returned from China aren’t overly nervous about the price - it’s more fear of supply that is of concern. Yes, the last six month upward shift hasn’t fully been digested and there will be an increase in blending but the Chinese are very enthusiastic about using wool and keeping it foremost in their products. Nearly all mills are operating hand to mouth with no stock and we know there is little in the pipeline here of unsold wool, so the year to date offering statistic of 59,611 less bales offered is a real concern for all.

All woolgrowers should have received their Woolpoll voting packs this week with information about AWI’s activities and future plans. The important issue for all to attend to is voting for the wool levy for the next three years. The wool levy has been 2% since AWI started in 2001 and it is recommended by the Board that this rate continue. Initially the whole levy went towards R & D but, since 2010, AWI re-entered marketing and now spends 60% of it’s income on marketing. There is tangible evidence that this has had a significant impact and certainly helped put the market where it is. Whilst levy income has increased as the price has, downturn in production will severely impact and offset this. I am keen to see the levy remain at 2%.

For those who wish to hear first hand about AWI’s performance and projects there will be a lunchtime event at Dunedoo 11am, Monday, October 8 and a 5pm meeting at Wellington followed by drinks and nibbles the same day. We urge you to make the time to come along and take some time out. Please call 1800 070 099 to register at no cost.

Next week a larger offering of 42,500 bales will be offered with maybe a hint of levelling out late in Fremantle yesterday giving us hope of a firm market next week.

                             Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 28 September, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

28-Nov-18

2165

2165

         

Main Buyers (this week)

1

Seatech Ind.

3112

2

Tianyu

2759

3

Techwool

2510

4

Fox & Lillie

2124

5

New England

1760

6

PJ Morris

1621

7

Aust. Merino

1498

8

G Schneider

1271

9

Kathaytex Aust.

786

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2013cents ê 54 cents compared with 21/09/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2074 cents ê 66 cents compared with 21/09/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7258 up 0.0001 compared with 21/08/2018 

21 September 2018

Friday, September 21, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 21st September, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S12/18

This Week

M12/18

Last Sale

S11/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney

 Yearly Change

            17       

2988

2893

3008 

-20

2228

+760

            18       

   2688   

2633

2708

-20

2072

+616

            19       

2429

2397

2439

-10

1778

+651

            20       

2294

2258

2303

-9

1588

+706

            21       

2243

2229

2274

-31

1540

+703

            22       

 -

2222

-

-31 (M)

1490 (M)

+712 (M)

            26       

1433n

1504n

1493n

-60

1101

+332

            28       

944n

959

975

-31

813

+131

            30       

728n

756n

738n

-10

586

+142

    MC

1531 

1568n

1563

-32

1113n

+418


CURRENCY MOVEMENT DICTATES PRICE
Another busy week in the world of wool: for the 4th sale in a row the AWEX EMI had a minor adjustment, shaving 27 cents (1.3%) to 2067 from the last series. For the past month the range has been from 2094 to this sale’s level. The market fell just 3 cents in $US terms to 1500 cents due to the spike in the FRX. Unlike the last 3 sales < 19 micron were caught up in the falls as losses ranged from 10 to 20 cents for 20s and finer and broader types 20/30 cheaper barring the very best fine types, virtually unchanged from previous levels. 
The skirting market suffered larger losses, finer types < 17 micron fell by 40 to 60 cents while all others gave back 20/30 cents. Cardings retreated from their new record high to see its first losses since early July (a 32 cent fall to 1531) with LKS the main culprit down by 40 to 60 cents while STN/CRT only fell by 10 to 15. Crossbreds also took a hit, losses ranged from 10 cents for broader wools to 60 cents for the finer microns.
If the Nanjing Wool Conference was the stimulus for an immediate dearer market we might have to wait a bit longer to see a lift. The ascendency of the $A looked to be the main driver behind this week’s fall to delay any positive movement for the time being. More news from the conference was the China/US trade war with textiles caught up in about 10% impact of the $400 billion tariff total ($4 billion) but thankfully the impact is on industrial Geo textiles and carpet exports to the USA. Of course price was a hot topic for the Chinese but not complaining about these new levels, more trying to adapt to the new prices and survive with better management strategies and improving production techniques to allay any further costs as they are fully aware of the impact of the drought on the quality of the wool arriving at their mills and the effect on the shrinking volume.
The woollen sector is under pressure as the double-faced fabric sector is suffering from high finished stock levels, excess capacity, retailers wanting more complicated products and subdued demand and the “fake fur” segment is flat at best. The positive sector which has led the price revival over the past 2 years is the sport and active-wear market that has expanded rapidly and will continue to do so especially from demand from the local Chinese consumer. The Chinese manufacturers are concentrating on this growing local demand rather than higher margin export markets where more volume can be sold to the “young hip” Chinese consumer that wants to support locally made products.   
Another good week as ram sales continue around the state.  Gullengamble from Yeoval sold 121 rams for a top price of $6500 to average $2336. Parkdale from Dubbo had a 100% clearance with a top price of $2800 to average $1120. Coddington Uardry Polls from Wellington cleared all 100 rams to average $2106 with a top price of $9000 and the famous Merryville Stud at Boorowa cleared 140 rams with a top price of $6000 twice to average $1986.
Congratulations must go to Steven Mudford from Gilgandra who broke the world record for a single stand shearing of wethers at the Parkdale Stud. He shore 373 for the 8 hours, averaging 93/run, that works out at 1 sheep every one and half minutes!! Well done.  Market direction next week will depend on the FRX movements so the experts say.  

