Weekly Market Reports


16 November 2018

Friday, November 16, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 16th November, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S20/18

This Week

M20/18

Last Sale

S19/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2445

2403

2495

-50

2494

-49

18

2278

2248

2318

-40

2303

-25

19

2104

2100

2109

-5

2009

+95

20

2057

2071

2050

+7

1783

+274

21

2048

2058

2043

+5

1647

+401

22

-

2085n

-

-15 (M)

1548n (M)

+537 (M)

26

1140n

1126

1143n

-3

1075

+65

28

760

765

745n

+15

768

-8

30

663n

684

636n

+27

584

+79

MC

1100

1114n

1020

+80

1382n

-282

WOOLGROWERS VOTE FOR 1.5%

The recent Woolpoll voting results have finally been released after the closest vote on record. Like most political elections, preferences had to come into play to determine a winner as first-hand results were too close to call between the 2 favoured options, 1.5% and 2%. After the final tally of preferences the 1.5% levy won by 52.5% over 47.5% for the current rate of 2% to be retained. Despite the call for the levy to be held at 2% from AWI, various industry groups lobbied for the lower option despite the forecasted less revenue due to less wool being sold and with less finances coming in putting some projects at risk. The new levy will commence from July 2019.      

For just the 4th time in 13 weeks - since the big rise in mid August - the AWEX EMI took a turn for the better, with a modest 5 cent gain to 1781. Talk of a recovery or the market bottoming out has been in the wings for 2-3 sales now but only came to fruition this sale due mainly to a buoyant XB and carding market. The large volume of dusty, fine and tender types < 19 micron saw these wools lose 35 to 55 cents whereas the odd lot with “good specs” gained 40 to 60 cents. Broader microns managed to hold their ground to finish in sellers’ favour. A much higher acceptance of these current prices by growers saw just 6% of the Sydney fleece catalogue passed-in.

The big movers in the market were in Room 2. Skirtings had an up and down sale as the opening day’s losses of 20 to 30 cents were regained in the closing session to see this sector finish unchanged to sellers’ favour. The big mover was the carding sector. After getting hammered since the record peak of 1563 cents in mid September to last sale’s low of 1020 (a 543 cent collapse – 35%) the 3 centres averaged a 90 cent gain as all types in this sector added 50 to 150 cents to their previous values. Crossbreds were also buoyed by the renewed buyer competition increasing by up to 30 cents.

Could this finally be the bottom of this price cycle? It may well be if all other sectors follow the lead of cardings as a Chinese delegation was here this week and were keen to purchase carding types having been out of the market for several weeks. Also of note was the lift in prices of inferior fleece types by 40 cents late in the final session. The market in Euro terms gained 1.1% even with the ascendency in this currency by 3.5% over the past 3 weeks indicating increased support for the better European types despite China’s absence from the market. Many “good judges” are predicting a dearer market through to Christmas - hope their on the money!!

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 16 November 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

5-Dec-18

1990

1990

 
21

22-May-19

1910

1910

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

3842

2

Tianyu Wool

3232

3

Endeavour Wool

2641

4

Fox & Lillie

2420

5

Seatech Ind.

2367

6

Aust. Merino

2252

7

PJ Morris

1881

8

Vic. Wool Proc.

1012

9

Kathaytex

825

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1781 cents é 5 cents compared with 9/11/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1819 cents é 10 cents compared with 9/11/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7273 ê 0.0005 compared with 9/11/2018

9 November 2018

Friday, November 09, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 9th November, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S19/18

This Week

M19/18

Last Sale

S18/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2495

2387

2555

-60

2488

+7

18

2318

2207

2377

-59

2283

+35

19

2109

2107

2238

-129

2005

+104

20

2050

2056n

2153

-103

1764

+286

21

2043

2064n

2139

-96

1645

+398

22

-

2100n

-

-69 (M)

1560 (M)

+540 (M)

26

1143n

1119

1189n

-46

1103

+40

28

745n

751

778

-33

815

-70

30

636n

670

661n

-25

616

+20

MC

1020

1045n

1045

-25

1348n

-328

THE END OF AN ERA AT AWI

AWI Chairman, Wal Merriman announced today that he had stood down as Chairman of the company after 13 years in the top job. His decision came just prior to the AGM in two weeks time to allow the incoming Chair, Colette Garnsey, time to prepare for the next busy year. Wal’s contribution has been enormous and one hopes his tenure is remembered as one who steered and guided the company back into marketing and putting wool back on the stage in the world fashion industry. He leaves his position with the company in a strong financial position with a list of many significant achievements for the wool grower shareholders.

