WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 22nd May, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

MARKET REVERTS TO ‘BAD OLD DAYS’!!

Was the one week wonder just that? Looking at the market report from Melbourne on Tuesday one could be forgiven that the falling market was behind us as the 20+ cent rise in >19.5s and cardings was the start of a recovery. On the other side of the continent, however, hopes were dashed as Fremantle’s market fell by 23 cents and, as Sydney joined in on Wednesday, both eastern seaboard centres fell to debunk the myth of a market that had bottomed out. By week’s end the AWEX EMI gave up another 24 cents to 1155 completely wiping out last series’ gains. In US$ terms the descending trend was offset by the rise in the FRX of 1.25% which would’ve contributed to the falling market - just a 7cent decline to 756. Merino fleece indicators fell 45 to 65 cents while skirtings had similar losses of 30 to 50 cents. Cardings bucked the cheaper trend as all types in this sector were quoted 20/40 dearer, the MCI up by 28 cents TO 823 while XBs were in buyers’ favour.

It was a very different IWTO Congress that was held this week. Scheduled to be held in China then rescheduled to Belgium it was moved to a digital platform due to the ongoing travel restrictions. One session of interest was the Market Intelligence session in which several speakers reported. Chris Wilcox from the Nat Council of Wool Selling Brokers spoke of the awful economic conditions and low consumer confidence around the globe and that all sectors of the wool pipeline from early stage processors to garment and interior textile manufacturers had seen a massive drop in  production since the new year and a sharp rise in stock levels except garment making and the recovery in raw wool demand in the near term is very limited. Madam Peng Yanli from the China Wool Textile Association also painted a very grim picture. Production of wool fabric and yarn fell by 25% in the first 3 months of 2020 in China due to domestic and global collapse in demand. This led to the value of their wool textile and garment exports to fall more sharply in the 1^st quarter of the year than during the GFC in 2008. This led to a large number of their mills capacity utilisation fall below 50% but a significant number are returning  to 80% capacity as domestic demand recovers and conditions improve slowly in the textile industry but there are still many challenges ahead as cancelled retail orders offshore and tight restraints on working capital will slow the recovery. A full video of all speakers can be seen on the IWTO’s Facebook page or their YouTube channel at www.youtube.com/user/IWTOCHANNEL/featured.

Drop into our Dubbo office or Macrural at Brewarrina to pick up free woollen jumpers to keep your poddy lambs warm this winter.

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WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 15th May, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

1 WEEK WONDER!!

Growers were buoyed by the positive start to this week’s wool sale as prices on the eastern seaboard made a surprisingly about-face with fleece indicators jumping by 25 to 40 cents as business was written for immediate prompt. By Wednesday the market reverted back to the all too familiar pattern, cheaper in Melbourne and Fremantle. The AWEX EMI still did manage a rise for the week breaking a 7 day run of falls, up by 9 cents to 1179 and an 11 cent gain in US$ terms to 764 as the FRX had a stable week trading around 64.75 cents. Skirtings in Sydney followed the fleece lead to gain 20/40 cents while fine LKS lifted by 20 to 30 cents as all other types in the carding sector were unchanged. Crossbreds remain out of favour as losses of 10 to 20 cents were across the spectrum. The pass-in rate dropped to 9%, the highest clearance rate (91%) since December.

While always welcome, the rise in the market looks to be short-lived. A smattering of business was written and a positive outcome for growers in this sale but global demand has not shifted to the positive. In fact it could even fall lower as the full effects of a global recession are yet to fully impact consumers till the 2^nd half of the year.

Buyers and overseas mills are reporting prices are at very competitive levels but the key component in selling any commodity is demand which is virtually running on empty so shifting unsold stock is nearly impossible. Even though spinners, weavers and retailers are coming back on line globally trying to process and on-sell tops and yarn that is 200 to 400 cents too dear is proving mission impossible and many still have greasy wool on docks still to hit the scour that were bought at prices deemed too high or, in some cases, orders have been cancelled on this wool. Many companies along the pipeline are facing financial pressure with no cash reserves set aside. Some are using this as an excuse to renegotiate expensive contracts or cancel them altogether. A vertical-integrated company in India has been rumoured to have cancelled hundreds of tonnes of greasy wool contracts. Until all this wool makes its way through the pipeline to retailers and demand picks up, prices paid to woolgrowers will continue to fall or, best case scenario, flat-line given quantities don’t exceed current volumes.

The key to consumer demand getting back to pre Covid-19 level will be the easing of lockdown restrictions and how fast people can resume work and start to spend their disposable income again. Measures are in place in many countries to get people back to work and spending money to speed up the economic recovery as soon as possible.        

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 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 8th May, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

IS THE LOW POINT IN SIGHT?