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Seatech

4099 

2

Techwool

2654

3

Fox & Lillie

2188

4

Kathaytex Aust.

2092

5

New England

1417

6

Tianyu Wool

1186

7

Aust. Merino

1046

8

Lempriere

994

9

PJ Morris

992

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2067 cents é 27 cents compared with 14/09/2018

 

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2140 cents é 00 cents compared with 14/09/2018

 

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7257 ê 0.0079 compared with 14/09/2018


14 September 2018

Friday, September 14, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 14th September, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX

INDEX

This Week 

S11/18 

This Week

M11/18

Last Sale

S10/18

Sydney

Change 

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly 

Change

17

3008  

2944

2989

+19    

2207

+801

18

2708 

2652

2669

+39    

2078

+630

19 

2439 

2438

2443

-4    

1775

+664

20 

2303 

2306

2324

-21   

1595

+708

21 

2274 

2254

2285

-11

1547

+727

22 

2253

-6 (M)

1463 (M)

+790 (M)

26 

1493n 

1526n

1486n

+7

1107

+386

28 

975 

968

968

+7

816

+159

30 

738n 

743n

728n

+10

601

+137 

MC 

1563 

1575n

1563

0

1094

+469

MILLION DOLLAR RAM SALE!

Plenty happening in the world of wool this week as the market stagnated, a record breaking ram sale and the annual Nanjing wool conference. The market followed last week’s pattern - a dearer opening session ending with a softer tone on the final day. The AWEX EMI advanced by just 6 cents to 2094 (37% higher than a year ago) helped along by the sub 19 micron indicators gaining 10 to 45 cents as the broader edge, 20 to 24 slipped by 10/20. The FRX remained stable around the 72 cent mark after falling to below 71 cents early in the week, its lowest point for 2 years. This enabled the EMI in $US to also add 6 cents to its value, up to 1503 as just 68 bales of FLC were passed-in in Sydney.

All types of skirtings made subtle gains, 10 to 20 cents depending on the level of VM and style. There was very little change in the carding market, the only movement being fine micron LKS back by 10 to cents. Crossbreds also had a sedate sale to have most types appreciate by 5/10 cents.

On property ram sales started with a bang. The first cab off the rank was long time wool client Kerin Poll from Yeoval with a massive 400 ram catalogue. 80+ registered bidders competed on every ram to achieve a top price of $9,000 to average $3026 with a 100% clearance. The sale grossed $1.21m to set a new national record for a single on-property ram sale and certainly set an incredible tone for the remainder of the ram selling season. Some of their new buyers from Victoria, Tasmania and Southern NSW were composite breeders aiming to join theses new rams to their ewes to put a bit more value into their wool clips. Well done to all at Kerin Poll, a great result. Another Macwool client, the famous Haddon Rig stud at Warren, held their sale on Thursday offering 150 horned and 60 poll rams with the top price going to a poll ram at $14,000. In an ever-increasing trend where studs are breeding both types the average for the polls was higher then their horned counterparts, $2887 to $2148 with a 91% clearance  and overall average of $2357. Again, great results for both studs considering the dire season.

It was a situation of “wait and see” this sale as the Nanjing Wool Conference was held and the outcomes will become more apparent in the next few sales. Hard to gauge from bleary-eyed delegates how the mood in China is as most are still in-bound or recovering from a solid 3 days of business and pleasure!!. What everyone is acutely aware of is the shortfall of wool when compared to last season, a dramatic 48,000 bales (13%) or 1 selling week of wool!!  Also on the radar at the conference is the recently introduced environmental protection legislation in China and the cost for mills to implement these new laws, the biggest drama being the effects on scouring effluent and waste water and sludge disposal as water treatment devices are adding significant costs to the scouring process. The USA and China trade war was also discussed at length, more on this next week. 35,000 bales on offer next week, no real change expected.

