Weekly Market Reports


27 September 2019

Friday, September 27, 2019

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 27th September, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S13/19

This Week

M13/19

Last Sale

S12/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2003

1998

1967

+36

2948

-945

18

1965

1955

1902

+63

2615

-650

19

1871

1869

1775

+96

2358

-487

20

1843

1835

1743

+100

2220

-377

21 1828n  1829 1735 (M) -94 (M) 2173 (M) -345 (M)
26 1240n 1233n 1195n +45 1401n -161

28

988n

995

953n

+35

910 (M)

+85 (M)

30

-

814n

791n (M)

+23 (M)

730 (M)

+84 (M)

MC

993n

1046n

934n

+59

1419

-426

IS THIS ANOTHER PEAK??

The Nanjing Wool Conference that was held last weekend proved to be a success as plenty of business was written as all mills sold plenty of quantity to fill large fake fur orders. The market’s stunning rise two sales ago kept going this week as an opening day surge saw 19 micron and broader add 90/100 cents and finer types 35 to 60 cents with some superior types 50 to 200 cents higher. Skirtings also recorded rises beyond 100 cents as the low VM < 2.5% lifted by 100/130 cents while all others were 70 to 110 better. XBs posted gains of 30/50 cents while cardings enjoyed the renewed buyer sentiment as the 3 centres averaged a 64 cent jump as all types rose by 40 to 80 cents. The AWEX EMI rose by 67 cents to 1609, a 244 cent (63%) recovery over the past 3 weeks from the 389 cent fall in August.

Ram sales continue in earnest with good averages and clearance rates. Some more results include: Macquarie Dohne cleared 100% with a top of $6,000 to average $1,880; Gullendah at Baldry also had a top of $6,000 to average $1,970 and cleared 96%; Roseville Park also cleared 100% to average $3185 topping at $12,000; Towalba at Peak Hill sold 95% to average $1,775 with 2 rams selling for $5,000; Coddington Uardry also achieved a top of $5,000 to average $1,980 and clear 94%; Trynow at Goolma averaged $1,330 for a top price of $4,600; Calga Dohnes from Coonamble sold 91% to average $1,455 with a top of $3,600; Bella Lana at Wellington had a top of $4,550 to clear 90% and average $1,950. In the Riverina Poll Boonooke and Wanganella had a top price of $26,000 to average $3,675 and sold all but 1 of the 190 rams offered and Pooginook topped out at $6,500 to average $2,365 for all 237 rams sold.

AWI board elections will be held in November and all shareholders were sent documentation showing their voting entitlements at the AGM. There have been some discrepancies where the numbers of entitlements were wrong. If you have any queries we can email you a report showing the amount of wool tax for the past 3 years.

Most exporters thought this run on the market could last for a few sales but Fremantle’s fall in the market late yesterday (30 to 70 cents) could see the market give up some of this week’s gains.

       Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 27th September, 2019     

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

23-Oct-19

1750

1750

Free knitted woollen jumpers for poddy lambs. Call into our office in Dubbo or Macdonald Rural at Brewarrina and take as many as you need. Many colours and styles to choose from!

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

4686

2

Fox & Lillie

3315

3

Endeavour Wool

2645

4

PJ Morris

2141

5

Aust. Merino

2125

6

United wool

1049

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1609 cents é 67 cents compared with 20/09/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1635 cents é 65 cents compared with 20/09/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6757 ê 0.0033 compared with 20/09/2019

20 September 2019

Friday, September 20, 2019

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 20th September, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S12/19

This Week

M12/19

Last Sale

S11/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1967

1973

1930

+37

2988

-1021

18

1902

1915

1853

+49

2688

-786

19

1775

1809

1755

+20

2429

-654

20

1743

1740

1682

+53

2294

-551

21 1735 1769n -34 (M) 2229 (M) -494 (M)
26 1195n 1191n 1165n +30 1433n -238

28

953n

953

953n

0

944

+9

30

-

791n

813n

-27 (M)

756n (M)

+35

MC

934n

988n

906n

+28

1531

-597

WELL DONE SHARPY – A GREAT ACHIEVEMENT!!

A great milestone was achieved this week as Ian Sharp clocked up 50 years in the wool trade. It was on the 18th September, 1969, that he commenced with Winchombe-Carson as a junior valuer then went to CPS then onto Elders in 1973 till 2011 when he joined Macwool. It is an achievement to be able to work for half a century but to work in the one industry for your whole career and witness how the wool industry has evolved over that time and the life-long friendships that he has forged is testament to the respect and high regard in which he is held in the wool industry. Well done and here’s to many more years in the trade.

