Weekly Market Reports


10 February 2012

Friday, February 10, 2012

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 10th February, 2012

Northern Micron Indices Comparison: Source of information: AWEX

AWEX
INDEX

This Week
10/02/12

Last Week
03/02/12

Change

Last Year
10/02/11

Yearly
Change

18

1590

1499

+91

2072

-482

19

1487

1418

+69

1589

-102

20

1400

1346

+54

1192

+208

21

1383

1302

+81

1137

+246

22

1349

1290n

+59

1087

+262

23

1341 (M)

1277 (M)

+64

1038

+303

24

1165n (M)

1117 (M)

+48

NA

-

28

615

596n

+19

558

+57

30

547

524n

+23

500

+47

32

493n

482n

+11

445

+48

MC

707

697

+10

721

-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

MARKET DEFIES CURRENCY

The more holidays this author has the better the wool market performs! In late October we saw a 100 cent rise for most fleece types while on hiatus in New Zealand dissecting Australia’s dismal World Cup performance. This time, the market took a fifty cent rise, hot on the heels of a week studying monsoonal rain events in Fiji! After two sales of stability, the market finally made a move. By the end of the week 50 cents had been added to the EMI to see it at 1243 cents. A solid start in Melbourne on Tuesday saw momentum build to record double digit rises across the two remaining days in all three centres. The pass-in rate was below 10% nationally, a rarity given Fremantle’s tough stance selling wool. A great result when the A$ keeps rising, peaking at 108 US cents on Wednesday night, almost 10 cents higher than the Sale 24 level before Christmas. This week’s close has the market at a 5 month high, just the fourth occasion since the end of September the EMI has cracked the 1200 cent barrier.

This week’s rise came from almost nothing as popular consensus was an unchanged or even slightly cheaper market as the exchange rate worsened and too many external factors like interest rates, leadership uncertainty in Australian politics, Middle East unrest and Greece’s indecision to accept the bail-out package from the EU had most buyers and traders in a “holding pattern” as to when to step in and buy and what exactly would trigger this next purchasing phase. In our favour is a slowly decreasing wool clip, a short term drop in receivals to some broker’s stores due to the floods in QLD and NSW and the fundamental supply and demand situation. Finer types led the charge as 19 micron and lower added 70 to 100 cents. This continues their good gains over the past two weeks for sub 17 micron as we build to increased offerings of fine wool in the next three weeks with reportedly good inquiry helping to lift these types back to some sort of reasonable level (16.5 now at 2000 cents clean). Medium to broad fleece types gained 45 to 65 cents with the stand-outs being 21 and 25s adding 80 to 90 cents. We cleared every fleece lot with, as usual, discounts for colour, cott and VM shrinking dramatically with 23% making over 1000 cents and just 10 lots under 800 cents. A great result!

Skirtings opened the sale with a bang. 17 micron and finer lifting by 30 to 40 cents and 18 and broader around 5% VM progressing 10 to 20 cents. The final day was subdued when compared to the previous day but buyers still managed to lift all descriptions another 10 cents. Cardings made consistent gains over the two selling days with the MCI adding 5 cents on both days to see the indicator at 707cents. Crossbreds weren’t to be outdone either as 28 to 30 micron posted 20 to 30 cent gains with 32s 10 cents dearer. Next week seems to be a bit of an unknown as yet, but anything may happen!      

Agrisk FDIC Indicative Quotes 03/02/2012

20

21

22

AWEX

1334.0

1296.0

1284.5

Feb-12

1273

1236

1210

Apr-12

1266

1229

1203

Jun-12

1242

1205

1179

Aug-12

1210

1173

1147

Oct-12

1157

1120

1079

Dec-12

1137

1100

1059

Feb-13

1102

1065

1024

Apr-13

1081

1044

1003

MAJOR AUCTION BUYERS (Bales)

1

Viterra Wool

5899

2

Techwool Trading

3731

3

Dalgety Wool Exp.

2250

4

QLD Cotton

2002

5

PJ Morris

1814

6

Modiano (Aust)

1733

7

Williams Wool

1662

8

Fox & Lillie

1539

9

Chinatex

1397

                       

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)                                                       AUD/USD Currency Exchange

                Eastern 1243 cents é 50cents compared with 2/02/12                                 1.0780 é 0.0044 compared with 2/02/12

                Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

                Northern 1270 cents é 50 cents compared with 2/02/12

3 February 2012

Friday, February 03, 2012

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 3rd February, 2012

Northern Micron Indices Comparison: Source of information: AWEX

AWEX
INDEX

This Week
03/02/12

Last Week
27/01/12

Change

Last Year
27/01/11

Yearly
Change

18

1499

1513

-14

2077

-578

19

1418

1431

-13

1638

-220

20

1346

1352

-6

1203

+143

21

1302

1308

-6

1162

+140

22

1290n

1288n

+2

1110

+180

23

1277 (M)

1271 (M)

+6

NA

-

24

1117 (M)

1135 (M)

-18

NA

-

28

596n

596

0

567

+29

30

524n

528

-4

503

+21

32

482n

481n

+1

448

+34

MC

697

697

0

700

-3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

DOLLAR SINKS THE SURGE

It was another reasonable week at wool sales despite the strong surge from the dollar reaching a five month high of US1.07 yesterday. For the second week in a row the superfine types met with strong demand with the 16.5 micron indicator rising just on 100 cents for the fortnight.