                        Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 14 September, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

31-Oct-18

2210

2210



Main Buyers (this week)

1

Tianyu

3946

2

Techwool

3703

3

Seatech Ind.

3318

4

Fox & Lillie

2518

5

Aust. Merino

2462

6

Kathaytex

2288

7

Lempriere

2110

8

Michell Aust.

1887

9

New England

1057

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2094cents é 6 cents compared with 7/09/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2162 cents é 9 cents compared with 7/09/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7178 é 0.0010 compared with 7/09/2018

7 September 2018

Friday, September 07, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 7th September, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week  

S10/18  

 This Week  

M10/18 

Last Sale   

S09/18  

Sydney Change

Last Year

Sydney 

Sydney Yearly

Change

17 

2989    

2903    

2968    

+21    

2273    

+716    

18 

2669    

2616    

2651    

+18    

2139    

+530    

19 

2443    

2414    

2418    

+25    

1839    

+604    

20 

2324    

2296    

2311    

+13    

1646    

+678    

21 

2285    

2259    

2286    

-1    

1597    

+688    

22  

-    

2259    

-    

-23 (M)    

1509n (M)    

+750 (M)    

26  

1486n    

1521n    

1489    

-3    

1141    

+345    

28  

968    

974    

965    

+3    

852    

+116    

30  

728n    

739     

731n    

-3    

636    

+92    

MC 

1563    

1583n    

1560    

+3    

1089n    

+474    

HOLDING PATTERN AWAITING NEW DIRECTION

As each week passes the picture becomes clearer about the effect drought is having on supply. Whilst production in our area has been impacted gradually over the last 12 months, a much wider area is now feeling the brunt of lower numbers and reduced cut. Added to this is the higher market over the past season that has flushed out nearly all held wool either on farm or in store. For the first seven selling weeks of this season there has been 39,000 bales less wool offered compared to last season. That is roughly the same amount of wool that was offered this week, so already we have dropped a full week’s offering!
The market opened on Wednesday full of promise and looked to be continuing the previous week’s upward trend but on Thursday the dollar rebounded slightly and by the end of the day the wool market had retreated roughly the same amount and the end result was little change. The crossbred offering was the smallest in three years but it had little effect on price movements. Generally, the finer microns continued to hold promise but the increasing amount of drought affected dusty wools, even in the Southern market, are having an impact.
The Nanjing Wool Market conference will be held in just over a week’s time and, as this is now a focal gathering not just for Chinese buyers but globally, there is a bit of “wait and see” till after the conference. Some pundits feel that supply pressure is building and the conference will no doubt focus on this and then we expect a clearer direction.
Over the coming weeks all wool levy payers will receive information about the upcoming Wool Poll. Every three years wool growers get the opportunity to vote on the level of wool levy they are prepared to pay. There will be 5 options ranging from 0% to 3%. Currently it is 2% and has been since AWI commenced nearly 20 years ago. The levies are proportioned out to 40% research and development and 60% marketing and promotion. Marketing was only reintroduced in 2010 and there is good evidence to suggest that this component has reaped good rewards for levy payers. Up until this year wool production has been relatively stable (around 340-350 mkg) and demand has increased to a point where the EMI has risen 783 cents (60%) in two years. The most recent production forecast has it falling to 322 mkg. Many of us believe it will be lower than that. There will be public discussion no doubt that AWI can survive on a lower levy. I am concerned that production will not bottom out for some time yet and now is not the time to prune heavily. We will have more on this as the weeks progress.

Finally, IWTO is running a promotion on our fibres great properties through an Instagram promotion of your farm videos and photos of sheep and wool.  Please see the attachment with our weekly report and join in to promote our great fibre worldwide. A smaller offering of 35,000 bales will commence Wednesday.


   

NCWSBA Weekly Newsletter Supplements (Sept 2018) NCWSBA Weekly Newsletter Supplements (Sept 2018) (400 KB)


                                
Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 7 September, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

23-Jan-19

2150

2150

 

Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

5721

2

Seatech Ind.

3944

3

Kathaytex Aust.

2960

4

Lempriere

2286

5

Aust. Merino

2104

6

Fox & Lillie

1685

7

Michell Aust.

1209

8

Tianyu

1181

9

PJ Morris Wool

862

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2088cents ê 2 cents compared with 31/8/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2153 cents é 8 cents compared with 31/8/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7168 ê 0.0084 compared with 31/8/2018