On to the market: Things panned out as most people had hoped. After last week’s massive hikes that left Melbourne and Fremantle well ahead of Sydney as they forged higher on the final day of sales (as we only sold on the first day), to have the 3 centres’ prices aligned more closely this week was a good result. With our rise and Melbourne’s fall the EMI added 7 cents to 1542 and most microns rose here by 35 to 60 cents. In the south, < 18 lifted by 10 to 40 while > 18.5 lost 25 to 50 cents. Skirtings kept improving as all types jumped by 50 to 70 cents with cardings to the good by 30 to 40 cents. Crossbreds had a mixed sale as opening day losses were nearly cancelled out by a final day’s rally to have 28s and finer up to 30 dearer and broader types 20/30 cheaper.

We are in the peak season for ram sales with studs holding their sales through to the end of October. A few to report on from the past week include: Haddon Rig at Warren clearing 94% of their draft with a top of $6,500 to average $2410; Gullengamble at Yeoval sold 97% with 2 rams selling for $5,500 with an average of $2245; the newly formed Towonga stud at Peak Hill averaged $1910 with a top price of $4,500 to clear 84% at their opening sale; Parkdale at Dubbo had a top price of $3,500 to average $1,515; Weealla at Gilgandra sold all rams on offer to a top of$3,250 (2) to average $1,350; and Merryville at Boorowa sold 75% with 3 rams topping at $5,000 to average $2,125. Good results given the ongoing drought and the number of ewes to join far less than last year.

The Nanjing Wool Conference is currently being held in Shandong, China. The success or failure of this gathering will determine the immediate price direction of the market but one buyer reported selling 90% of this week’s purchases yesterday so next sale should be rock solid.

          Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 20th September, 2019       

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

18-Dec-19

1620

1620

21

27-May-20

1580

1580

Free knitted woollen jumpers for poddy lambs. Call into our office in Dubbo or Macdonald Rural at Brewarrina and take as many as you need. Many colours and styles to choose from!

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

3952

2

Fox & Lillie

3369

3

Endeavour Wool

2659

4

Aust. Merino

2623

5

PJ Morris

2223

6

Lempriere

2002

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1542 cents é 7 cents compared with 13/09/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1570 cents é 36 cents compared with 13/09/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6790 ê 0.0088 compared with 13/09/2019

13 September 2019

Friday, September 13, 2019

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 13th September, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S11/19

This Week

M11/19

Last Sale

S10/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1930

1969

1842

+88

3008

-1078

18

1853

1874

1783

+70

2708

-855

19

1755

1833

1578

+177

2439

-684

20

1682

1785

1497

+185

2303

-621

21 1645n 1769 1487n +158 2274 -629
26 1165n - 1100n +65 1493n -328

28

953n

961

853n

+100

975

-22

30

813n

818n

703 (M)

+115 (M)

738n

+75

MC

906n

1007n

814n

+92

1563

-657

HISTORIC RISES BUT WHERE TO FROM HERE??

What an incredible week for the market as the recovery was nothing short of spectacular. After last sale’s stable market and signs of a level being found last Thursday, futures trading was pointing to a 30/40 cent lift and by Tuesday night predictions were in the 80 to 100 cent range. Both were wrong! The sale in Sydney was condensed to a one day sale due to lack of quantity with gains of 70 to 90 cents for < 18 micron and the broader types 130 to 185 higher. The AWEX EMI added 170 cents to 1535 - the largest weekly gain on record - with the 130 climb on Wednesday the biggest daily rise of all time. Skirtings added 80 to 100, XBs rose 65 to 100 and cardings put on 50 to 100 cents. Despite this steep rise for all sectors, the pass-in rate was 6.2%

After loosing 389 cents (24.5%) since the resumption of sales over the past 5 weeks the market made a stunning comeback to gain 170 cents (12.2%) in one week to wipe out 44% of the losses.  Buyers were frantic to secure quantity as discounts shrank and premiums for better types rose to extreme levels. As one buyer said, “Exporters stopped selling the market down” as the volume of wool on offer compared to the wool actually sold over the past 5 sales had declined by 40/50% due to the high passed-in rates and withdrawn lots. Another factor was the sudden rush of woolen clothing imported to the US from China before last week’s additional 15% import duty came into effect as US retailers tried to beat the 1st September deadline. For June and July the year-on-year % of wool imports rose by 30%. This major increase in exported clothing may have left some manufacturers short on stock in China and with small offerings to pick from, panic looks to have set in. Also adding to the good news was the softening stance between the US and China over tariffs and agreeing to a resolution may not be just a dream but reality sooner rather than later which can only help consumer confidence north of the equator.

