Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 7 December 2018
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Weekly Market Reports
7 December 2018
30 November 2018
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WEEKLY MARKET REPORT Week Ending 30th November, 2018 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison
MARKET MARKS TIME
After last series’ big lift the market consolidated with no shift in the AWEX EMI to stay at 1860. The Sydney market managed a 2 cent gain while Melbourne lost 2 cents to come to that unchanged figure - a good result considering the FRX went against the A$ by 1%, this reflected in the rise of the EMI in US $ terms by exactly that amount, 13 cents to 1360. On the surface the market was unchanged but there were some very mixed results across the different categories. The fleece sector saw some subtle movements with the final designated super-fine sale of the year helping the sub 18.5 micron types post gains up to 30 cents and for the “Italian/European” types (spinners and better) premiums were in the order of 200/300 cents with some < 16.5 micron types even with very poor strength readings were 30 to 80 cents higher. Broader microns from 19 couldn’t maintain their big increases of last sale and lost 15 to 30 cents - buyers citing last Thursday’s push of 20/40 cents as too much after absorbing Wednesday’s price rises as plenty of business had been done that night after that day’s good gains.
Skirtings also benefitted from the superior selection on offer as these finer, low VM types lifted by 10 to 20 cents with some up to 50 cents to the good. Cardings also were quoted dearer helped along by the better offering as fine LKS < 17.5 micron looked 20 to 50 cents dearer with all other types of cardings solid. The Crossbred sector was the stand–out for the week as 26 to 28 micron shot up 80 to 90 cents. This push that started last sale has come about from some large “fake fur” orders being placed in China that uses 25.5 to 27.5 micron wools but these rises may be short lived as requirements may be filled pre-Christmas or early in the New Year.
The absence of the biggest Chinese indent trader did see prices falter early but other buyers soon filled the void to secure volume as well as local traders and one of China’s larger top-makers. A major talking point was quota issues in China with their allocation of 300 million greasy kgs of all wool allowed to be imported rumoured to be fulfilled. We have retained our share of that quota with end of September figures showing a 1% decrease of volume imported year on year. Fresh quotas will be issued in a month and, given the 3 week recess is almost upon us, little impact is expected if quotas have, in fact, closed off for the calendar year. After last week’s rise 40,000 bales are on offer next week and the final sale before Christmas could see close to 50,000 bales for sale. |
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23 November 2018
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WEEKLY MARKET REPORT Week Ending 23rd November, 2018 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison
AT LONG LAST, THE MARKET LIFTS Finally, after weeks of showfloor chatter of a recovery in the market, it did happen!! Hopes were high after the last series’ modest rises that the market could get some serious traction and recoup the recent losses. Whether it be the lower quantities on offer, the fall in the FRX from the Tuesday night high of 73.35 cents to 72.3 before sales commenced, the latest release of wool production forecasting figures or just that the market had fallen enough and the Chinese deemed it was time to step back in and start to buy again is anyone’s guess. Whatever the reason it was a dearer market in all sectors. The AWEX EMI clawed back 77 cents to 1858 led by the medium wool types (19 to 22s) up by 100 to 120 cents. Finer microns were dearer but not to the extent of their broader cousins, still hindered by oversupply and poor quality, 18/18.5 jumped by 60 to 70 cents while < 18 could only find 15 to 30 cent gains as discounts for any fault shrunk as 97.6% of fleece lots were sold in Sydney. The positive tone also extended to Room 2 as skirtings, regardless of VM, style or micron added 40 to 80 cents to their values. It was another good sale for cardings as they jumped an identical amount to last series, 80 cents to 1180 as all types posted 50 to 80 cent rises. Crossbreds weren’t to be outdone either as < 28s climbed by 85 to 110 cents while broader than 30 microns looked up to 50 cents to the good. As mentioned above whatever it takes for the market to rise is welcome but a major factor could have been the latest release of figures by the Wool Production Forecasting Committee that met last week, a month ahead of schedule due to global concern of supply in Australia. The new forecast came in at 305mkg for the current season, down from the 322mkg that was predicted at their August meeting and back by 11% on the 341mkg from last season. These figures are backed up by the AWTA stats that are 9.7% behind last year’s totals to the end of October and offerings are 17% (136,800 bales) lower than to the same sale last year. NSW production is predicted to fall by 20% this season to 100mkg, the lowest since 1902 with some brokers talking of a 25% reduction of wool through their stores by July next year. Alarming stats indeed! Talk of the market keeping this momentum is all the rage with only 3 sales before Christmas buyers need to deliver wool to their mills promptly to process in the new year with the 3 week recess looming. Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 23 November 2018