It seems nothing at the moment can influence the buyers into a positive change of sentiment as the market lurched further into negative territory. Each region recorded similar losses (74 to 82 cents) as the AWEX EMI retreated to the tune of 78 cents to 1776. In US$ terms the fall was not as severe, a 29 cent fall to 1293 this due the FRX ascending against the A$ by 1.5 cents. Even though falls were across the board, fortunes were reversed from the previous few sales as the < 18.5 micron escaped the bigger losses of their broader counterparts (45 to 70 cents) as 19 and coarser collapsed by 95 to 130 cents - a sign that the gap between the fine and broad microns was too close as in the past few sales the <19 micron have been falling dramatically and broader types not so. Only the very best style lots with good length and strength results escaped the carnage giving up 20/40 cents.

Skirtings also came under the pump as losses across all microns, VM, styles and lengths totaled another 50 to 100 cents. Cardings again copped a caning as some buyers were still sitting on the side-lines as all types in this sector were quoted 60 to 100 cents behind the previous series. Crossbreds took reasonable hits as well with a cut-off point around 26 micron. Finer than this the falls ranged from 50 to 100 cents while coarser types were adjusted down by 20/30 cents.

After last series relatively minor falls talk of the falling market reversing its fortunes was widespread. That was until the FRX shifted in favour of the 3 major wool trading destinations as the A$ jumped and buyers let the market freefall again. Talk is still strong that the market is very close to the bottom.

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 9 November 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

23-Jan-19

1980

1980

21 8-May-19  1910 1910 

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Endeavour Wool

2548

2

Fox & Lillie

2531

3

Tianyu Wool

2411

4

Techwool

2383

5

Seatech Ind.

2094

6

PJ Morris

1823

7

Aust. Merino

1507

8

Michell Aust.

714

9

G Schneider

668

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1776 cents ê 78 cents compared with 2/11/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1809 cents ê 82 cents compared with 2/11/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7278 é 0.0149 compared with 2/11/2018

2 November 2018

Friday, November 02, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 2nd November, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S18/18

This Week

M18/18

Last Sale

S17/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2555

2532n

2582

-27

2454

+101

18

2377

2343

2397

-20

2246

+131

19

2238

2221

2258

-20

1968

+270

20

2153

2141

2175

-22

1713

+440

21

2139

2126

2153

-14

1608

+531

22

-

2169n

-

+4 (M)

1503 (M)

+666 (M)

26

1189n

1210

-

-

1048

+141

28

778

778

795

-17

728

+50

30

661n

700

671n

-10

536

+125

MC

1045

1116n

1143

-98

1289n

-244

NEXT WEEK ... THE RECOVERY??

Hope that the change of fortunes in Fremantle last Thursday could be a trigger for a market recovery were short lived as the falling market accelerated as the sale progressed. All 3 centres recorded double digit losses (20/30 cents) as the AWEX EMI peeled off by another 20 cents (1%) to 1854. Losses were consistent across all microns, 15 to 30 cents as again buyers struggled to cope with the large volume of drought-affected, fine, low yielding and tender types coming onto the market as growers dug their toes in to pass-in 16% of the national fleece catalogue.

The skirting sector was the best performer of any as losses were kept to the barest minimum as all types and descriptions were quoted as “in buyers favour”. Cardings again bore the brunt of buyer resistance as heavy losses over both sale days saw the MCI shed 98 cents in Sydney to 1045, a whopping 518 cents from the record peak of 1563 in early September. Growers were caught out by the magnitude of the losses as the clearance rate was only 73%. Crossbreds also looked to escape the big losses of the past few sales as most microns gave up 10 to 20 cents.

Another tough sale as the market fell but did perhaps mask an underlying change of sentiment as the fall in A$ terms can be somewhat attributed to the ascending FRX, up by 0.75%. The 3 other main currencies (US$, Euro and the Chinese Yuan) that are used in wool trading prices were unchanged to buyers’ favour. Demand was stronger from the outset and the only real problem is still the over-supply of sub 18.5 micron types not suitable for European manufacturers but buyer interest is on the up as the price gap between these and 19s to 21s is only 110 to 160 cents compared to 170 to 230 cents at the market’s peak in August making these finer microns good value when compared to their broader cousins.

These past few sales have demonstrated that “demand is still king” above all else. Factors like supply, FRX and quality all play their part in price determination but demand is the no.1 factor that dictates price movements and, if demand isn’t there, prices will fall no matter how much other factors are or are not in play. The “demand” component that goes all the way to the retailer has manufacturers worried that consumers will be able to afford these dearer price levels for the Northern Hemisphere winter collection which is in stores now.

