Weekly Market Reports


8 November 2019

Friday, November 08, 2019

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 8th November, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S19/19

This Week

M19/19

Last Sale

S18/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1978

1967

1992

-14

2495

-517

18

1875

1858

1928

-53

2318

-443

19

1776

1788

1848

-72

2109

-333

20

1725

1728

1800

-75

2050

-325

21 1713n 1726 1782 (M) -56 (M) 2043 -330
26 1204n 1205 1233n -29 1143n +61

28

919n

910

959n

-40

745n

+174

30

693n

728n

733n

-40

636n

+57

MC

1055n

1064n

1086n

-31

1020

+35

THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES!

The market kept going on its rollercoaster ride this sale as predictions of a cheaper market after the opening day last week rang true as the quick price ascent was never going to be maintained. The previous 3 sales before last week’s big rise had seen the market average a 29 cent shift either way which, to all participants in the trade (most importantly processors), was quite acceptable and business was done without too much angst for grower or processor. Last sale’s rapid rise and the FRX upward shift put paid to this week’s market from the opening lot as the cheaper market in Fremantle last Thursday was a precursor.

The saving grace for sub 18.5 micron was based purely on the superior style types on offer for this week`s designated superfine sale with only the very odd lot attracting solid premiums with most falling by up to 50 cents. 19 micron and broader took the brunt of the losses, most microns giving back 70 to 80 cents more than last week’s gains. Skirtings weren’t as adversely affected as low VM types lost 10/15 while poorer, burrier lots fell by 20/30 cents. After last week’s massive lifts cardings losses were minimal, all types in this sector retracting by 10 to 20 cents bar carbo LKS, back by 30\50 cents. Crossbreds also came under demand pressure to contract by 30 to 60 cents - not quite all of last sale’s gains.

So the rollercoaster continues. The market cannot seem to crack the 1600 cent barrier – has reached 1594 cents last sale and back to 1555 this sale, a loss of 39 cents. The AWEX EMI has been stuck in the 1500 cent range for some time now and buyers are unable to let it go to 1600 and beyond. Is this level comfortable for processors? At the moment it does look as though1600 cents is the upper limit they can operate at and sell to downstream users where everyone is making money. The erratic rises and falls hurt all pipeline participants as we have seen since August. Up or down the staircase is far better for all to operate in rather than the elevator speed that the market has been on in some weeks since sales resumed in August.

As has been the case for some time Fremantle’s Thursday market dictates what will happen next week and the solid market yesterday (up by 10 cents) gives hope that the market should be solid to sellers’ favour next week if recent history is any sort of guide. Just a reminder that all who are eligible to vote in the AWI elections must send their postal voting papers by next Friday to arrive by the cutoff date. If voting via email votes must be submitted by Wednesday 20th November. Directors urge everyone to vote.

Southern Aurora Fwd Prices              

Micron

Date

Low

21

November 19

170

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

4304

2

Endeavour Wool

2462

3

Tianyu Wool

2412

4

Aust. Merino

2231

5

Fox & Lillie

2216

6

PJ Morris

1729

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1555 cents ê 39 cents compared with 01/11/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1583 cents ê 43 cents compared with 01/11/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6865 ê 0.0063  compared with 01/11/2019

1 November 2019

Friday, November 01, 2019

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 1st November, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S18/19

This Week

M18/19

Last Sale

S17/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1992

1971

1922

+70

2555

-563

18

1928

1912

1865

+63

2377

-449

19

1848

1844

1789

+59

2238

-390

20

1800

1784

1748

+52

2153

-353

21 - 1782 1743n (M) +39 (M) 2126 (M) -344 (M)
26 1233n 1238 1160n +73 1189n +44

28

959n

959

889n

+70

778

+181

30

733n

755

675n

+58

661n

+72

MC

1086n

1076n

987n

+99

1045

+41


NUMBERS LOOK GOOD BUT VOLATILITY TO CONTINUE!!

The promise of a dearer market late last week was spot on as buyers chased wool from the opening lot. Sydney’s market had to play catch-up after its 1 day sale last week but all centres rose more than expected as all fleece microns gained 50 to 75 cents on the opening day then leveled out on the final day. Skirtings had an excellent sale as broader types jumped 40/50 cents while < 18 micron climbed by 70 to 90 cents. XBs also benefitted from the increase in demand up by 60 to 80 cents while the MCI added 100 cents as all types in this sector skyrocketed by 80 to 110 cents.

While any rise in any commodity is welcome, price volatility is always a concern as the past 12 weeks has demonstrated. This sale’s rise was widely tipped but after the opening day’s rises most talk was “gains went too high too fast” and  the shift in the FRX to well above 69 cents was too much as Fremantle’s market pulled back by 20 cents on Thursday - a certain sign of things to come here next week. The sudden upward shift in the A$ came after the first phase of a trade pact with China and the US could be signed ahead of schedule and the US Federal Bank dropped interest rates to 1.5% which resulted in the US stock market setting a new record high. The widely volatile market has auctions highly reactionary to immediate demand (both positive and negative) as buyers don’t want a heavily exposed open position and execute purchasing promptly without price limitations. The +/- 20 cent movements over the previous month has had both sides of the trade (buyers & sellers) confident in what they were doing but the big shift in prices makes trading difficult.

The end of the month saw the release of testing figures from AWTA. October saw a 4.2% fall compared to last October and the progressive total from July to now is 11% less than the same period last year. The volume of wool offered for the current season is 16% (89,400) less than last season - these figures certainly not to improve any time soon. AWI AGM will be held in 3 weeks and voting is under way for the 3 vacant positions on the board from a field of 8 candidates. All shareholders eligible to vote should have received their voting papers by now (electronically or by mail) and are urged to vote from now. If you cannot attend the AGM you will need to appoint a proxy for the meeting. Don Macdonald will be happy to again carry your proxy in what will be a very important election of 3 new board members. As we mentioned earlier we could see a cheaper market next week.

            Southern Aurora Fwd Prices

Micron

Date

Low

21

November '19

1760

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

5737

2

Fox & Lillie

4214

3

Endeavour Wool

3160

4

PJ Morris

2489

5

Aust. Merino

2245

6

Tianyu Wool

1844

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1594 cents é 49 cents compared with 25/10/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1626 cents é 66 cents compared with 25/10/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6928 é 0.0080 compared with 25/10/2019