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16 November 2018
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WEEKLY MARKET REPORT Week Ending 16th November, 2018 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison
WOOLGROWERS VOTE FOR 1.5% The recent Woolpoll voting results have finally been released after the closest vote on record. Like most political elections, preferences had to come into play to determine a winner as first-hand results were too close to call between the 2 favoured options, 1.5% and 2%. After the final tally of preferences the 1.5% levy won by 52.5% over 47.5% for the current rate of 2% to be retained. Despite the call for the levy to be held at 2% from AWI, various industry groups lobbied for the lower option despite the forecasted less revenue due to less wool being sold and with less finances coming in putting some projects at risk. The new levy will commence from July 2019. For just the 4th time in 13 weeks - since the big rise in mid August - the AWEX EMI took a turn for the better, with a modest 5 cent gain to 1781. Talk of a recovery or the market bottoming out has been in the wings for 2-3 sales now but only came to fruition this sale due mainly to a buoyant XB and carding market. The large volume of dusty, fine and tender types < 19 micron saw these wools lose 35 to 55 cents whereas the odd lot with “good specs” gained 40 to 60 cents. Broader microns managed to hold their ground to finish in sellers’ favour. A much higher acceptance of these current prices by growers saw just 6% of the Sydney fleece catalogue passed-in. The big movers in the market were in Room 2. Skirtings had an up and down sale as the opening day’s losses of 20 to 30 cents were regained in the closing session to see this sector finish unchanged to sellers’ favour. The big mover was the carding sector. After getting hammered since the record peak of 1563 cents in mid September to last sale’s low of 1020 (a 543 cent collapse – 35%) the 3 centres averaged a 90 cent gain as all types in this sector added 50 to 150 cents to their previous values. Crossbreds were also buoyed by the renewed buyer competition increasing by up to 30 cents. Could this finally be the bottom of this price cycle? It may well be if all other sectors follow the lead of cardings as a Chinese delegation was here this week and were keen to purchase carding types having been out of the market for several weeks. Also of note was the lift in prices of inferior fleece types by 40 cents late in the final session. The market in Euro terms gained 1.1% even with the ascendency in this currency by 3.5% over the past 3 weeks indicating increased support for the better European types despite China’s absence from the market. Many “good judges” are predicting a dearer market through to Christmas - hope their on the money!! Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 16 November 2018
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9 November 2018
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WEEKLY MARKET REPORT Week Ending 9th November, 2018 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison
THE END OF AN ERA AT AWI
Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 9 November 2018
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2 November 2018
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WEEKLY MARKET REPORT Week Ending 2nd November, 2018 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison
NEXT WEEK ... THE RECOVERY?? Hope that the change of fortunes in Fremantle last Thursday could be a trigger for a market recovery were short lived as the falling market accelerated as the sale progressed. All 3 centres recorded double digit losses (20/30 cents) as the AWEX EMI peeled off by another 20 cents (1%) to 1854. Losses were consistent across all microns, 15 to 30 cents as again buyers struggled to cope with the large volume of drought-affected, fine, low yielding and tender types coming onto the market as growers dug their toes in to pass-in 16% of the national fleece catalogue. The skirting sector was the best performer of any as losses were kept to the barest minimum as all types and descriptions were quoted as “in buyers favour”. Cardings again bore the brunt of buyer resistance as heavy losses over both sale days saw the MCI shed 98 cents in Sydney to 1045, a whopping 518 cents from the record peak of 1563 in early September. Growers were caught out by the magnitude of the losses as the clearance rate was only 73%. Crossbreds also looked to escape the big losses of the past few sales as most microns gave up 10 to 20 cents. Another tough sale as the market fell but did perhaps mask an underlying change of sentiment as the fall in A$ terms can be somewhat attributed to the ascending FRX, up by 0.75%. The 3 other main currencies (US$, Euro and the Chinese Yuan) that are used in wool trading prices were unchanged to buyers’ favour. Demand was stronger from the outset and the only real problem is still the over-supply of sub 18.5 micron types not suitable for European manufacturers but buyer interest is on the up as the price gap between these and 19s to 21s is only 110 to 160 cents compared to 170 to 230 cents at the market’s peak in August making these finer microns good value when compared to their broader cousins. These past