Weekly Market Reports


31 January 2020

Friday, January 31, 2020

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 31st January, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S31/19

This Week

M31/19

Last Sale

S30/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2038

2004

2082

-44

2538

-500

18

1893

1892

1917

-24

2437

-544

19

1795

1791

1809

-14

2304

-509

20

1753

1767

1778

-25

2273

-520

21 1731n 1757 1766 -35 2249n -518
26 1081n 1108n 1111n -30 1343n -262

28

803n

804

838n

-35

1024n

-199

30

-

649

690 (M)

-41 (M)

848 (M)

-199 (M)

MC

1114n

1136n

1145n

-31

1165

-51

WHERE TO NOW? WHO KNOWS??

The wild volatility continued this sale just as the market has done since the New Year’s resumption and indeed a pattern that started last August. Sure there are always outside factors that can influence the market but we seem to be in a perfect storm of new causes that is sending the market on the roller-coaster ride we are on at the moment. The Coronavirus and extension of the Chinese New Year till the 8th February and a liquidity problem due to banks in China on holidays has hindered normal buying patterns as everyone second guesses what the market might do and virtually no-one has been able to make a firm prediction. There will be a definite effect on the global economy as economic growth slows and consumer confidence will worsen before it improves. 

The market opened, as all expected, with heavy losses across all microns as the opening day’s 56 cent loss for the AWEX EMI was the largest daily fall since August. The market staged a recovery in the final session - exactly half the losses (28 cents) clawed back. By week’s end the EMI had lost 28 cents to 1548, 38 cents in US$ terms to 1043. Losses ranged from 45 to 25 cents for all microns bar 19/19.5 that retreated by only 5 to 15 cents. The better style spec types were, in some cases, sold with virtually no discounts but, at the other end of the scale, the average and inferior style types (MF6 & MF7) were up to 200 cents cheaper than the previous sale. Skirtings suffered heavier losses, 70 to 90 cents for 17 micron and finer, 90 to 120 cents for all others and up to 140 cents for poorer style lots. Cardings couldn’t maintain the gains of the 2 previous sales as falls of 20 to 40 cents covered all wool in this sector. Crossbreds also fell out of favour as 26 to 32 micron fell 30 to 40 cents.

Global stock markets reacted quickly to the growing concern of the Coronavirus but did recover most of the losses later in the week. The domestic travel restrictions in China and their extended Lunar New Year celebrations have hampered some mills’ operations that rely on itinerant workers that have gone back to their home provinces and are unable to return to work. Orders were virtually non-existent on the first day but order was restored in the final session as sanity prevailed as FRX against the US$ fell by 1.25 to 1.86% giving manufacturers buying in US$ a cheaper buy rate thus pushing the market higher in the final session. Also helping was the high pass-in rate (37%) on the first day and 13% (5920 bales) withdrawn for the week.

A pleasing aspect was the dominance of the world’s largest top-maker from Europe for Merino types with traders very active and indent buyers from China making their presence felt in the final session. So where to from here is anyone’s guess. To predict a price movement direction would be a brave move but hopefully the recovering market is a sign of things to come as national quantities should be around 40,000 bales per week for the next month.

Southern Aurora Fwd Prices              

Micron

Date

Low

21

March 20

1770

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

3470

2

Fox & Lillie

2442

3

Modiano Aust.

1993

4

Endeavour Wool

1574

5

United Wool

1551

6

Michell Wool

1483


Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1548 cents ê 28 cents compared with 24/01/2020


Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1578 cents ê 39 cents compared with 24/01/2020

   

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6739 ê 0.0124  compared with 24/01/2020

24 January 2020

Friday, January 24, 2020

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 24th January, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S30/19

This Week

M3019

Last Sale

S29/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year (Wk24)

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2082

2073

2122

-40

2538

-456

18

1917

1922

2005

-88

2432

-515

19

1809

1803

1909

-100

2313

-504

20

1778

1776

1878

-100

2277

-499

21 1766 1758 1870n -104 2245n -479
26 1111n 1116 1195n -84 1298n -187

28

838n

835

914n

-76

934n

-96

30

-

690n

711 (M)

-21 (M)

741 (M)

-51 (M)

MC

1145n

1131n

1123n

+22

1186

-41

HIGHER VOLUME STRETCHES MARKET

The market opening felt the pain of the increased volume of bales in the Australian wool market this week. After last Tuesday’s increases between 100 and 120 cents, this week’s offering jumped from earlier predictions of 49350 bales to 59900 bales. With this came discounts from the start as buyers struggled to find the finance for sudden increased volumes of wool.  A three day sale in Melbourne saw them open up, selling on their own, on Tuesday. The softer tone was evident when selling began in the merino sector. The individual Micron Price Guides (MPGs) for 17.0 micron and coarser falling by 14 to 40 cents by day’s end.

As Sydney did not sell last Thursday or Tuesday this week, everything was pointing in one direction for when our market opened Wednesday. Fremantle was in the same boat and both centres were pulled back to match Melbourne’s levels. Freemantle dropped between 9 and 31 cents, not as great a drop as Sydney due to Freemantle selling last Thursday and taking some of the losses then. Sydney, however, dropped between 37 and 110 cents of which 19 micron and broader took the biggest brunt of the losses losing between 98 and 110 cents respectively. These drops, compared to the previous Tuesday’s sale, meant that a lot of wool was pulled out of the market ending in a week where the offering ended up being 52,666 bales of which 15.9% was passed in, continuing at historically higher than normal rates. Thursday seemed to find a consolidated level across all three centres as buyers seemed to be happy with securing as much wool at these levels as they could. By the end of Thursday’s selling period the market seemed to be a bit more positive. All wool types were very firm to 10c dearer with most attention drawn back to the merino fleece sector of 19 micron and broader.