The shrinking quantity is again in the news as the latest AWTA figures released for October showed a fall of 5.9% from  October, 2017, and the progressive total for the season (July to October) is back by 9.7% (102.7mkg) to 118.8mkg compared to last year. This equates to 93,700 bales less offered this season than last, more than 2 selling weeks. Hopefully the market can take a turn for the better next week!!! 

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 2 November 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

28-Nov-18

2130

2130

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Techwool

3514

2

Fox & Lillie

3064

3

Endeavour Wool

2472

4

Tianyu Wool

2451

5

Seatech Ind.

2407

6

Kathaytex

1758

7

Modiano

1131

8

Aust. Merino

897

9

G Schneider

652

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1854 cents ê 20 cents compared with 26/10/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1891 cents ê 23 cents compared with 26/10/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7129 é 0.0049 compared with 26/10/2018

26 October 2018

Friday, October 26, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 26th October, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S17/18

This Week

M17/18

Last Sale

S16/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2582

2566

2743

-161

2377

+205

18

2397

2382

2530

-133

2201

+196

19

2258

2241

2330

-72

1920

+338

20

2175

2158

2262

-87

1668

+507

21

2153

2163

2223

-70

1560

+593

22

-

2165

-

-38 (M)

1491n (M)

+674 (M)

26

-

-

1301n

-

1014

-

28

795

776

-

-70 (M)

707

+88

30

671n

700n

701n

-30

515

+156

MC

1143

1156n

1299

-156

1233n

-90

ALL TYPES COP A CANING!

Buyer sentiment changed from bad to worse this sale as losses exploded to, in many cases, triple figures with the EMI almost falling a triple figure amount! The AWEX EMI collapsed by 96 cents to 1874, its largest weekly fall for 15 years with the opening day’s 72 cent reduction also the biggest daily fall since 2003. From the original national roster 38,700 bales 7% was withdrawn and 24% was passed-in (highest since February 2014) to have just 26,400 bales sold. The finer end of the market bore the brunt of the collapse as < 18.5 lost 110 to 165 cents with the 19s and broader losing 40 to 90 cents as no type or micron was immune to the big falls.

The news was no better in Room 2 as all sectors suffered. Skirtings took a massive hit as all types, regardless of length, micron or VM, gave up 130 to 200 cents. Cardings also felt the full force of buyer resistance as the 3 centres averaged falls of 138 cents as all types in this sector fell 100 to 200 cents as the MCI is now below last year’s level. As was the case last series, Crossbreds were the least affected as losses ranged from 10 cents for the broader microns to 70 cents for 28s and finer.

No-one can or would even try to predict a market movement like the one we’ve witnessed, be it up 125 cents like Sale 7 or this series, a fall of 96 cents. Reasons??: the FRX, no it fell by half a cent; the quality of the offering or quantity, unlikely; the fact that higher prices have been in vogue for some time and manufacturers are struggling to pass on these higher prices to retailers is  highly likely. Once the pull-back started after Sale 7 we had 5 weeks of stable prices then 3 series of relative calm before last week’s fall. The EMI has lost 242 cents since mid August but is still 300 cents (19%) higher than the same sale 12 months ago with the increases in all merino microns 200 to 650 cents to the good.

Most ram sales have finished in this area now with the focus moving to the Southern part of the state. On the whole most studs have reported good clearance rates and higher averages than in past years despite some clients not needing rams due to the dire season and not risking joining’s and large ewe and lamb losses. One sale of note was Grogansworth at Bowning near Yass selling 85% of the offering to top at $6,500 with an average of  2,155. Only 1 week left to vote for Woolpoll 2018 if you’re eligible - just 6200 growers have voted so far. Hopefully the dearer fleece prices in Fremantle yesterday (+5 to 15) will be enough to change saleroom sentiment and stop the rot!!

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 26 October, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

28-Nov-18

2150

2150

21

17-Apr-19

2050

2050

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Tianyu

2701

2

Seatech Ind.

2391

3

Techwool

2329

4

Fox & Lillie

1939

5

Kathaytex

1507

6

Endeavour Wool

1126

7

G Schneider

942

8

Aust. Merino

891

9

Michell Aust.