few sales have demonstrated that “demand is still king” above all else. Factors like supply, FRX and quality all play their part in price determination but demand is the no.1 factor that dictates price movements and, if demand isn’t there, prices will fall no matter how much other factors are or are not in play. The “demand” component that goes all the way to the retailer has manufacturers worried that consumers will be able to afford these dearer price levels for the Northern Hemisphere winter collection which is in stores now. The shrinking quantity is again in the news as the latest AWTA figures released for October showed a fall of 5.9% from October, 2017, and the progressive total for the season (July to October) is back by 9.7% (102.7mkg) to 118.8mkg compared to last year. This equates to 93,700 bales less offered this season than last, more than 2 selling weeks. Hopefully the market can take a turn for the better next week!!! Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 2 November 2018
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26 October 2018
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WEEKLY MARKET REPORT Week Ending 26th October, 2018 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison
ALL TYPES COP A CANING! Buyer sentiment changed from bad to worse this sale as losses exploded to, in many cases, triple figures with the EMI almost falling a triple figure amount! The AWEX EMI collapsed by 96 cents to 1874, its largest weekly fall for 15 years with the opening day’s 72 cent reduction also the biggest daily fall since 2003. From the original national roster 38,700 bales 7% was withdrawn and 24% was passed-in (highest since February 2014) to have just 26,400 bales sold. The finer end of the market bore the brunt of the collapse as < 18.5 lost 110 to 165 cents with the 19s and broader losing 40 to 90 cents as no type or micron was immune to the big falls.The news was no better in Room 2 as all sectors suffered. Skirtings took a massive hit as all types, regardless of length, micron or VM, gave up 130 to 200 cents. Cardings also felt the full force of buyer resistance as the 3 centres averaged falls of 138 cents as all types in this sector fell 100 to 200 cents as the MCI is now below last year’s level. As was the case last series, Crossbreds were the least affected as losses ranged from 10 cents for the broader microns to 70 cents for 28s and finer. No-one can or would even try to predict a market movement like the one we’ve witnessed, be it up 125 cents like Sale 7 or this series, a fall of 96 cents. Reasons??: the FRX, no it fell by half a cent; the quality of the offering or quantity, unlikely; the fact that higher prices have been in vogue for some time and manufacturers are struggling to pass on these higher prices to retailers is highly likely. Once the pull-back started after Sale 7 we had 5 weeks of stable prices then 3 series of relative calm before last week’s fall. The EMI has lost 242 cents since mid August but is still 300 cents (19%) higher than the same sale 12 months ago with the increases in all merino microns 200 to 650 cents to the good. Most ram sales have finished in this area now with the focus moving to the Southern part of the state. On the whole most studs have reported good clearance rates and higher averages than in past years despite some clients not needing rams due to the dire season and not risking joining’s and large ewe and lamb losses. One sale of note was Grogansworth at Bowning near Yass selling 85% of the offering to top at $6,500 with an average of 2,155. Only 1 week left to vote for Woolpoll 2018 if you’re eligible - just 6200 growers have voted so far. Hopefully the dearer fleece prices in Fremantle yesterday (+5 to 15) will be enough to change saleroom sentiment and stop the rot!! Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 26 October, 2018
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19 October 2018
WEEKLY MARKET REPORT
Week Ending 19th October, 2018
AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison
|
AWEX INDEX |
This Week S16/18 |
This Week M16/18 |
Last Sale S15/18 |
Sydney Change |
Last Year Sydney |
Sydney Yearly Change |
|
17 |
2743 |
2700 |
2857 |
-114 |
2338 |
+405 |
|
18 |
2530 |
2490 |
2593 |
-63 |
2161 |
+369 |
|
19 |
2330 |
2324 |
2381 |
-51 |
1885 |
+445 |
|
20 |
2262 |
2238 |
2278 |
-16 |
1657 |
+605 |
|
21 |
2223 |
2208 |
2243 |
-20 |
1553 |
+670 |
|
22 |
- |
2203n |
- |
-59 (M) |
1481 (M) |
+722 (M) |
|
26 |
1301n |
1336n |
1331 |
-30 |
1043 |
+258 |
|
28 |
- |
846 |
906n |
-14 (M) |
741 (M) |
+105 (M) |
|
30 |
701n |
758 |
711n |
-10 |
521 |
+180 |
|
MC |
1299 |
1304n |
1382 |
-83 |
1206 |
+93 |
FINE WOOL GLUT HINDERS MARKET!
Last sale’s recovery was short lived as the market took a turn for the worst as all sectors fell sharply. The 53 cent fall for the AWEX EMI to 1970 was equal to the losses of 3 weeks ago and just shy of the 62 cent collapse in the opening sale of the season. No type was immune from the negative tone despite the superior quality of the selection on offer with the 3rd designated Super-fine sale of the season held in Sydney. The over-supply of sub 17 microns suffered the largest falls (100 to 150 cents) and even more for lots with poor additional measurement results. 19.5 to 17.5 also fell 50 to 75 cents with the broader microns > 20 giving up 20 cents late in the final session. Growers were caught by the size of the losses as 23% of the national fleece catalogue was passed-in.