All other categories either “treaded water” (pardon the pun) or slipped slightly against the weight of the appreciating currency. The EMI in US currency is nearly 100 cents higher at 1281 which was up 25 cents for the week. As China is purchasing 70% of our wool and their currency is hinged to the US dollar it has a significant impact on buying power. The whole issue of China pegging the Yuan to the US dollar is an issue of consternation to most western economies who feel China is unfairly piggy backing on the weak US currency to keep their imports cheap. All industrialised countries are struggling to compete with cheap imports from China and many argue that, if floated, it would appreciate by up to 40%.

So this week saw a small offering of just over 37,000 bales with, apart from superfine types, most merino types were solid on the first day and drifted up to 10 cents clean yesterday. Merino skirtings ended the week unchanged as did crossbred types and cardings. Our sources expect Chinese activity to keep the market at somewhere around these levels as offerings for the next month are expected to be around 45,000 a week. Brokers in NSW and Qld will be well down after next week as the prolonged wet spell has stalled shearing and wool deliveries into store in many areas.

Supply will continue to be the main factor keeping the market at these levels as wool production figures for year to date to end of January show wool volume by weight 1.1% lower than last year. Actual volumes of clean fleece weight could be slightly higher as many clips we see are yielding higher than last year by a couple of percent, easing growers concerns over fleece weights being down.

Whilst the fine wool indicators are below last year’s levels the end result over the total offering is still very healthy.

The average for all fleece wool sold in Sydney this week was 983 cents greasy (19.2u ave), whilst crossbred fleece averaged 388 cents a kilo at 27.4u average.

Next week Don Macdonald & Co will offer over 1300 bales first up on Thursday with expectations being similar to this week’s market or maybe a touch lower depending on the dollar. A national offering of 44,980 bales in expected in three centres.

 

Agrisk FDIC Indicative Quotes 03/02/2012

20

21

22

AWEX

1334.0

1296.0

1284.5

Feb-12

1273

1236

1210

Apr-12

1266

1229

1203

Jun-12

1242

1205

1179

Aug-12

1210

1173

1147

Oct-12

1157

1120

1079

Dec-12

1137

1100

1059

Feb-13

1102

1065

1024

Apr-13

1081

1044

1003

MAJOR AUCTION BUYERS (Bales)

1

Viterra Wool

4722

2

Fox & Lillie

3047

3

Techwool Trading

2713

4

Dalgety Wool Exp.

1875

5

QLD Cotton

1764

6

Modiano (Aust)

1592

7

Williams Wool

1569

8

G Schneider (Aust)

1474

9

Lempriere Aust.

1290

                       

 

                Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)                     AUD/USD Currency Exchange

                Eastern 1193 cents ê 4cents compared with 27/01/12                                1.0736 é 0.0216 compared with 27/01/12

                Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

                Northern 1220 cents ê 3 cents compared with 27/01/12

27 January 2012

Friday, January 27, 2012

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 27th January, 2012

Northern Micron Indices Comparison: Source of information: AWEX

AWEX
INDEX

This Week
27/01/12

Last Sale
20/01/12

Change

Last Year
27/01/11

Yearly
Change

18

1513

1508

+5

1958

-445

19

1431

1430

+1

1560

-129

20

1352

1349

+3

1147

+205

21

1308

1305

+3

1111

+197

22

1288n

1276n

+12

1060

+228

23

1271 (M)

1227 (M)

+44

1016

+255

26

761n

755n

+6

748

+13

28

596

597

-1

574

+22

30

528

531

-3

507

+21

32

481n

481n

0

449

+32

MC

697

696

+1

689

+8

ROCK SOLID DESPITE GREECE’S BEST EFFORTS

Not since 450BC has Greece had such an impact on the world’s economy. The tiny pocket handkerchief European country ranked the 37th largest economy in the world has again made headlines as the possible cause of world wide recession or worse. Despite this, and against an appreciating dollar, the wool market shrugged off a previous lackluster week to post gains in nearly all categories.

At the top of the list was the significant gains posted in the super fine types not quoted above. 16 microns, for example, were over 50 cents dearer and it was pleasing to see in our catalogue on Wednesday the sub 18 micron lots rally by 50 to 100 cents. A glance at the yearly change column above will, for many growers, still look pleasing with around 200 cents or better compared to last year. It is a little harder to swallow for fine wool growers who, 12 months ago, had a brief moment in the sun, only to see this eroded by a combination of the “Greece” factor and continued strong supply. One major Italian processor commented just before Christmas that the growth in production of the sub 16 micron types has far outstripped the growth in demand, and it would take some time for the imbalance to correct itself.