767

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1874 cents ê 96 cents compared with 19/10/2018

 

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1914 cents ê 107 cents compared with 19/10/2018

 

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7080 é 0.0053 compared with 19/10/2018

19 October 2018

Friday, October 19, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 19th October, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX 

INDEX

This Week

S16/18

This Week

M16/18

Last Sale

S15/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly

Change

17

2743   

2700  

2857  

-114  

2338  

+405  

18

2530   

2490  

2593  

-63  

2161  

+369  

19

2330  

2324  

2381  

-51  

1885  

+445  

20

2262  

2238  

2278  

-16  

1657  

+605  

21

2223   

2208  

2243  

-20  

1553  

+670  

22

-  

2203n  

-  

-59 (M)  

1481 (M)  

+722 (M)  

26

1301n   

1336n  

1331  

-30  

1043  

+258  

28

-   

846  

906n  

-14 (M)  

741 (M)  

+105 (M)  

30

701n   

758  

711n  

-10  

521  

+180  

MC

1299   

1304n  

1382  

-83  

1206  

+93  

FINE WOOL GLUT HINDERS MARKET!

Last sale’s recovery was short lived as the market took a turn for the worst as all sectors fell sharply. The 53 cent fall for the AWEX EMI to 1970 was equal to the losses of 3 weeks ago and just shy of the 62 cent collapse in the opening sale of the season. No type was immune from the negative tone despite the superior quality of the selection on offer with the 3rd designated Super-fine sale of the season held in Sydney. The over-supply of sub 17 microns suffered the largest falls (100 to 150 cents) and even more for lots with poor additional measurement results. 19.5 to 17.5 also fell 50 to 75 cents with the broader microns > 20 giving up 20 cents late in the final session. Growers were caught by the size of the losses as 23% of the national fleece catalogue was passed-in.

Skirtings also took a decent hit with the high concentration of < 17.5 micron taking the brunt of the falls ranging from 40 to 60 cents. Cardings were the worst performing sector as the 3 centres averaged 100 cent losses. High flying LKS collapsed to the tune of 100 to 150 cents with CRT/STN giving up 30 to 40 cents as 25% of the Sydney offering failed to sell. Crossbreds looked to escape the carnage of their merino cousins as losses ranged from 10 to 30 cents.

Despite the national catalogue falling further behind last year’s figures, now 74,300 bales which is 2 selling weeks or 13% the market couldn’t sustain last series mini recovery. The vast majority of the offering is still very much drought affected and, as a result, finer than what most Chinese mills are looking for and not up to the standard that the Europeans require. This sale’s merino fleece selection on the East Coast was a full micron finer than the corresponding sale last year. This is backed up by the latest AWTA figures that, despite testing 11% less wool than last season to date, 70% more wool tested below 16.5, 19% more in the 16.6 to 17.5 range and 9% up 17.6 to 18.5 micron bracket.

European demand does remain strong on the “right types” as does interest from India but once outside their specs the price gap is up to 800 cents from the very best types to the worst. Demand remains strong for 19 microns and broader as the large topmakers and indent buyers from China are still active and could lead to better market conditions reappearing sooner rather than later.

Next week’s offering is just shy of 39,000 bales with a bit less fine wool on offer to hopefully see a settled market. The slight lift in the FRX didn’t seem to be a hindrance this sale but most pundits don’t want to see the A$ go higher. Don’t forget just 2 weeks left to vote for Woolpoll 2018, just 10% of eligible growers have voted so far.

                               Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 19 October, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

12-Dec-18

2185

2185


              Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

3896

2

Seatech Ind.

2946

3

Tianyu

2596

4

Endeavour

2216

5

Fox & Lillie

2078

6

Aust. Merino

1701

7

United Wool

1376

8

Modiano

905

9

Kathaytex

799

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1970cents ê 53 cents compared with 12/10/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2021 cents ê 49 cents compared with 12/10/2018



AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7133 é 0.0063 compared with 12/10/2018

12 October 2018

Friday, October 12, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 12th October, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX

INDEX

This Week 

S15/18 

This Week  

M15/18  

Last Sale  

S14/18 

Sydney Change

Last Year   

Sydney   

  Sydney Yearly  

Change

17

2857   

2775   

2869   

-12   

2301   

+558   

18

2593   

2563   

2583   

+10   

2156   

+437   

19

2381   

2389   

2346   

+35   

1886   

+495   

20

2278   

2278   

2225   

+53   

1681n   

+597   

21

2243   

2263   

2186   

+57   

1589n   

+654   

22

-   

2262   

-   

+96 (M)   

1502 (M)   

+760 (M)   