Skirtings also took a decent hit with the high concentration of < 17.5 micron taking the brunt of the falls ranging from 40 to 60 cents. Cardings were the worst performing sector as the 3 centres averaged 100 cent losses. High flying LKS collapsed to the tune of 100 to 150 cents with CRT/STN giving up 30 to 40 cents as 25% of the Sydney offering failed to sell. Crossbreds looked to escape the carnage of their merino cousins as losses ranged from 10 to 30 cents.
Despite the national catalogue falling further behind last year’s figures, now 74,300 bales which is 2 selling weeks or 13% the market couldn’t sustain last series mini recovery. The vast majority of the offering is still very much drought affected and, as a result, finer than what most Chinese mills are looking for and not up to the standard that the Europeans require. This sale’s merino fleece selection on the East Coast was a full micron finer than the corresponding sale last year. This is backed up by the latest AWTA figures that, despite testing 11% less wool than last season to date, 70% more wool tested below 16.5, 19% more in the 16.6 to 17.5 range and 9% up 17.6 to 18.5 micron bracket.
European demand does remain strong on the “right types” as does interest from India but once outside their specs the price gap is up to 800 cents from the very best types to the worst. Demand remains strong for 19 microns and broader as the large topmakers and indent buyers from China are still active and could lead to better market conditions reappearing sooner rather than later.
Next week’s offering is just shy of 39,000 bales with a bit less fine wool on offer to hopefully see a settled market. The slight lift in the FRX didn’t seem to be a hindrance this sale but most pundits don’t want to see the A$ go higher. Don’t forget just 2 weeks left to vote for Woolpoll 2018, just 10% of eligible growers have voted so far.
Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 19 October, 2018
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Micron |
Date |
Low |
High |
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21 |
12-Dec-18 |
2185 |
2185 |
Main Buyers (this week)
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1 |
Techwool |
3896 |
2 |
Seatech Ind. |
2946 |
3 |
Tianyu |
2596 |
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4 |
Endeavour |
2216 |
5 |
Fox & Lillie |
2078 |
6 |
Aust. Merino |
1701 |
|
7 |
United Wool |
1376 |
8 |
Modiano |
905 |
9 |
Kathaytex |
799 |
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Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean) 1970cents ê 53 cents compared with 12/10/2018 |
Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean) 2021 cents ê 49 cents compared with 12/10/2018 |
AUD/USD Currency Exchange
0.7133 é 0.0063 compared with 12/10/2018
12 October 2018
WEEKLY MARKET REPORT
Week Ending 12th October, 2018
AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison
|
AWEX INDEX |
This Week S15/18 |
This Week M15/18 |
Last Sale S14/18 |
Sydney Change |
Last Year Sydney |
Sydney Yearly Change |
|
17 |
2857 |
2775 |
2869 |
-12 |
2301 |
+558 |
|
18 |
2593 |
2563 |
2583 |
+10 |
2156 |
+437 |
|
19 |
2381 |
2389 |
2346 |
+35 |
1886 |
+495 |
|
20 |
2278 |
2278 |
2225 |
+53 |
1681n |
+597 |
|
21 |
2243 |
2263 |
2186 |
+57 |
1589n |
+654 |
|
22 |
- |
2262 |
- |
+96 (M) |
1502 (M) |
+760 (M) |
|
26 |
1331 |
- |
1351n |
-20 |
1053 |
+278 |
|
28 |
906n |
860 |
904n |
+2 |
753 |
+153 |
|
30 |
711n |
768 |
701n |
+10 |
526 |
+185 |
|
MC |
1382 |
1410n |
1385 |
-3 |
1188n |
+194 |
MARKET ON THE UPWARD TREND, STORMS STILL PATCHY
The wool market did what everyone was hoping for after last Thursday’s solid finish to that series. Good gains over the 2 days had the AWEX EMI recapture almost a third of its losses from the previous 3 sales, up by 31 cents to sit back over the 2000 cent mark at 2023. The relative stability of the FRX saw the EMI in $US post a 20 cent gain to 1430. The biggest benefactors were the broader microns, > 19 up by 35 to 60 cents as finer microns were a touch cheaper bar the superior types that were quoted 50/60 dearer under renewed competition.