The AWEX Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) lost 33c or 2% this week to move to 1576c clean/kg. The EMI in US Dollars (USD) was lower again as the 0.6% lower exchange rate helped depreciate that indicator by 2.6%. The USD EMI adjusted down to a 1082c US clean/kg close for the week which was a 29 USC loss. Even with these drops the EMI is still 18c clean/kg ahead of the last sale before Christmas - still very good levels. Merino Skirtings had strong support all week ending the week fully firm to 20 cents dearer across all microns. The oddment sector defied the trend of all other sectors. Locks in particular were well sort after pushing prices up by 30 to 40 cents. The crossbred sector took a fair hit this week as well as they seemed to be out of favour with the buyers all together losing between 21 and 84 cents.

Next week sees another 40680 bales go under the hammer. As Monday is a public holiday there will only be two selling days, Wednesday and Thursday. Also China will celebrate their lunar New Year and will pretty much be shut for the week so it will be very interesting to see how our Australian Wool Market performs. Fingers crossed, firm to dearer!

HAPPY AUSTRALIA DAY and safe travels to anyone travelling!

Southern Aurora Fwd Prices              

Micron

Date

Low

21

February 20

1760

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

7358

2

Endeavour Wool

4157

3

Aust. Merino

3324

4

Tianyu Wool

3046

5

Modiano Aust

3026

6

PJ Morris Wool

2619


Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1576 cents ê 33 cents compared with 17/01/2020


Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1617 cents ê 61 cents compared with 17/01/2020

   

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6863 ê 0.0044  compared with 17/01/2020

17 January 2020

Friday, January 17, 2020

 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 17th January, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S29/19

This Week

M2919

Last Sale

S25/19

Sydney

Change

Last Year (Wk24)

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2122

2082

2005

+117

2523

-401

18

2005

1930

1907

+98

2407

-402

19

1909

1838

1818

+91

2304

-395

20

1878

1803

1792

+86

2256

-378

21 1870 1783 1783n +87 2225 -355
26 1195n 1166 1180n +15 1339 -144

28

914n

865

914n

0

941n

-27

30

-

711

729 (M)

-18 (M)

719 (M)

-8 (M)

MC

1123n

1089n

1071n

+52

1202

-79

NEW YEAR BUT SAME RESULT!

As has been the case for a number of years now the market started the new year with a bang. After last week’s 5% rise in the South African market talk on the showfloor was of a similar scenario. The chatter was spot on as all merino microns added 100 to 120 cents on Tuesday on the Eastern Seaboard. On Wednesday, as Fremantle came on line, Sydney was a fraction cheaper (10 cents) Melbourne mixed and after an explosive start Fremantle could only add 30/40 cents to their pre-Christmas values as talk of a correction was common. The big downward price adjustment came on Thursday with Sydney not selling with the other 2 centres as all microns lost 25 to 100 cents. After the wild fluctuations the AWEX EMI did post a 51 cent rise to 1609.

Skirtings also benefitted from the initial jump in the market to have this sector 70/90 cents to the good with cardings ranging from 40 to 70 cents higher. The crossbred sector couldn’t go with their merino counterparts and added just 10 cents to their values. With the market’s jump the EMI is equal to its spring peak in late September (1609) and just the 2nd occasion since August that 1600 cents has been achieved. Even though the market rose there are big price discrepancies between the 3 centres. As Sydney escaped the big closing falls on Thursday we are well ahead of Melbourne’s levels (78 cents on 18s and 19 to 21s, 40 cents for 16.5 to 17.5 and 18.5s.) This could signal more price reductions next sale as growers rushed wool into next week after Tuesdays jump to try and capture the rises pushing the roster to 59,900 bales, a 14% (8,100 bales) increase since Monday. It will be the largest sale since April 2018. This opening sale (52,200 bales) was the largest since the corresponding sale last year. Buyers are somewhat perplexed as to why growers continue to rush wool onto the market after big rises pushing volumes to levels where finances aren’t enough to buy all the wool on offer at competitive levels. If the rises weren’t so large, like before Christmas and late October, we could avoid the situation of big rises leading to large offerings, then buyers virtually running out of money to buy all the available wool and the market losing all the previous gains. Buyers seem to think that volumes over 45,000/sale becomes a bridge too far. That doesn’t augur well for next week and then Chinese New Year the following sale. Some exporters did write some business last night - enough to steady the market next week is anyone’s guess.

Southern Aurora Fwd Prices              

Micron

Date

Low

21

February 20

1760

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

8058

2

Tianyu Wool

3433

3

Aust. Merino

3410

4

Kathaytex

2839

5

Fox & Lillie

2783

6

Michell Wool

2498


Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1609 cents é 51 cents compared with 20/12/2019


Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1678 cents é 79 cents compared with 20/12/2019

   

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.6907 é 0.0062  compared with 20/12/2019