26

1331   

-   

1351n   

-20   

1053   

+278   

28

906n   

860   

904n   

+2   

753   

+153   

30

711n   

768   

701n   

+10   

526   

+185   

MC

1382   

1410n   

1385   

-3   

1188n   

+194   

MARKET ON THE UPWARD TREND, STORMS STILL PATCHY

The wool market did what everyone was hoping for after last Thursday’s solid finish to that series. Good gains over the 2 days had the AWEX EMI recapture almost a third of its losses from the previous 3 sales, up by 31 cents to sit back over the 2000 cent mark at 2023. The relative stability of the FRX saw the EMI in $US post a 20 cent gain to 1430. The biggest benefactors were the broader microns, > 19 up by 35 to 60 cents as finer microns were a touch cheaper bar the superior types that were quoted 50/60 dearer under renewed competition.

Skirtings also followed the lead from their fleece wool counterparts ascending by 20 to 30 cents with emphasis on < 5% VM. Cardings had a flat sale after LKS gave up 10/20 cents while STN added a similar amount. This halted the steep falls of the past 3 sales (178 cents) after setting a new record in early September. Crossbreds had an up and down series as < 26s lost 20 to 30 cents while broader types added up to 10 cents.

The market certainly benefitted from the lower $A v $US rate on Wednesday as the conversion rate was at its best for almost 3 years. The lift in the market a relief for growers as many thought the correction was in the wind for last sale. Exporters scrambled to cover off inventory as some of the larger top-makers and indent buyers have made the decision to ramp up their purchases to ensure supply for upcoming increased machinery demands. Focus is well and truly on a shortfall in supply and a major concern for all in the processing chain. We are already 64,500 bales (12%) behind last season’s volume offered with this figure to become larger. With this in mind the Aust. Wool Prod. Forecasting Committee will meet on 14th November, 4 weeks earlier than was scheduled to give an updated report on how the numbers will be crunched re forecasted volumes post-Christmas something the Global Textile industry will be keeping a very close eye on.

All growers should have now received information for the Woolpoll 2018 vote. There are only 3 weeks left to vote either by reply paid mail, a toll free number (1800 211 736) or online at www.woolpoll.com.au AWI has been holding a series of info seminars to talk about marketing and research and the vote on the level of wool tax growers can vote on 1 of 5 options. Meetings at Dunedoo and Wellington saw about 30 growers at each - AWI stressed the importance of voting and how the reduced volume of wool sold will affect the amount of tax to be collected thus putting some projects at risk due to less wool tax revenue. Market should be stable with 37,000 bales on offer.        

                                     Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 12 October, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

23-Jan-19

2200

2200

21

10-Apr-19

2165

2165

 

                 Main Buyers (this week)

1

Techwool

3866

2

Tianyu

3183

3

Fox & Lillie

3011

4

Modiano

2172

5

Aust. Merino

1946

6

PJ Morris

1639

7

Michell Aust.

1564

8

Seatech Ind.

1398

9

Lempriere

1072

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2023cents é 31 cents compared with 5/10/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2070 cents é 20 cents compared with 5/10/2018



AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7070 ê 0.0010 compared with 5/10/2018

5 October 2018

Friday, October 05, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 8th October, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison


AWEX INDEX

This Week

S14/18

This Week

M14/18

Last Sale

S13/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year Sydney

Sydney Yearly Change

17

2869

2773

2948

-79

2253

+616

18

2583

2542

2615

-32

2112

+471

19

2346

2346

2358

-12

1844

+502

20

2225

2221

2220

+5

1654

+571

21

2186

2166

2178

+8

1571

+615

22

-

2166

-

-4 (M)

1500n (M)

+666 (M)

26

1351n

1443n

1401n

-50

1069n

+282

28

904n

880

-

-30 (M)

788

+116

30

701n

729

-

-1 (M)

535

+166

MC

1385

1438n

1419

-34

1163n

+222

HIT AND MISS BUT GREAT IF YOU WERE LUCKY!