Kerin Poll held their ram sale this week with a total clearance of 450 rams to average $2500 topping out at $10,000. At the feature sale in Adelaide 2 rams were bought by syndicates for $100,000 (poll) and $72,500 (horn). These results augur well for the stud selling season despite the on-going drought and less ewes to join and maybe not as many rams needed for upcoming joinings. After the overdone falls in August and this sale’s correction anything is possible in this current volatile market. Who knows what for next week??

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 13 September, 2019       

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

27-Nov-19

1520

1535

21

22-Jan-20

1600

1600

Free knitted woollen jumpers for poddy lambs. Call into our office in Dubbo or Macdonald Rural at Brewarrina and take as many as you need. Many colours and styles to choose from!

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Fox & Lilliel

3267

2

Techwool

1997

3

Modiano

1334

4

Endeavour Wool

1303

5

PJ Morris

1298

6

Aust. Merino

972

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1535 cents é 170 cents compared with 06/09/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1534 cents é 126 cents compared with 06/09/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6878 é 0.0059 compared with 06/09/2019

6 September 2019

Friday, September 06, 2019

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 6th September, 2019

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S10/19

This Week

M10/19

Last Sale

S09/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

1842

1823

1845

-3

2989

-1147

18

1783

1747

1795

-12

2669

-886

19

1578

1582

1593

-15

2443

-865

20

1497

1481

1515

-18

2324

-837

21 1487n 1477 1499n -12 2285 -798
26 1100n - - - 1486n -386

28

853n

849

843n

+10

968

-115

30

-

703

698n (M)

+5 (M)

739 (M)

-36 (M)

MC

814n

821n

806n

+8

1563

-749

IS THIS THE BOTTOM??

This week’s market started off poorly but rebounded in the final session to give a glimmer of hope that the market may have finally bottomed out. By week’s end the AWEX EMI lost just 10 cents to 1365 with a slight lift in US$ terms (6 cents) to 931. All MPGs fell ranging from 5 to 20 cents with the very odd best style Italian lot fetching 30 to 60 cents higher than their indicators. The renewed buyer interest flowed through to Room 2 as skirtings lifted by 30/50 cents, cardings added 30 to 60 cents and XBs looked up to 10 cents dearer.

Finally the market came off the descending elevator to find the stairs. After a horror August which saw the market shed 379 cents (23.8%), the largest monthly % decline in 28 years, the market recorded its first daily rise since Sale 2 on Thursday to hopefully stop the rot. The EMI is a massive 723 cents (34.6%) lower than a year ago, meaning just 10% was lost in the period from August 2018 till end of July. The “super-cycle” that most analysts talk about is certainly over. This is the 5th such cycle since the market’s big jump in 1988. Reasons for the downturns in the market after theses super-cycles are varied and all not related to the wool market, rather global external factors. If we look at the 4 downturns this century: 2003 to 2005 with the SARS outbreak in China the EMI fell 608 cents (49%) to a low of 632; the GFC period of 2008/09 saw a 328 cent drop to 721 (31%); from 2011 to 2012 a 35% (501 cents) fall to 933 was due to the massive cotton stockpile that China had built up after the GFC; and, of course, this current downturn which hopefully is nearing its end.

Now we are faced with new global challenges that will take time (up to 2 years according to some economic experts) to sort out from Brexit to the US/China trade wars which took a new twist this week. As of Monday the US lifted tariffs by 10% on a vast range of imports from China (worth $300B) from 20% to 30% but for woolen clothing the tariff was raised by 15%. Have prices “overshot” their high and low points?? Many believe so and the fundamentals of supply and demand get lost in the over-correction when the market goes in either direction. Many traders believe the market reached an unsustainable height last year and this current correction has gone too far. Hopefully the market can maintain the level it finished at on Thursday.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 30 August, 2019       

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

16-Oct-19

1500

1500

21

20-Nov-19

1500

1500

Free knitted woollen jumpers for poddy lambs. Call into our office in Dubbo or Macdonald Rural at Brewarrina and take as many as you need. Many colours and styles to choose from!

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

2778

2

Fox & Lillie

2152

3

Endeavour Wool

2118

4

Tianyu Wool

1778

5

G Schneider

1077

6

PJ Morris

1044

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1365 cents ê 10 cents compared with 30/08/2019

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1408 cents é 3 cents compared with 30/08/2019

   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6819 é 0.0090 compared with 30/08/2019