The remainder of the catalogue saw widespread competition which was evidenced by a low pass-in rate. Approximately 42% of our fleece offering made above 1000 cents greasy which, to most growers, is a good result. The catalogue contained  a few lots which were passed in just before the recess and these all sold at higher levels - some over 100 cents above. Lots that contained fault; either high VM, over length or degree of cot were lines that sold well above previous passed-in prices  which is a good indication of increased competition. Cardings changed little and this sector has been a little flat for some time, but maintaining an acceptable level. There are only a few major players in this sector, particularly carbonising types and if even one or two sit back it can cause a flat spot.

One major buyer commented this week that there is a very solid base at present and things could only improve. Unfortunately though we have heard this many times and it depends on their current stock book and current orders. Obviously right now they aren’t holding much stock and must have a few orders. It has to be remembered though that Greece (and the other dominoes in front of it) are still a factor which we have to keep an eye on.

Next week a small offering of 39,689 bales will be offered which should keep them keen.

One final note, March 24 is the date for the Woolstore opening. Mark it in your diary, details will follow soon!

 

Agrisk FDIC Indicative Quotes 27/01/2012

20

21

22

AWEX

1344.5

1302.5

1291.0

Feb-12

1328

1291

1265

Apr-12

1318

1281

1255

Jun-12

1294

1257

1231

Aug-12

1262

1225

1199

Oct-12

1209

1172

1131

Dec-12

1189

1152

1111

Feb-13

1154

1117

1076

Apr-13

1133

1096

1055

MAJOR AUCTION BUYERS (Bales)

1

Techwool Trading

6081

2

Viterra Wool

5434

3

Fox & Lillie

2757

4

Dalgety Wool Exp.

2248

5

Lempriere Aust.

2077

6

Kathaytex

1912

7

QLD Cotton

1837

8

Williams Wool

1785

9

Chinatex

1692

                       

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)                                               AUD/USD Currency Exchange

                Eastern 1194 cents é (4) compared with 19/01/12                               1.0520 é 0.0123 compared with 19/01/12

                Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

                Northern 1227 cents é (3) compared with 19/01/12

20 January 2012

Friday, January 20, 2012

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 20th January, 2012

Northern Micron Indices Comparison: Source of information: AWEX

AWEX
INDEX

This Week
20/01/12

Last Sale
13/01/12

Change

Last Year
20/01/11

Yearly
Change

18

1508

1558

-50

1953

-445

19

1430

1472

-42

1544

-114

20

1349

1394

-45

1145

+204

21

1305

1347

-42

1103

+202

22

1276n

1303

-27

1058

+218

23

1227 (M)

1237 (M)

-10

1008

+219

26

755n

763n

-8

752

+3

28

597

613

-16

579

+18

30

531

556

-25

509

+22

32

481n

518n

-37

446

+35

MC

696

695

+1

688

+8

NEW YEAR’S PARTY WELL AND TRULY OVER

New Year’s celebrations certainly came to an abrupt halt as the wool market gave up practically all of last week’s advances. The bad finish that Fremantle had last Thursday, and our prediction that this could set the trend for this week, was unfortunately spot on. The EMI lost 26 cents compared to the 27 cent rise of the opening sale of the year. With the A$ on the rise the fall in US$ terms equated to just 15 cents after an opening gain of 76 cents. The finer microns fared the best as 17.5 and finer lost 10 to 25 cents. 18 to 19.5 micron fell 35 to 50 cents - identical to the rises of the opening week. The middle microns were mixed, as 20 and 21s lost 40 to 45 cents falling more than the previous sale’s gains, whereas 22 and 23 micron types retreated by 10 to 25 cents after rising 60 to 70 cents at the opening sale. This week’s damage was done early in the sale as Melbourne opened the sale with a 9 cent fall on Tuesday. All three centres were on line on Wednesday with further falls sending the EMI 14 cents lower. Thursday saw a better tone with buyers reporting a solid to dearer market by up to 10 cents for most categories. The AWEX report however showed finer lots dearer, with 19 micron and broader up to 5 cents off with 18 to 18.5 down 10 to 15 cents. This sale was the third largest national offering of the season (the biggest since August). The offering consisted of 30,000 bales of fleece (52%) a jump of 6% on the previous sale.

In defiance to the fleece room, skirtings held onto their gains of last week with all descriptions and VM levels staying rock solid or tending sellers’ favour by up to 10 cents. Cardings had a mixed week to see the MCI add 1 cent to sit at 696 cents. Locks gave up 20 to 25 cents while crutchings added 20 cents to their quotes while stains were unchanged. The volume of XB wool on offer did drop away (20%), but still saw the market retreat over all sectors. 28 and finer lost 10 to 15 cents while the broader microns of 30 and up came off 25 to 35 cents.

Disappointing to see the market drop after such a promising start the previous week. It was hard to pinpoint any real reason for the fall, from the rising A$ to a big weekly quantity to dare we say, Chinese New Year celebrations. A drop in quantity to mid to low 40,000s may help the market over the next few weeks. Futures were trading up to 10 cents dearer late today. This, as well as Fremantle’s Thursday market, can be a good guide to the fortunes of the next sale. We offer 480 bales on Wednesday of next week with the market hopefully to stabilise. 