Some great falls were recorded over the past couple of days. Sadly some areas that needed it the most had little reprieve but around Dubbo up to 65mm fell and north of Brewarrina 50mm, so there’s a few who are smiling today.
The wool market didn’t have a great week offering 39,261 bales with the EMI losing another 21 cents which makes it 100 cents in the last three weeks. Most of the pain was felt at the very fine end with 16.5 losing 100 cents this week. The other sector to record significant losses was the burry types and, as the VM rose, the discounts went in step. The middle micron and low VM types actually fared quite well posting gains particularly on the final day giving some confidence that we may be about to turn the corner. The dollar did plunge yesterday to be almost two cents lower than last week so hopefully this will help arrest the fall. On that, currency movements cannot be blamed on the easing market as the EMI in USD terms over the past three weeks has fallen roughly the same amount.
As we said a few weeks ago two areas of concern are that cardings historically appear unsustainable and have been supply driven for some time and the remainder of the merino market is now in a supply driven phase whereas, up until recently, it was demand driven. The fear of supply will see erratic movements as processors from time to time will scramble to source raw material. All eyes are on the monthly data coming out of AWTA and this week the July-September data was released showing nationally a decline of 11.4% less wool tested and September, in isolation, was a scary 19.3%. NSW for September was down 33% compared to last year!
Just a reminder for those who wish to hear first hand about AWI’s performance and projects, particularly with WoolPoll on there will be a lunchtime event at Dunedoo Showground next Monday at 11am, and a 5pm meeting at the Wellington Soldiers Club. We urge you to make the time to come along, have a listen, ask questions and take some time out. Please call 1800 070 099 to register at no cost.

Next week a smaller offering of 34,500 bales will be offered with hopes pinned on a turnaround in fortunes which would go well with more rain!

Ag Concepts Fwd Prices at 5/10/2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

28-Nov-18

2200

2200

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Tianyu

4481

2

Techwool

4325

3

Seatech Ind.

3871

4

Fox & Lillie

3337

5

Aust. Merino

3336

6

PJ Morris

1711

7

Endeavour Wool

1393

8

Michell Aust.

1317

9

Kathaytex Aust.

1154

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

1992 cents ê 21 cents compared with 28/09/2018

 

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2050 cents ê 24 cents compared with 28/09/2018

  

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

7080 ê 0.0178 compared with 28/09/2018

28 September 2018

Friday, September 28, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 28th September, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

    AWEX INDEX    

This Week    

S13/18    

This Week    

M13/18    

Last Sale    

S12/18    

Sydney    

Change   

 Last Year   

 Sydney   

    Sydney      

     Yearly   Change      

   17    

2948

2822

2988

-40

2238

+710

   18    

2615

2570

2688

-73

2072

+533

   19    

2358

2349

2429

-71

1791

+567

   20    

2220

2217

2294

-74

1597

+623

   21    

2178

2173

2243

-65

1532n

+646

   22    

-

2170n

-

-52 (M)

1476n (M)

+694 (M)

   26    

1401n

1473n

1433n

-32

1093n

+308

   28    

-

910

944n

-49 (M)

813 (M)

+97 (M)

   30    

-

730

728n

-26 (M)

563 (M)

+167 (M)

   MC    

1419

1487n

1531

-112

1139n

+280

60,000 BALES DOWN BY WEEK 13.... LONG WAY TO GO!

It was another lacklustre week as indicators tumbled across all three centres. Due to AFL fever in Melbourne and public holiday today, the Melbourne series started on Tuesday in isolation and continued the trend of buyer resistance. The EMI has shed 81 cents in the last two weeks with the merino carding indicator losing 144 cents over the fortnight. The dollar was basically unchanged this week so the relatively small offering of just over 32,000 bales could only blame an increasing quantity of “off types” for the decline. Hardest hit were the droughty higher VM types over 4% where buyers were very selective. The carding market seems to have run into some real issues and one cannot but feel that prices over 1500 cents for these types are very hard to sustain. The exporters we have spoken with who have recently returned from China aren’t overly nervous about the price - it’s more fear of supply that is of concern. Yes, the last six month upward shift hasn’t fully been digested and there will be an increase in blending but the Chinese are very enthusiastic about using wool and keeping it foremost in their products. Nearly all mills are operating hand to mouth with no stock and we know there is little in the pipeline here of unsold wool, so the year to date offering statistic of 59,611 less bales offered is a real concern for all.

All woolgrowers should have received their Woolpoll voting packs this week with information about AWI’s activities and future plans. The important issue for all to attend to is voting for the wool levy for the next three years. The wool levy has been 2% since AWI started in 2001 and it is recommended by the Board that this rate continue. Initially the whole levy went towards R & D but, since 2010, AWI re-entered marketing and now spends 60% of it’s income on marketing. There is tangible evidence that this has had a significant impact and certainly helped put the market where it is. Whilst levy income has increased as the price has, downturn in production will severely impact and offset this. I am keen to see the levy remain at 2%.

For those who wish to hear first hand about AWI’s performance and projects there will be a lunchtime event at Dunedoo 11am, Monday, October 8 and a 5pm meeting at Wellington followed by drinks and nibbles the same day. We urge you to make the time to come along and take some time out. Please call 1800 070 099 to register at no cost.

