Weekly Market Reports


11th Oct 2019

Friday, October 11, 2019

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 10th October, 2019

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S15/19

This Week

M15/19

Last Sale

S14/19

Sydney Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1902

1901

1872

+30

2869

-967

18

1867

1859

1840

+28

2583

-716

19

1788

1788

1739

+49

2346

-558

20

1762

1739

1699

+63

2225

-463

21

1753

1731

1684

+69

2186

-433

26

1170n

1211n

1150n

+20

1351n

-181

28

940n

963

908n

+32

904n

+36

30

-

719n

-

-

701n

-

MC

991n

1021n

1005

-14

1385

-394

MARKET RECOVERS BUT FOR HOW LONG??

The wool market continued on its volatile and erratic path this sale, but growers benefitted from renewed competition as the AWEX EMI added 32 cents to sit at 1543. As has been the case for some time now, the big swings in price (both ways) have thought to be over-done, rising by too much and falling far quicker and further than most thought. This, again was the case last week as the EMI collapsed by 98 cents and to everybody’s relief clawed back 1/3rd of those losses this sale, the level the market finished at was enough to extract fresh business from our major customers. Fleece microns <18.5 rose by 25/30 cents while 19s and broader gained 50 to 70 cents. Skirting’s added 20 to 40 cents for all types while XB’s were quoted 20 to 30 cents higher. The only sector to fall was cardings, losses ranging from 20 to 40 cents.

Since wool sales resumed in early August, the EMI has moved a total of 763 cents up and down, an average of 76 cents over those 10 weeks or 49% of the EMI (1543). Even the veteran’s of the trade think these large price fluctuations are unprecedented and make trading a very difficult proposition that could continue for some time. Uneasy global economic conditions  that could result in some countries slipping into recession, the ongoing trade tensions and Brexit are still at the forefront of most Western governments which is leading to economic slowdown as consumer confidence weakens and  leads to lower demand from wool processing destinations despite shrinking volumes of wool from Australia. The supply and demand balance is in question as reports of building up of early stage processing stocks in China are countered by the ever eroding supply of wool from NSW & QLD. In the short term demand could swing from good to bad as processors try to work out what price level is fair value through the pipeline and at the retail level.

A few more ram sales to report on; Cassilis Park had a 100% clearance for a top of $3,800 (2) to average $1,530,  Bundilla at Young sold all but 2 of their 239 rams for a top of $10,000 to average $3,270 and Blyth at Adelong sold 77% to achieve a top of $6,500 to average $1,635. We have Canola hay for sale ex Lockhart @ $260/tonne (plus GST) if anyone is interested, contact Ros Press at Macdonald Rural on 0427 704 457.                                                            

                                    Southern Aurora Fwd Prices as at 10th October, 2019

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

6-11-19

1750

1750

 

Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

4011

2

Fox & Lillie

3482

3

Endeavour Wool

2635

4

PJ Morris

2449

5

Australian Merino

2177

6

United Wool

1410

 

 

 

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1543cents é32 cents compared with 10/10/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1567cents é 29 cents compared with 10/10/2019

 

 

 

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6748 é 0.0030 compared with 10/10/2019

4 October 2019

Friday, October 04, 2019

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 4th October, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S14/19

This Week

M14/19

Last Sale

S13/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1872

1898n

2003

-131

2869

-997

18

1840

1852n

1965

-125

2583

-743

19

1739

1727n

1871

-132

2346

-607

20

1699

1689n

1843

-144

2225

-526

21 1684n 1687n 1828n -144 2186 -502
26 1150n 1188n 1240n -90 1351n -201

28

908n

936

988n

-80

904n

+4

30

-

738n

814n (M)

-76 (M)

729 (M)

+9 (M)

MC

1005

1040

993n

+12

1385

-380

DEMAND IS KING BUT VOLATILITY RULES!!

The market hit a brick wall this sale as demand almost completely dried up. The cheaper market in Fremantle last Thursday was the absolute indicator of things to come this sale as the volatility in the market continued as last series’ gains were completely wiped out when the AWEX EMI fell by 98 cents to 1511. All FLC indicators recorded triple figure losses, 120 to 145 cents. Most skirtings dropped by 80 to 110 cents bar the better style low VM types which gave up 60/80 cents. Crossbreds also suffered heavy losses - 80 to 100 cents while cardings were the only shining light to be firm to sellers’ favour. We were fortunate enough to open the sale on Wednesday and escaped most of the carnage with some NM lots 25 to 100 cents better than their indicators.

This degree of volatility has not been seen in the market according to wool buyers with 40+ years of experience. Over the past 9 weeks, since sales resumed, the EMI has lost 389 cents, regained 244 and this sale fell 98 cents. Volatility is running above 40% for 19 & 21 micron and in the last 10 years the EMI has moved either direction by more than 50 cents in a single day 19 times, with 9 since January and 7 in the past 9 sales. On two occasions has the EMI had a daily shift more than 100 cents, both in the last 6 weeks.

The shrinking volume is again front and centre with the latest release of testing figures from AWTA. September is back by 13.7% compared to last year and for the first quarter of the season the decline is 14% (55,000 bales) from last season. The total bales offered is worse, 81,500 (19.6%) less than last year so far - alarming figures.

More  Ram sales results: Allendale at Wellington cleared 78% with a top price of $3,500 to average $1320, other results from  Wellington: Mumblebone sold all but 2 rams from 200 offered to average $2905 to top out at $12,000 (2); and Boxleigh Park topped at $3,200 for a $1,490 average; Langdene at Dunedoo sold 87% to average $3,030 with a top price of $9,000; while Dunbogan 85% sold with a top of $2,600 to average $1265; at Peak Hill Westray/Genanegie cleared all 164 on offer to average $2,565 topping out at $16,000; and Cora Lynn averaged $1,645  with a top of $3,800 to clear 95%.


         Southern Aurora Fwd Prices as at 4th October, 2019       

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

16-Oct-19

1680

1680

Free knitted woollen jumpers for poddy lambs. Call into our office in Dubbo or Macdonald Rural at Brewarrina and take as many as you need. Many colours and styles to choose from!

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

3416

2

PJ Morris

2082

3

Fox & Lillie

2266

4

Aust. Merino

2082

5

Endeavour Wool

1862

6

Michell Wool

1233

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1511 cents ê 98 cents compared with 04/10/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1538 cents ê 97 cents compared with 04/10/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6718 ê 0.0039 compared with 04/10/2019