Another poor week for the wool market as the pattern was similar to previous sales with demand almost non-existent as the market recorded more heavy losses across the board. It wasn’t that long ago that buyers were talking of weekly volumes of 35,000 bales being sustainable in the current environment. The absolute lack of demand has meant that, over the past 5 sales, the national catalogue has only averaged 24,000 bales but this has been unsustainable as the market has lost 117 cents, most of that (102 cents) over the last 2 sales. With passed-in lots and growers withdrawing wool the amount of wool cleared to the trade has only been about 20,000 bales/week. The AWEX EMI slumped by another 55 cents to 1170 this week - its lowest point since 2015. The fall in US$ terms was similar - a 48 cent decline to 753, a 10 year low, this despite the FRX falling by a cent to 64.35. Merino fleece types gave up 20 to 65 cents while skirtings fell by 30 to 50 cents across the entire range. Cardings fell by another 20 to 70 cents as the MCI descended by an additional 44 cents to 796 and crossbreds gave up 40 to 50 cents. Surprisingly the passed-in rate fell to 18% down from 25% last sale as more growers seem prepared to meet the market rather than risk a lower price later on.

How low can the market go?? No-one truly knows the answer and opinions are divided. Are we at the bottom? If not, at what level is the low point? And how long will the recovery take for the market to get back to an acceptable level where all participants along the pipeline can make money. Two major buyers we spoke to had varied opinions, from the market perhaps bottoming out sooner rather than later to the market progressively getting cheaper well into our winter months. One buyer thought the only way to help global economies kick start were stimulus packages but this would place all countries in more financial stress - a risk some will not take. The level of consumer confidence in  all major wool consuming countries (US, Europe, Japan and South Korea) has literally fallen off a cliff in April due to the social lockdowns and restrictions that have lead to a collapse in discretionary consumer spending. Only China’s figures showed a very small decline in February before a slight improvement in March, unbelievable!! The world is in a recession and, as to when industry and economies can be running to full capacity and unemployment rates fall as lockdown restrictions ease, then will we see consumers willing to spend their hard earned money again and economic growth rebound to levels we saw pre Covid-19. The wool market absolutely depends on consumer’s ability to spend their excess cash on our product.

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 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 

Week Ending 1st May, 2020

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AT LEAST IT’S RAINED!!

The market suffered further losses this week as sentiment seems to go from bad to worse. The AWEX EMI gave up another 47 cents to 1225 ( a 5 year low) but just 2 cents in US$ terms to 800 as the FRX appreciated to 65.40 cents (up by 2.25 cents - 3.5%) almost the identical amount the market fell by - 3.7%. Unfortunately the losses aren’t attributed to just the FRX movements.  Virtually no sector was immune from the rapidly declining demand causing all fleece microns to fall by 50 to 90 cents as discounts widened for the dustier types but the better types (and some NM lots) sold to solid competition or even dearer rates. Skirtings fell by 20 to 50 cents while cardings retreated by 10 to 30 cents and crossbreds lost 10 to 40 cents depending on micron. 32 micron is at 270c clean, its lowest point for 23 years. This weeks losses caps off 2 disastrous months for the wool market. April saw the EMI fall by 76 cents (4.7%). This was minor compared to March - a collapse of 294 cents, 11.8%. Looking back to earlier in the year the price shifts were minor as January lost just 10 cents while in February the EMI gained 33 cents, certainly an erratic shift.

The fall in the market and the spread of Covid-19 that has whole countries in lockdown has seen retail spending collapse cannot be underestimated. March figures coming out of the USA saw retail spending slump by 8.7% compared to February, manufacturing output was back by 6.3% and industrial production shrunk by 5.4%, the largest fall since WWII. Buyers were adamant that even with restricted demand national catalogues of 35,000/week would be able to be absorbed. The average weekly offering has been 36,000 over the past 8 sales and just 24,000 in April but this has been a bridge too far. Most of the recent falls came in a period when New Zealand and South Africa had suspended wool sales but now both are back online - SA holding a sale via “Zoom” last week and back into the Port Elizabeth sale rooms from now and NZ selling, scouring and shipping wool again. Even though some form of normality is returning to China as shopping centres reopen, large retail outlets are reporting business is 20% below normal throughput before the shutdown as early stage processing in China is continuing but temporary closures for most combing mills are still in force in Europe, Malaysia and South America. Further down the chain a gradual lift in restrictions is giving some middle and end stage processors in Europe a gradual cranking up of machinery. Many astute judges believe the wool market still has some way to fall while others think that we are close to the bottom as the more production comes online, prices will rise in time but not till late 2020 (even into 2021). Talk about an each way bet!! At least it’s rained again!!

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