Next week a larger offering of 42,500 bales will be offered with maybe a hint of levelling out late in Fremantle yesterday giving us hope of a firm market next week.

                             Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 28 September, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

28-Nov-18

2165

2165

         

Main Buyers (this week)

1

Seatech Ind.

3112

2

Tianyu

2759

3

Techwool

2510

4

Fox & Lillie

2124

5

New England

1760

6

PJ Morris

1621

7

Aust. Merino

1498

8

G Schneider

1271

9

Kathaytex Aust.

786

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2013cents ê 54 cents compared with 21/09/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2074 cents ê 66 cents compared with 21/09/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7258 up 0.0001 compared with 21/08/2018 

21 September 2018

Friday, September 21, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 21st September, 2018

 AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX INDEX

This Week

S12/18

This Week

M12/18

Last Sale

S11/18

Sydney

Change

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney

 Yearly Change

            17       

2988

2893

3008 

-20

2228

+760

            18       

   2688   

2633

2708

-20

2072

+616

            19       

2429

2397

2439

-10

1778

+651

            20       

2294

2258

2303

-9

1588

+706

            21       

2243

2229

2274

-31

1540

+703

            22       

 -

2222

-

-31 (M)

1490 (M)

+712 (M)

            26       

1433n

1504n

1493n

-60

1101

+332

            28       

944n

959

975

-31

813

+131

            30       

728n

756n

738n

-10

586

+142

    MC

1531 

1568n

1563

-32

1113n

+418


CURRENCY MOVEMENT DICTATES PRICE
Another busy week in the world of wool: for the 4th sale in a row the AWEX EMI had a minor adjustment, shaving 27 cents (1.3%) to 2067 from the last series. For the past month the range has been from 2094 to this sale’s level. The market fell just 3 cents in $US terms to 1500 cents due to the spike in the FRX. Unlike the last 3 sales < 19 micron were caught up in the falls as losses ranged from 10 to 20 cents for 20s and finer and broader types 20/30 cheaper barring the very best fine types, virtually unchanged from previous levels. 
The skirting market suffered larger losses, finer types < 17 micron fell by 40 to 60 cents while all others gave back 20/30 cents. Cardings retreated from their new record high to see its first losses since early July (a 32 cent fall to 1531) with LKS the main culprit down by 40 to 60 cents while STN/CRT only fell by 10 to 15. Crossbreds also took a hit, losses ranged from 10 cents for broader wools to 60 cents for the finer microns.
If the Nanjing Wool Conference was the stimulus for an immediate dearer market we might have to wait a bit longer to see a lift. The ascendency of the $A looked to be the main driver behind this week’s fall to delay any positive movement for the time being. More news from the conference was the China/US trade war with textiles caught up in about 10% impact of the $400 billion tariff total ($4 billion) but thankfully the impact is on industrial Geo textiles and carpet exports to the USA. Of course price was a hot topic for the Chinese but not complaining about these new levels, more trying to adapt to the new prices and survive with better management strategies and improving production techniques to allay any further costs as they are fully aware of the impact of the drought on the quality of the wool arriving at their mills and the effect on the shrinking volume.
The woollen sector is under pressure as the double-faced fabric sector is suffering from high finished stock levels, excess capacity, retailers wanting more complicated products and subdued demand and the “fake fur” segment is flat at best. The positive sector which has led the price revival over the past 2 years is the sport and active-wear market that has expanded rapidly and will continue to do so especially from demand from the local Chinese consumer. The Chinese manufacturers are concentrating on this growing local demand rather than higher margin export markets where more volume can be sold to the “young hip” Chinese consumer that wants to support locally made products.   
Another good week as ram sales continue around the state.  Gullengamble from Yeoval sold 121 rams for a top price of $6500 to average $2336. Parkdale from Dubbo had a 100% clearance with a top price of $2800 to average $1120. Coddington Uardry Polls from Wellington cleared all 100 rams to average $2106 with a top price of $9000 and the famous Merryville Stud at Boorowa cleared 140 rams with a top price of $6000 twice to average $1986.
Congratulations must go to Steven Mudford from Gilgandra who broke the world record for a single stand shearing of wethers at the Parkdale Stud. He shore 373 for the 8 hours, averaging 93/run, that works out at 1 sheep every one and half minutes!! Well done.  Market direction next week will depend on the FRX movements so the experts say.  

Main Buyers (This Week)

1

Seatech

4099 

2

Techwool

2654

3

Fox & Lillie

2188

4

Kathaytex Aust.