Skirtings also followed the lead from their fleece wool counterparts ascending by 20 to 30 cents with emphasis on < 5% VM. Cardings had a flat sale after LKS gave up 10/20 cents while STN added a similar amount. This halted the steep falls of the past 3 sales (178 cents) after setting a new record in early September. Crossbreds had an up and down series as < 26s lost 20 to 30 cents while broader types added up to 10 cents.
The market certainly benefitted from the lower $A v $US rate on Wednesday as the conversion rate was at its best for almost 3 years. The lift in the market a relief for growers as many thought the correction was in the wind for last sale. Exporters scrambled to cover off inventory as some of the larger top-makers and indent buyers have made the decision to ramp up their purchases to ensure supply for upcoming increased machinery demands. Focus is well and truly on a shortfall in supply and a major concern for all in the processing chain. We are already 64,500 bales (12%) behind last season’s volume offered with this figure to become larger. With this in mind the Aust. Wool Prod. Forecasting Committee will meet on 14th November, 4 weeks earlier than was scheduled to give an updated report on how the numbers will be crunched re forecasted volumes post-Christmas something the Global Textile industry will be keeping a very close eye on.
All growers should have now received information for the Woolpoll 2018 vote. There are only 3 weeks left to vote either by reply paid mail, a toll free number (1800 211 736) or online at www.woolpoll.com.au AWI has been holding a series of info seminars to talk about marketing and research and the vote on the level of wool tax growers can vote on 1 of 5 options. Meetings at Dunedoo and Wellington saw about 30 growers at each - AWI stressed the importance of voting and how the reduced volume of wool sold will affect the amount of tax to be collected thus putting some projects at risk due to less wool tax revenue. Market should be stable with 37,000 bales on offer.
Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 12 October, 2018
|
Micron |
Date |
Low |
High |
|
21 |
23-Jan-19 |
2200 |
2200 |
|
21 |
10-Apr-19 |
2165 |
2165 |
Main Buyers (this week)
|
1 |
Techwool |
3866 |
2 |
Tianyu |
3183 |
3 |
Fox & Lillie |
3011 |
|
4 |
Modiano |
2172 |
5 |
Aust. Merino |
1946 |
6 |
PJ Morris |
1639 |
|
7 |
Michell Aust. |
1564 |
8 |
Seatech Ind. |
1398 |
9 |
Lempriere |
1072 |
|
Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean) 2023cents é 31 cents compared with 5/10/2018 |
Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean) 2070 cents é 20 cents compared with 5/10/2018 |
AUD/USD Currency Exchange
0.7070 ê 0.0010 compared with 5/10/2018
5 October 2018
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WEEKLY MARKET REPORT Week Ending 8th October, 2018 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison
HIT AND MISS BUT GREAT IF YOU WERE LUCKY! Some great falls were recorded over the past couple of days. Sadly some areas that needed it the most had little reprieve but around Dubbo up to 65mm fell and north of Brewarrina 50mm, so there’s a few who are smiling today.
The wool market didn’t have a great week offering 39,261 bales with the EMI losing another 21 cents which makes it 100 cents in the last three weeks. Most of the pain was felt at the very fine end with 16.5 losing 100 cents this week. The other sector to record significant losses was the burry types and, as the VM rose, the discounts went in step. The middle micron and low VM types actually fared quite well posting gains particularly on the final day giving some confidence that we may be about to turn the corner. The dollar did plunge yesterday to be almost two cents lower than last week so hopefully this will help arrest the fall. On that, currency movements cannot be blamed on the easing market as the EMI in USD terms over the past three weeks has fallen roughly the same amount.
As we said a few weeks ago two areas of concern are that cardings historically appear unsustainable and have been supply driven for some time and the remainder of the merino market is now in a supply driven phase whereas, up until recently, it was demand driven. The fear of supply will see erratic movements as processors from time to time will scramble to source raw material. All eyes are on the monthly data coming out of AWTA and this week the July-September data was released showing nationally a decline of 11.4% less wool tested and September, in isolation, was a scary 19.3%. NSW for September was down 33% compared to last year!
Just a reminder for those who wish to hear first hand about AWI’s performance and projects, particularly with WoolPoll on there will be a lunchtime event at Dunedoo Showground next Monday at 11am, and a 5pm meeting at the Wellington Soldiers Club. We urge you to make the time to come along, have a listen, ask questions and take some time out. Please call 1800 070 099 to register at no cost.
Next week a smaller offering of 34,500 bales will be offered with hopes pinned on a turnaround in fortunes which would go well with more rain! Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 5/10/2018
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