                        

                                                                               Agrisk FDIC Indicative Quotes 20/01/2012

20

21

22

AWEX

1343.0

1299.5

1275.0

Feb-12

1325

1286

1220

Apr-12

1310

1271

1205

Jun-12

1298

1259

1193

Aug-12

1266

1227

1161

Oct-12

1195

1156

1090

Dec-12

1173

1134

1068

Feb-13

1138

1099

1033

Apr-13

1117

1078

1012

MAJOR AUCTION BUYERS (Bales)

1

Viterra Wool

8898

2

Techwool Trading

4623

3

QLD Cotton

3693

4

Fox & Lillie

2941

5

Chinatex

2791

6

G Schneider (Aust)

2459

7

Williams Wool

2218

8

Modiano (Aust)

1659

9

Lempriere Aust.

1641

                       

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)                                                               AUD/USD Currency Exchange

                Eastern 1190 cents ê (26) compared with 12/01/12                                             1.0397 é 0.0095 compared with 13/01/12

                Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

                Northern 1224 cents ê(26) compared with 12/01/12

13 January 2012

Friday, January 13, 2012

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 13th January, 2012

Northern Micron Indices Comparison: Source of information: AWEX

AWEX
INDEX

This Week
13/01/12

Last Sale
16/12/11

Change

Last Year
13/01/11

Yearly
Change

18

1558

1509

+49

1857

-299

19

1472

1426

+46

1555

-83

20

1394

1356

+38

1153

+241

21

1347

1320

+27

1116

+231

22

1303

1243n

+60

1069

+234

23

1231n

1160n

+71

1010

+221

26

763n

754n

+9

674

+89

28

613

613

0

523

+90

30

556

555

+1

464

+92

32

518n

518n

0

414

+104

MC

695

673

+22

658

+37

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

The Christmas cheer from the last sale of 2011 extended into the new year as sales resumed after the three week lay-off. Melbourne opened proceedings on Tuesday with XBs accounting for 33% of the catalogue as against the FLC selection making up 35% of the offering. These startling figures illustrate just how much XB wool is still coming through the system. Joinings to terminal sires seems to be as popular as ever or, in some areas, growing whereas convincing growers to join to a merino ram is like telling someone the horse and cart is the way of the future! This high volume of XB wool and the shrinking amount of merino wool must be a concern for not only the breeding industry but also for mills trying to keep up with the ever increasing domestic demand from China and India. All three centres were on line on Wednesday with increases of up to 60 cents for some finer indicators. Thursday saw a minor correction in Sydney of up to 10 cents with Melbourne’s medium types losing 10 to 15 cents. The worrying market was in the west as Fremantle (which can signal market direction for the next selling day) fell 20 to 40 cents. Despite Thursday’s hiccup the increases were still good as the table above shows. The EMI gained 27 cents (2.3%) and in US terms a jump of 75 cents (6.4%). Currency rates remained steady for most of the week at around 103 US cents for 1$ AUD, this representing a 4 cent rise from when sales finished in 2011. A good result despite the currency shift and ongoing economic worries in Europe.

Skirtings mirrored the fleece room as all vm levels and styles made good gains right through to the final lot on Thursday. The best style fine and superfine pieces and bellies added 50 to 70 cents to their pre Christmas values with the broader and less stylish lots gaining 20 to 30 cents. As explained earlier the large amount of XB wool combined with cardings  amounted to 20,000 bales (41%) of the national catalogue - the largest offering in both sections for 12 months. Locks added 40 to 50 cents while crutchings and stains were up to 15 cents better sending the MCI up 22 cents to 695 cents. Crossbreds remained unchanged in Sydney, except for 26s moving 10 cents higher and 5 up in Melbourne where the broader types suffered under the big volume, retreating 5 to 15 cents. Next week’s third largest national catalogue of the season at 57,000 bales may test the market as Thursday’s Fremantle falls could be a precursor to next week. This week’s rise was driven more by a supply shortage than an increase in demand according to a few traders. Interesting times ahead!

                  

                                                                Agrisk FDIC Indicative Quotes 13/01/2012

20

21

22

AWEX

1391.5

1337.5

1301.0

Feb-12

1385

1346

1280

Apr-12

1340

1301

1235

Jun-12

1327

1288

1222

Aug-12

1295

1256

1190

Oct-12

1224

1185

1119

Dec-12

1202

1163

1097

Feb-13

1167

1128

1062

Apr-13

1146

1107

1041

MAJOR AUCTION BUYERS (Bales)

1

Techwool Trading

5587

2

Viterra Wool

4153

3

Fox & Lillie

3274

4

Kathaytex

3066

5

Modiano (Aust)

2682

6

Williams Wool

2642

7

PJ Morris

1846

8

Chinatex

1736

9

Dalgety Wool Exports

1578

                       

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)                                                                AUD/USD Currency Exchange

                Eastern 1216 cents (é27) compared with 16/12/11                                                1.0302 ê 0.0403 compared with 16/12/11

                Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

                Northern 1250 cents (é33) compared with 16/12/11

16 December 2011

Friday, December 16, 2011

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 16th December, 2011

Northern Micron Indices Comparison: Source of information: AWEX

AWEX
INDEX

This Week
16/12/11

Last Week
9/12/11

Change

Last Year
16/12/10

Yearly
Change

18

1509

1469

+40

1631

-122

19

1426

1400

+26

1306

+120

20

1356

1328

+28

1034

+322

21

1320

1299

+21

1008

+312

22

1243n

1221n

+22

961

+282

23

1160n

1138n

+22

904

+256

26

754n

756n

-2

634

+120

28

613

610

+3

484

+129

30

555

558

-3

436

+119

32

518n

533n

-15

405

+113

MC

673

678

-5

651

+22

FROM DOOM AND GLOOM TO CHRISTMAS CHEER

It’s always good to see that our bold predictions in our weekly market reports are somewhere on the money most of the time. We pride ourselves in supplying correct and factual market intelligence to keep our woolgrowers in the loop as to price trends and concise marketing decisions. Sometimes we do get it wrong - when the market takes an unexpected turn for the worse. Last week was a good example, as our prediction of a flat or cheaper market was thankfully wrong. Buyer sentiment changed over the weekend with plenty of enquiry coming out of India, a national catalogue less than expected(11%) and a softening exchange rate all augured well for a strong end to the year before the three week Christmas recess. All three centres recorded good rises as most of last week’s falls were negated by a 21 cent jump in the EMI and a 36 cent increase in Fremantle. All indicators rose by 20 to 45 cents in Sydney. The best result was the 7 cent rise in Melbourne on Thursday as a stand alone selling day, allaying fears of a tapering market. Sydney hosted it’s third smallest so far this season - just 10,011 bales with only 383 lots of fleece on the opening day (one of the smallest on record). The EMI has finished the year on 1189 cents, 158 cents higher (15%) than the same week 12 months ago with the peak at the end of June at an amazing lofty level of 1425 cents.

Skirtings opened the sale on a softer note as better style and low VM types finer than 19 micron gave up 20 cents with the broader burrier lots remaining unchanged. The tone was much the same on the final selling session as again the burrier types came under more buyer pressure pushing these 10 to 20 cents better across all micron categories with 18s and finer irregular and 19 micron and coarser under 5% VM and lower solid. Cardings opened the sale on a solid note as locks added 5 to 10 cents with stains and crutchings unchanged. Unlike other sectors, a cheaper trend set in on the final day as locks gave up the previous day’s advances; stains lost 20 cents and crutchings were unchanged. The MCI is now at 673 cents, this an unfavourable level to the peak of late June of 841 cents! Crossbreds remained basically unchanged for 30 micron and finer as movements were subtle, just a few cents either way. The coarse types, 32 and broader, fell 15 cents.

A good way to end the year and, from what buyers are reporting, the market will open strongly when sales resume on Wednesday 11th January. Thanks to everyone for their support during the year under what turned out to be some very trying circumstances. All the best for the festive season and we look forward to a promising 2012.       

 

                                                                               Agrisk FDIC Indicative Quotes 9/12/2011

20

21

22

AWEX

1330.5

1301.5

1221.5

Dec-11

1340

1301

1235

Feb-12

1327

1288

1222

Apr-12

1300

1261

1195

Jun-12

1255

1216

1150

Aug-12

1223

1184

1118

Oct-12

1152

1113

1047

Dec-12

1130

1091

1025

Feb-12

1095

1056

990

MAJOR AUCTION BUYERS (Bales)

1

Techwool Trading

4920

2

Fox & Lillie

4217

3

QLD Cotton

3987

4

Viterra Wool

3587

5

Williams Wool

3487

6

PJ Morris

2099

7

Chinatex

1375

8

Aust. Merino Exports

983

9

AS Gedge

619

                       

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)                                                                AUD/USD Currency Exchange

                Eastern 1189 cents (é21) compared with 09/12/11                                                0.9899 ê 0.0366 compared with 09/12/11

                Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

                Northern 1217 cents (é13) compared with 09/12/11

9 December 2011

Friday, December 09, 2011

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 9th December, 2011

Northern Micron Indices Comparison: Source of information: AWEX

AWEX
INDEX

This Week
09/12/11

Last Week
02/12/11

Change

Last Year
09/12/10

Yearly
Change

18

1469

1500

-31

1590

-121

19

1400

1427

-27

1272

+128

20

1328

1372

-44

1008

+320

21

1299

1355

-56

980

+319

22

1221n

1243n

-22

939

+282

23

1138n

1157n

-19

893

+245

26

756n

769n

-13

650

+106

28

610

622

-12

483

+127

30

558

576

-18

445

+113

32

533n

548n

-15

414

+119

MC

678

698

-20

653

+25

TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT

The lack of confidence amongst the buyers that the market would do an about-face or even stabilise was on the money as far as this week’s sale unfolded.  All three centres fell over the three days of selling with the EMI shedding 25 cents to sit at 1168 cents (a seven week low). The fall was identical in US cent terms, now at 1198 cents. Something drastic would have to change in sentiment for the final sale before the three week Christmas recess to see any positive outcome next week as another big national offering (two consecutive sales of 50,000) gives China enough reason to think there is an abundance of wool about! How wrong they are. The sale started with the large Melbourne catalogue on Tuesday with 44% stored in Launceston. Most had hoped that the fall in the market would be due to the extra shipping cost associated with Tasmanian wool but this sadly wasn’t the case. With all three centres selling on Wednesday the falls in Sydney and Fremantle were large to say the least. All micron indicators recorded double digit falls - 15 to 45 cents in Sydney and 35 to 65 cents in Fremantle, their first 2 day sale since mid October. The negative tone continued on the final day as finer microns found a little support, but medium types retreated by another 10 to 25 cents. By week’s end most indicators retreated 20 to 35 cents with 20, 21 and 16.5s giving up 40 to 55 cents. Most noticeable in the last few weeks is the closing gap between the fine and medium microns. The gap between 19 and 21s is just 100 cents and 18s only 70 cents higher than 19 micron. This compares poorly with the market at the end of June with 19s 230 cents higher than 21 and the 18 micron indicator a massive 315 cents better than 19s.

Following the softer tone on Tuesday of 10 to 30 cents, skirtings lost 10 to 15 cents for 19 and finer up to 5%VM with the broader and better length AM tested lots unchanged. A similar pattern emerged on Thursday as medium micron, burrier lots posted modest gains as the finer and lower VM types gave up another 10 to 20 cents. As is the case in the fleece room, the gap is closing, this time between the VM ranges. Cardings tracked south again as locks virtually unwanted as finer locks came back 80 cents with 19 micron and broader shaving 40 cents off previous sale quotes. Crutchings fell by 20 cents while stains being the least affected, losing 10 cents. Crossbreds, again this week, were the least affected as most types drifted 15 to 20 cents lower. Next week will see another national offering close to 50,000 bales with very little prospect of a dearer market.   

                                                                   Agrisk FDIC Indicative Quotes 9/12/2011

20

21

22

AWEX

1330.5

1301.5

1221.5

Dec-11

1340

1301

1235

Feb-12

1327

1288

1222

Apr-12

1300

1261

1195

Jun-12

1255

1216

1150

Aug-12

1223

1184

1118

Oct-12

1152

1113

1047

Dec-12

1130

1091

1025

Feb-12

1095

1056

990

MAJOR AUCTION BUYERS (Bales)

1

Viterra Wool

4289

2

Fox & Lillie

4107

3

QLD Cotton

3725

4

Williams Wool

3508

5

Techwool Trading

3496

6

Lempriere

2265

7

Kathaytex

1518

8

Chinatex

1501

9

PJ Morris

1498

                       

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)                                                               AUD/USD Currency Exchange

                Eastern 1168 cents (ê25) compared with 02/12/11                                               1.0265 é 0.0008 compared with 02/12/11

                Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

                Northern 1204 cents (ê28) compared with 02/12/11

2 December 2011

Friday, December 02, 2011

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 2nd December, 2011

Northern Micron Indices Comparison: Source of information: AWEX

AWEX
INDEX

This Week
02/12/11

Last Week
25/11/11

Change

Last Year
02/12/10

Yearly
Change

18

1500

1540

-40

1621

-121

19

1427

1436n

-9

1290

+137

20

1372

1353n

+19

1017

+355

21

1355

1323n

+32

1002

+353

22

1244 (M)

1217 (M)

+27

944

+300

23

1160 (M)

1138 (M)

+22

902

+258

26

763n (M)

761n (M)

+2

671

+92

28

629 (M)

630 (M)

-1

487

+142

30

575 (M)

582 (M)

-7

444

+131

32

546n (M)

554 (M)

-8

414

+132

MC

698

736

-38

649

+49

A VOLATILE WEEK

The good start to the week came to an abrupt halt as most of the opening days rises were negated by a savage fall on Thursday to have just a 1 cent rise in the EMI to 1193 by the end of the week. Show-floor talk of a good rise was spot on as the market opened dearer on Wednesday with the emphasis on 19 micron and broader which posted a 15 to 45 cent rise. The finer microns were quoted from 8 cents up to 6 cheaper, with a few “straight types” looking 15 to 20 cents better than the previous week’s quotes. The exchange rate then looked to play its part on Thursday. After falling to under 97 US cents late last week and steadily rising to a tick under parity on Wednesday, the sudden overnight spike to 103 cents sent the market into a tail-spin on Thursday with the 19 micron and finer taking the biggest hits with falls of 30 to 45 cents. The middle micron losses weren’t as severe recording losses of 10 to 15 cents. With the currency jumping, this equated to a 62 cent rise in US cent terms to 1223 cents (5.2%). The week to week rise in the exchange of 5.12 cents was the biggest factor in the volatile movement in the market with co-ordinated action by European Central banks to help restore liquidity to global financial systems the main reason for strengthening currencies on Wednesday night. By the final lot on Thursday, 18.5 and finer lost 20 to 45 cents, 20 and broader 20 to 30 cents better and 19s back 10 with 19.5 in sellers’ favour.