2092

5

New England

1417

6

Tianyu Wool

1186

7

Aust. Merino

1046

8

Lempriere

994

9

PJ Morris

992

 

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2067 cents é 27 cents compared with 14/09/2018

 

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2140 cents é 00 cents compared with 14/09/2018

 

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7257 ê 0.0079 compared with 14/09/2018


14 September 2018

Friday, September 14, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Week Ending 14th September, 2018

AWEX Northern Micron Indices Comparison

AWEX

INDEX

This Week 

S11/18 

This Week

M11/18

Last Sale

S10/18

Sydney

Change 

Last Year

Sydney

Sydney Yearly 

Change

17

3008  

2944

2989

+19    

2207

+801

18

2708 

2652

2669

+39    

2078

+630

19 

2439 

2438

2443

-4    

1775

+664

20 

2303 

2306

2324

-21   

1595

+708

21 

2274 

2254

2285

-11

1547

+727

22 

2253

-6 (M)

1463 (M)

+790 (M)

26 

1493n 

1526n

1486n

+7

1107

+386

28 

975 

968

968

+7

816

+159

30 

738n 

743n

728n

+10

601

+137 

MC 

1563 

1575n

1563

0

1094

+469

MILLION DOLLAR RAM SALE!

Plenty happening in the world of wool this week as the market stagnated, a record breaking ram sale and the annual Nanjing wool conference. The market followed last week’s pattern - a dearer opening session ending with a softer tone on the final day. The AWEX EMI advanced by just 6 cents to 2094 (37% higher than a year ago) helped along by the sub 19 micron indicators gaining 10 to 45 cents as the broader edge, 20 to 24 slipped by 10/20. The FRX remained stable around the 72 cent mark after falling to below 71 cents early in the week, its lowest point for 2 years. This enabled the EMI in $US to also add 6 cents to its value, up to 1503 as just 68 bales of FLC were passed-in in Sydney.

All types of skirtings made subtle gains, 10 to 20 cents depending on the level of VM and style. There was very little change in the carding market, the only movement being fine micron LKS back by 10 to cents. Crossbreds also had a sedate sale to have most types appreciate by 5/10 cents.

On property ram sales started with a bang. The first cab off the rank was long time wool client Kerin Poll from Yeoval with a massive 400 ram catalogue. 80+ registered bidders competed on every ram to achieve a top price of $9,000 to average $3026 with a 100% clearance. The sale grossed $1.21m to set a new national record for a single on-property ram sale and certainly set an incredible tone for the remainder of the ram selling season. Some of their new buyers from Victoria, Tasmania and Southern NSW were composite breeders aiming to join theses new rams to their ewes to put a bit more value into their wool clips. Well done to all at Kerin Poll, a great result. Another Macwool client, the famous Haddon Rig stud at Warren, held their sale on Thursday offering 150 horned and 60 poll rams with the top price going to a poll ram at $14,000. In an ever-increasing trend where studs are breeding both types the average for the polls was higher then their horned counterparts, $2887 to $2148 with a 91% clearance  and overall average of $2357. Again, great results for both studs considering the dire season.

It was a situation of “wait and see” this sale as the Nanjing Wool Conference was held and the outcomes will become more apparent in the next few sales. Hard to gauge from bleary-eyed delegates how the mood in China is as most are still in-bound or recovering from a solid 3 days of business and pleasure!!. What everyone is acutely aware of is the shortfall of wool when compared to last season, a dramatic 48,000 bales (13%) or 1 selling week of wool!!  Also on the radar at the conference is the recently introduced environmental protection legislation in China and the cost for mills to implement these new laws, the biggest drama being the effects on scouring effluent and waste water and sludge disposal as water treatment devices are adding significant costs to the scouring process. The USA and China trade war was also discussed at length, more on this next week. 35,000 bales on offer next week, no real change expected.

                        Ag Concepts Fwd Prices as at 14 September, 2018

Micron

Date

Low

High

21

31-Oct-18

2210

2210



Main Buyers (this week)

1

Tianyu

3946

2

Techwool

3703

3

Seatech Ind.

3318

4

Fox & Lillie

2518

5

Aust. Merino

2462

6

Kathaytex

2288

7

Lempriere

2110

8

Michell Aust.

1887

9

New England

1057

Eastern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2094cents é 6 cents compared with 7/09/2018

Northern Market Indicators (AUD cents/kg clean)

2162 cents é 9 cents compared with 7/09/2018

AUD/USD Currency Exchange

0.7178 é 0.0010 compared with 7/09/2018