Skirtings mirrored the fleece room as all types and descriptions added 10 to 20 cents from the opening bell on Wednesday with most emphasis on lots 5% VM and higher. Buyers gave up these good advancements on the final day with losses of 20 cents for most categories but 20 micron and coarser least affected. Cardings looked to be the worst performing sector of the sale as Thursday’s big loss contributed to the MCI dropping 38 cents (7.5%) to 698 cents. Locks collapsed to the tune of 50 to 60 cents while stains and crutchings tracked 20 to 25 cents down. The big volumes of Crossbreds continue to be offered on the eastern seaboard with Sydney cataloguing their largest weekly selection in three years (25%). Despite the volume and currency shifts, crossbred types basically held their ground with an average 5 cent fall.

Some buyers also seemed to be spooked by the size of next week’s national offering of 52,000 bales - the largest since mid September. This spike in quantity is due to Melbourne’s jump in volume to 31,000 bales next week from an average of 23,000 over the last five weeks - a ridiculous 37% increase - orderly marketing at its worst! Year on year figures show a fall of 25,000 less than last year and the November 2011 figures worse - 39,000 bales less than last November. We sell last on Thursday next week with hope of a market recovery not that confident amongst the buying trade.                                                                

                                                                   Agrisk FDIC Indicative Quotes 2/12/2011

20

21

22

AWEX

1370.5

1349.0

1243.5

Dec-11

1350

1311

1245

Feb-12

1355

1316

1250

Apr-12

1330

1291

1225

Jun-12

1305

1266

1200

Aug-12

1280

1241

1175

Oct-12

1209

1170

1104

Dec-12

1187

1148

1082

Feb-12

1152

1113

1047

MAJOR AUCTION BUYERS (Bales)

1

Techwool Trading

5390

2

Viterra Wool

4465

3

Fox & Lillie

3577

4

QLD Cotton

2943

5

Williams Wool

2676

6

Chinatex

2003

7

Lempriere

1914

8

AS Gedge

1140

9

PJ Morris

976

                       

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)                                               AUD/USD Currency Exchange

                Eastern 1193 cents (é1) compared with 25/11/11                                 1.0257 é 0.0512 compared with 25/11/11

                Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

                Northern 1232 cents (é1) compared with 18/11/11

25 November 2011

Friday, November 25, 2011

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 25th November, 2011

Northern Micron Indices Comparison: Source of information: AWEX

AWEX
INDEX

This Week
25/11/11

Last Week
18/11/11

Change

Last Year
25/11/10

Yearly
Change

18

1540

1530

+10

1620

-80

19

1436n

1438

-2

1275

+161

20

1353n

1354

-1

997

+356

21

1323n

1297

+26

976

+347

22

1217 (M)

1200 (M)

+17

931

+286

23

1138 (M)

1103n (M)

+35

-

-

26

761n (M)

785n (M)

-24

-

-

28

630 (M)

620 (M)

+10

488

+142

30

582 (M)

579 (M)

+3

444

+138

32

554 (M)

561n (M)

-7

-

-

MC

736

727

+9

650

+86

CHANGE OF SENTIMENT – THINGS LOOKING UP

Newcastle looked as if it would succumb to the pressure of subdued demand, more bad economic news coming out of Europe and too much of the same type on offer in the one selling centre. This certainly looked the case as the market lost ground on the opening two days, but staged somewhat of a surprisingly robust recovery on Thursday to send those growers home reasonably happy. Even with an exchange rate dropping to under parity (under 97.50 US cents this morning) the market opened cheaper on Tuesday recording falls of 10 to 25 cents for all indicators bar 17 and 17.5 micron - just into buyers’ favour. Momentum looked to be building on Wednesday as 17 to 17.5s increased 10 to 15 cents, 18 to 19.5 in sellers’ favour with 20 and 16.5 and finer 15 to 25 cents off the previous day’s quotes. Thursday saw all fleece indicators jump 10 to 30 cents except 17.5 (adding 5 cents). By week’s end the EMI put on 2 cents  to 1192 cents, but in US cents with the softer A$, down 3.65 cents this week to be at its lowest level for 6 weeks, equated to a 41 cent fall to 1162 cents. The reasons for the sudden change of sentiment are varied - from decreasing volumes leading into Christmas and into the new year, a shipping deadline in December, very low stocks of yarn and tops in China and finer types dropping to a level that allowed business to be done on Wednesday night. Whatever caused the turn-around was certainly welcome with hopes of a dearer market through till the sale recess in three weeks more than likely.

Merino skirtings tracked the fleece movements with the best style types firm while the few lower style and burry lots lost ground. Some of the better style and AM’d lots were dearer while 5% VM and higher pieces and bellies suffered the most retreating 30 to 40 cents with most emphasis over 8% VM, but on a very limited offering which may have been a contributing factor to the falls. These burry types should make a recovery next week as increased quantity should satisfy most enquiries. Cardings gained momentum as the sale progressed with the MCI closing the week 9 cents higher at 736 cents. Locks put on 15 to 20 cents; crutchings performed the best of this sector climbing 30 cents with stains adding 20 cents to their previous sale quotes. Crossbreds, as usual in Newcastle, made up very little of the offering, 5% (594 bales) in total with the daily volume especially on Tuesday and Thursday not enough to generate quotes, but remained at last week’s levels. Next week Sydney will offer16000 bales with Don Macdonald & Co. cataloguing 1140 bales first up on Thursday. The outlook, even at this early stage, is for a solid market to gain momentum as the sale progresses.                                                                         

                                                                   Agrisk FDIC Indicative Quotes 25/11/2011

20

21

22

AWEX

1355.5

1322.0

1217.0

Dec-11

1320

1281

1215

Feb-12

1330

1291

1225

Apr-12

1300

1261

1195

Jun-12

1280

1241

1175

Aug-12

1257

1218

1152

Oct-12

1186

1147

1081

Dec-12

1164

1125

1059

Feb-12

1129

1090

1024

MAJOR AUCTION BUYERS (Bales)

1

Viterra Wool

6415

2

Techwool Trading

4549

3

Williams Wool

2645

4

New England Wool

2393

5

G Schneider

2328

6

Fox & Lillie

2082

7

QLD Cotton

1317

8

Sky Wool

1291

9

PJ Morris

959

                       

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)                                                 AUD/USD Currency Exchange

                Eastern 1192 cents (é2) compared with 18/11/11                                   0.9745 ê 0.0365 compared with 18/11/11

                Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

                Northern 1231 cents (ê1) compared with 18/11/11

18 November 2011

Friday, November 18, 2011

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 18th November, 2011

Northern Micron Indices Comparison: Source of information: AWEX

AWEX
INDEX

This Week
18/11/11

Last Week
11/11/11

Change

Last Year
18/11/10

Yearly
Change

18

1530

1589

-59

1632

-102

19

1438

1473

-35

1306

+132

20

1354

1390

-36

1039

+315

21

1297

1326

-29

1003

+294

22

1206

1238

-32

960

+246

23

1102n

1126n

-24

917

+185

26

763n

770n

-7

696

+67

28

625

632

-7

499

+126

30

580

598

-18

444

+136

32

551n

565n

-14

409

+142

MC

727

725

+2

649

+78

NEWCASTLE UNDER PRESSURE

The wool market again suffered from a nervous Northern Hemisphere mood, wracked with worry over the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the ability to repay without triggering another global recession. With the implementation of new measures in Italy to repay debt, following the appointment of a new Prime Minister, the true extent of their debt came to light. The debt is in the order of 2 Trillion Euro - doubling most previous estimates. This amounts to more than Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland combined! With this cloud of uncertainty around, the market recorded double digit falls on both days in all three selling centres. The 2.4% fall in the EMI equated to a drop of 29 cents to see it under 1200 cents again and 38 cents under its most recent peak in early November. Fine microns took the brunt of the falls with 18.5 and finer giving up 50 to 90 cents. The medium and broad types were not as adversely affected falling 25 to 35 cents in the 19 to 23 micron ranges with the broadest types just 10 cents down. Even with the falling market some good results were obtained. One 19 micron lot with 1.7 VM and 27nkt made 1462 cents clean with the indicator at 1438. An FNF, 17.1 and 47nkt line made 1700 cents clean with the indicator at 1681. Some of the burry and tender lots were more keenly sought after than their sounder FNF counter-parts as some orders with 1.5 VM minimum are struggling to be filled with large volumes of FNF types coming through the auction system.

Skirtings were unable to sustain their good run of rises over the past month. The opening day just held their ground with 20 microns easing 20 cents. Most falls occurred on Thursday as 19 micron and finer (under 5% VM) slipped 20 to 30 cents with the broader and burrier lots holding their ground. Cardings bucked the negative trend with all types and descriptions in sellers’ favour to lift the MCI by 2 cents to 727. Crossbreds again suffered under the weight of volume as 28s and finer lost up to 10 cents with the 30 micron and broader categories 15 to 20 cents lower.

Even with European debt worries, talk of a recovery in the market is common on the show-floor. Whether this happens pre or post Christmas is hard to pick, but some are talking a rise of some sort either side of the New Year. Newcastle will hold its final sale of the year next week with any sort of price rise for the finer types a long shot. This sector of the market has taken the biggest hit over the last 3 months and any substantial rise would be most welcome. But even with a softer exchange rate most woolgrowers will drive back up the New England Highway disappointed with their prices. 

                                                  

                                                                   Agrisk FDIC Indicative Quotes 11/11/2011

20

21

22

AWEX

1387.5

1332.0

1238.0

Dec-11

1360

1321

1255

Feb-12

1360

1321

1255

Apr-12

1334

1295

1229

Jun-12

1322

1283

1217

Aug-12

1306

1267

1201

Oct-12

1235

1196

1130

Dec-12

1213

1174

1108

Feb-12

1178

1139

1073

MAJOR AUCTION BUYERS (Bales)

1

Viterra Wool

4493

2

Fox & Lillie

3726

3

Techwool Trading

3513

4

QLD Cotton

2679

5

Williams Wool

2576

6

Lempriere

1908

7

PJ Morris

1632

8

Sky Wool

903

9

G Schneider/West Coast Wools

756

                       

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)                                                   AUD/USD Currency Exchange

                Eastern 1190 cents (ê29) compared with 11/11/11                                   1.0110 ê 0.0030 compared with 11/11/11

                Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

                Northern 1232 cents (ê29) compared with 11/11/11